Poisson Distribution For Football Betting & Trading

Welcome to the Poisson Distribution For Football Betting & Trading. Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events occur with a known constant mean rate and independently of the time since the last event. Poisson distribution has been successfully used in models to predict football scores probabilities and pricing up matches.

By using goals averages for leagues and both involved teams, we calculate teams’ Defence Strength & Attack Strength values.
The next step is to use the Poisson Distribution Formula to find probabilities of all scores from 0-0 to 5-5 to find the most likely score-lines.
Furthermore, we group all the probabilities into results outcomes for various markets such as home or away win, draws, under/over goals markets etc.
Once we have our probabilities, we convert the estimated chances into odds that we can then analyse and compare with the currently available prices.

We provide you with 3 Poisson Distribution Models for Football Betting & Trading

Usually, Poisson Distribution models are calculated on the current season’s stats only. We give you more insight by preparing 3 separate models:

  1. Short Term Model – calculated on stats from current season’s only
  2. Medium Term Model – based on stats from the last 20 matches.
  3. Long Term Model – covering stats from the last 50 matches.

All stats are taken from single competitions only, e.g. for Premier League fixtures, we use only matches from the Premier League. Feel free to browse the Poisson stats below. The upcoming matches are available for FTT & PRO members only.

Poisson Distribution Odds for Win Markets

Poisson Distribution Odds for Under/Over Goals Markets

Poisson Distribution Odds for Other Markets

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