Poisson Distribution Under 3.5 Goals Odds For Football Betting & Trading
Welcome to the Poisson Distribution Under 3.5 Goals Odds for football betting & trading. Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events occur with a known constant mean rate and independently of the time since the last event. Poisson distribution has been successfully used in models to predict football scores probabilities and pricing up matches. Learn more about Poisson here.
We provide you with 3 Poisson Distribution Models for Football Betting & Trading
Usually, Poisson Distribution models are calculated on the current season’s stats only. We give you more insight by preparing 3 separate models:
- Short Term Model*– calculated on stats from current season’s only
- Medium Term Model – based on stats from the last 20 matches.
- Long Term Model – covering stats from the last 50 matches.
All stats are taken from single competitions only, e.g. for Premier League fixtures, we use only matches from the Premier League. Feel free to browse the Poisson stats below. The upcoming matches are available for FTT & PRO members only.
* The short term model needs at least 10 matches of the new season for more reliable odds predictions. At the beginning of the seasons, the CS fields may be empty.
How to use Poisson Distribution odds for football betting & trading?
We calculate all the odds for you, so you don’t need to do any calculations. The 3 Poisson models will give you 3 separate prices for a given outcome.
Let’s take, for example, the over 2.5 goals market and the following figures:
- CS – 1.6
- L20 – 1.7
- L50 – 1.55
Current Over 2.5 goals odds are 1.5.
Looking at the 3 odds figures above, we can quickly state that the 1.5 odds seem to be a poor value for this match as the calculated/fair odds for the 3 given models are significantly higher.
It’s worth noting that the current season’s odds will be more accurate after more matches are played. Therefore, you may want to consider them once there are 10 league game weeks played or so.
Ideally, you would like to find matches with all 3 odds lower than the current available price. However, once you find such matches, you may wish to analyse them in more detail to determine whether your shortlisted picks represent value or try learning about other important reasons for the odds to be suspiciously higher than they should be.
Poisson Distribution Under 3.5 Goals Odds
You are browsing past 2 days matches stats. Current (Today's and 2 days in advance) statistics are available for FTT & PRO members only!
Learn more about our subscription options and subscribe now!M | Date | Country | Competition | KO | Home | Away | CS | L20 | L50 | odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M | Date | Country | Competition | KO | Home | Away | CS | L20 | L50 | odds |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Mongolia | Premier League | 12:00 | Deren | Khangarid | 1.72 | 1.67 | 1.69 | 2.65 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | World | Friendly International Women | 03:00 | United States W | Colombia W | 50.00 | 2.27 | 2.38 | 3.20 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Iceland | Iceland Cup | 20:45 | Selfoss | Víkingur Reykjavík | 1.45 | 1.18 | 1.27 | 1.83 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Finland | Finland Cup | 16:30 | Lahti | JäPS | 3.85 | 1.37 | 1.45 | 1.91 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Australia | Northern Nsw | 10:30 | Valentine | Hamilton Olympic | 1.23 | 1.43 | 1.54 | 1.95 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | USA | USL League Two | 00:00 | South Bend Lions | Toledo Villa | 1.33 | 1.27 | 1.30 | 1.79 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | USA | USL League Two | 01:30 | Tennessee | Peachtree City | 1.12 | 1.09 | 1.15 | 1.59 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Brazil | Paulista U20 | 19:00 | Botafogo SP U20 | Francana U20 | 1.30 | 1.43 | 1.45 | 1.93 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Australia | Northern Nsw | 10:00 | Lake Macquarie | Weston Bears | 3.45 | 1.52 | 1.82 | 1.98 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Malaysia | Super League | 14:00 | Johor Darul Ta'zim | MISC | 2.38 | 1.37 | 1.47 | 1.81 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Australia | Northern Nsw | 10:00 | Maitland | Lambton Jaffas | 1.45 | 1.30 | 1.41 | 1.73 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | USA | USL League Two | 01:00 | Houston FC | Brazos Valley | 1.33 | 2.00 | 2.27 | 2.42 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Norway | NM Cup | 17:00 | Eidsvold | Molde | 3.57 | 1.69 | 2.00 | 2.10 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | World | Friendly International Women | 17:30 | Sweden W | Brazil W | 1.22 | 1.06 | 1.06 | 1.41 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | USA | USL League Two | 00:00 | Nona | FC Florida II | 1.19 | 1.08 | 1.09 | 1.42 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Kazakhstan | First Division | 14:00 | Kaisar | Zhenys | 1.37 | 1.27 | 1.22 | 1.59 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Norway | NM Cup | 19:15 | Vålerenga | Bodø / Glimt | 1.25 | 1.27 | 1.41 | 1.57 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Malaysia | Super League | 14:00 | Terengganu | Negeri Sembilan | 1.00 | 1.09 | 1.37 | 1.38 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Sweden | Superettan | 18:00 | Halmstad | Trelleborg | 1.72 | 1.12 | 1.27 | 1.40 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Sweden | Svenska Cupen | 18:30 | Lindome | GAIS | 1.54 | 1.39 | 1.30 | 1.67 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | China PR | League One | 09:00 | Zibo Sunday | Guangxi Baoyun | 1.69 | 1.05 | 1.10 | 1.33 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Estonia | Meistriliiga | 17:30 | Legion | Paide | 1.35 | 1.56 | 1.59 | 1.84 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Norway | 3. Division - Group 1 | 18:00 | Grorud II | Skeid II | 1.79 | 1.56 | 1.56 | 1.83 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | USA | USL League Two | 00:30 | Tormenta II | Southern Soccer Academy | 1.06 | 1.30 | 1.37 | 1.57 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | USA | USL League Two | 00:00 | Cedar Stars Rush | Westchester Flames | 1.03 | 1.49 | 1.59 | 1.75 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Finland | Finland Cup | 16:00 | Inter Turku | HJK | 1.00 | 1.04 | 1.11 | 1.29 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Finland | Kakkonen | 16:30 | Honka Akatemia | MuSa | 6.25 | 1.49 | 1.59 | 1.73 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara | 14:00 | Dodoma Jiji | KMC | 1.11 | 1.04 | 1.11 | 1.28 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Sweden | Division 2: Sodra Svealand | 19:00 | Huddinge | IFK Eskilstuna | 1.25 | 1.69 | 1.89 | 1.93 |
1 | 29/06/2022 | USA | Major League Soccer | 00:30 | Cincinnati | New York City | 1.18 | 1.27 | 1.37 | 1.50 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Finland | Finland Cup | 17:00 | PK-35 | HIFK | 1.00 | 1.08 | 1.32 | 1.30 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Estonia | Meistriliiga | 16:00 | Kuressaare | Levadia | 1.19 | 1.43 | 1.67 | 1.64 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | USA | USL Championship | 02:50 | San Antonio | Tulsa Roughnecks | 1.59 | 1.52 | 1.69 | 1.73 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | USA | USL League Two | 01:00 | St. Croix | WSA Winnipeg | 1.18 | 1.37 | 1.41 | 1.57 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Mongolia | Premier League | 09:00 | SP Falcons | Ulaanbaatar City | 1.61 | 1.89 | 1.72 | 2.08 |
1 | 28/06/2022 | China PR | Super League | 11:30 | Shandong Luneng | Henan Jianye | 1.00 | 1.15 | 1.25 | 1.33 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Georgia | Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga | 14:30 | Torpedo Kutaisi | Dila | 1.05 | 1.16 | 1.27 | 1.33 |
1 | 29/06/2022 | China PR | Super League | 10:30 | Shenzhen | Tianjin Teda | 1.03 | 1.06 | 1.25 | 1.22 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Finland | Kakkonen | 17:00 | KaaPo | Tampere United | 1.89 | 1.69 | 1.49 | 1.83 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Bangladesh | Premier League | 11:00 | Muktijoddha SKC | Bangladesh Police | 1.19 | 1.14 | 1.16 | 1.28 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Faroe Islands | 1. Deild | 19:30 | B71 | KÍ II | 1.28 | 1.75 | 2.00 | 1.88 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Morocco | Botola Pro | 18:00 | FUS Rabat | Rapide Oued Zem | 1.19 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.25 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | World | Friendly International Women | 16:00 | Turkey W | Azerbaijan W | 1.10 | 1.30 | 1.35 | 1.42 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Iceland | 1. Deild Women | 19:30 | Fjölnir | Víkingur Reykjavík | 1.67 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 1.97 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | USA | USL League Two | 22:00 | New Jersey Copa | Hudson Valley Hammers | 2.63 | 1.75 | 1.85 | 1.87 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | South America | Copa Libertadores | 23:15 | Cerro Porteño | Palmeiras | 1.69 | 1.05 | 1.12 | 1.17 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Morocco | Botola Pro | 18:00 | Ittihad Tanger | Maghreb Fès | 1.05 | 1.03 | 1.05 | 1.14 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Morocco | Botola Pro | 18:00 | Riadi Salmi | Hassania Agadir | 1.09 | 1.06 | 1.08 | 1.17 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Malaysia | Super League | 14:00 | Selangor | Sabah | 1.72 | 1.54 | 1.47 | 1.64 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | South America | Copa Sudamericana | 01:30 | Colo-Colo | Internacional | 1.35 | 1.12 | 1.19 | 1.22 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Iceland | 2. Deild | 19:30 | Völsungur | ÍR | 3.13 | 1.61 | 1.82 | 1.71 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Korea Republic | Korean Cup | 11:00 | Jeonbuk Motors | Suwon Bluewings | 1.03 | 1.16 | 1.11 | 1.25 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Korea Republic | Korean Cup | 11:00 | Ulsan | Bucheon 1995 | 1.11 | 1.27 | 1.20 | 1.36 |
1 | 29/06/2022 | China PR | Super League | 12:30 | Changchun Yatai | Hangzhou | 1.49 | 1.16 | 1.32 | 1.25 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Iraq | Iraqi League | 15:00 | Al Sinaah | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.04 | 1.12 |
1 | 29/06/2022 | China PR | Super League | 08:30 | Shanghai SIPG | Shanghai Shenhua | 1.02 | 1.09 | 1.30 | 1.17 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Finland | Kakkonen | 16:30 | VJS | HJS Akatemia | 1.52 | 1.59 | 1.92 | 1.67 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | South America | Copa Libertadores | 23:15 | Talleres Córdoba | Colón | 1.14 | 1.12 | 1.27 | 1.20 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Morocco | Botola Pro | 18:00 | Raja Casablanca | FAR Rabat | 1.14 | 1.22 | 1.19 | 1.30 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Norway | NM Cup | 17:00 | Byåsen | Sandefjord | 2.56 | 1.96 | 1.61 | 2.02 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Ethiopia | Premier League | 14:00 | Adama Kenema | Dire Dawa Kenema | 1.06 | 1.08 | 1.12 | 1.13 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | South America | Copa Libertadores | 01:30 | Corinthians | Boca Juniors | 1.03 | 1.05 | 1.16 | 1.10 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara | 14:00 | Mbeya Kwanza | Simba | 1.09 | 1.12 | 1.18 | 1.17 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Argentina | Copa Argentina | 22:05 | Gimnasia La Plata | Flandria | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.12 | 1.30 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Brazil | Serie B | 01:30 | Cruzeiro | Sport Recife | 1.01 | 1.10 | 1.18 | 1.14 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Finland | Kakkonen | 16:30 | EPS | SalPa | 1.04 | 1.32 | 1.39 | 1.36 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Singapore | S. League | 12:45 | Home United | Young Lions | 2.08 | 2.17 | 1.92 | 2.20 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara | 14:00 | Kagera Sugar | Polisi Tanzania | 1.03 | 1.04 | 1.11 | 1.07 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Sweden | Superettan | 18:00 | Norrby | Östersunds FK | 1.02 | 1.23 | 1.43 | 1.25 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara | 14:00 | Ruvu Shooting | Tanzania Prisons | 1.05 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.12 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Morocco | Botola Pro | 20:30 | Khouribga | Olympic Safi | 1.14 | 1.15 | 1.23 | 1.17 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara | 14:00 | Azam | Biashara United | 1.11 | 1.19 | 1.16 | 1.20 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Egypt | Premier League | 18:00 | Pyramids FC | ENPPI | 1.25 | 1.35 | 1.25 | 1.36 |
1 | 29/06/2022 | USA | Major League Soccer | 00:30 | Toronto | Columbus Crew | 1.41 | 1.35 | 1.28 | 1.36 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Uzbekistan | Professional Football League | 16:00 | Pakhtakor | Bunyodkor | 1.10 | 1.39 | 2.00 | 1.39 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Indonesia | President Cup | 10:00 | Borneo | Cilegon United | 1.00 | 1.23 | 1.28 | 1.22 |
1 | 29/06/2022 | Japan | J-League | 11:00 | Gamba Osaka | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 1.56 | 1.30 | 1.25 | 1.29 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara | 14:00 | Coastal Union | Geita Gold | 1.12 | 1.14 | 1.08 | 1.13 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Brazil | Serie B | 01:30 | Guarani | Ituano | 1.04 | 1.19 | 1.23 | 1.17 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Kazakhstan | First Division | 13:00 | Yassy Turkistan | Zhetysu | 1.32 | 1.39 | 1.35 | 1.36 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Brazil | Serie B | 23:00 | Náutico | Criciúma | 1.37 | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.17 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Bangladesh | Premier League | 11:00 | Baridhara | Rahmatgonj MFS | 1.06 | 1.49 | 1.52 | 1.42 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Uzbekistan | Professional Football League | 16:00 | Kokand-1912 | Dinamo Samarqand | 1.11 | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.30 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Brazil | Serie B | 23:00 | Grêmio | Londrina | 1.28 | 1.33 | 1.47 | 1.25 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Estonia | Meistriliiga | 15:30 | Tammeka | Trans | 1.41 | 1.54 | 1.43 | 1.46 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Egypt | Premier League | 18:00 | Ghazl El Mehalla | Ismaily | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.14 | 1.13 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | South America | Copa Libertadores | 23:15 | Emelec | Atlético Mineiro | 2.04 | 1.32 | 1.27 | 1.22 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara | 14:00 | Young Africans | Mtibwa Sugar | 1.39 | 1.33 | 1.19 | 1.23 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | USA | US Open Cup | 00:00 | Orlando City | Nashville SC | 1.14 | 1.32 | 1.19 | 1.22 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Brazil | Serie B | 23:00 | Brusque | Bahia | 1.01 | 1.22 | 1.28 | 1.10 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Georgia | Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga | 15:00 | Gagra | Saburtalo | 1.12 | 1.33 | 1.39 | 1.21 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Morocco | Botola Pro | 20:30 | RSB Berkane | Chabab Mohammédia | 1.18 | 1.30 | 1.23 | 1.17 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Iraq | Iraqi League | 15:00 | Al-Qasim | Naft Al-Wasat | 1.19 | 1.28 | 1.25 | 1.13 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Bangladesh | Premier League | 11:00 | Abahani Chittagong | Abahani | 2.78 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.84 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Egypt | Premier League | 20:30 | Zamalek | Ceramica Cleopatra | 1.23 | 1.47 | 1.37 | 1.30 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Faroe Islands | Meistaradeildin | 18:30 | KÍ | NSÍ | 2.63 | 2.22 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Faroe Islands | 1. Deild | 19:45 | NSÍ II | Undrid | 2.44 | 2.27 | 2.17 | 2.09 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Estonia | Meistriliiga | 18:00 | Tallinna Kalev | Nõmme Kalju | 1.49 | 1.79 | 1.64 | 1.61 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Egypt | Premier League | 18:00 | Al Mokawloon | National Bank of Egypt | 1.25 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.17 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | World | Friendly International Women | 21:00 | Portugal W | Australia W | 14.29 | 1.59 | 1.67 | 1.41 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Argentina | Primera B Nacional | 01:15 | Defensores de Belgrano | Chacarita Juniors | 1.59 | 1.32 | 1.20 | 1.11 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Europe | Euro U19 | 16:00 | England U19 | Italy U19 | 1.69 | 1.61 | 1.64 | 1.40 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Brazil | Serie B | 01:30 | Vila Nova | Ponte Preta | 1.01 | 1.33 | 1.22 | 1.11 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | USA | USL Championship | 00:30 | Charleston Battery | Atlanta United II | 1.75 | 1.89 | 1.82 | 1.67 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Argentina | Torneo Federal A | 01:00 | Sportivo Belgrano | Def. de Pronunciamiento | 1.04 | 1.43 | 1.41 | 1.15 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Sweden | Superettan | 18:00 | Jönköpings Södra | Örgryte | 4.76 | 1.72 | 1.49 | 1.44 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | USA | USL Championship | 00:00 | Hartford Athletic | Colorado Springs | 2.08 | 1.92 | 2.38 | 1.62 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | South America | Copa Libertadores | 01:30 | Athletico PR | Libertad | 1.25 | 1.52 | 1.56 | 1.20 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Norway | NM Cup | 17:00 | Kjelsås | Skeid | 1.00 | 1.72 | 1.89 | 1.36 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Canada | Premier League | 00:00 | Forge | Valour | 2.94 | 1.79 | 1.49 | 1.36 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Malawi | Super League | 13:30 | Silver Strikers | TN Stars | 1.27 | 1.69 | 1.61 | 1.25 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Morocco | Botola Pro | 18:00 | Difaâ El Jadida | Youssoufia Berrechid | 1.33 | 1.67 | 1.22 | 1.20 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Bangladesh | Premier League | 11:00 | Saif | Swadhinata KS | 1.96 | 2.22 | 1.85 | 1.74 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Iceland | 2. Deild | 20:15 | Haukar | Thróttur Reykjavík | 1.03 | 2.33 | 2.04 | 1.84 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Morocco | Botola Pro | 18:00 | Mouloudia Oujda | Wydad Casablanca | 1.56 | 1.67 | 1.49 | 1.13 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Kazakhstan | Premier League | 15:00 | Ordabasy | Aksu | 1.32 | 1.79 | 1.49 | 1.24 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Finland | Kakkonen | 17:00 | I-Kissat | GrIFK | 6.67 | 2.56 | 2.50 | 2.00 |
1 | 28/06/2022 | China PR | Super League | 12:30 | Guangzhou R&F | Dalian Yifang | 1.82 | 1.82 | 2.27 | 1.25 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Australia | Queensland Premier League | 11:00 | Redlands United | Sunshine Coast | 2.00 | 2.56 | 3.85 | 1.95 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Georgia | Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga | 18:00 | Dinamo Batumi | Dinamo Tbilisi | 2.86 | 1.92 | 1.28 | 1.31 |
1 | 29/06/2022 | China PR | Super League | 10:00 | Meizhou Hakka | Shijiazhuang Ever Bright | 1.27 | 1.96 | 1.59 | 1.17 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | China PR | League One | 09:00 | Nantong Zhiyun | Qingdao Youth Island | 1.61 | 2.38 | 1.64 | 1.53 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Norway | NM Cup | 17:00 | Moss | Start | 1.06 | 2.38 | 1.72 | 1.50 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Egypt | Premier League | 20:30 | Smouha | Al Ahly | 1.89 | 2.56 | 1.56 | 1.40 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Iceland | 2. Deild | 20:15 | Fjardabyggd / Leiknir | Magni | 5.56 | 3.03 | 3.33 | 1.84 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Iceland | 2. Deild | 19:00 | Njardvík | KF | 4.00 | 3.45 | 2.00 | 2.05 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Norway | NM Cup | 17:00 | Sotra | Haugesund | 1.06 | 3.23 | 1.56 | 1.80 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Brazil | Paulista U20 | 19:00 | Osasco Audax U20 | Sport Club Brasil U20 | 1.56 | 4.00 | 3.57 | 1.90 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Norway | NM Cup | 17:00 | Gjøvik-Lyn | Stabæk | 1.19 | 4.35 | 2.13 | 1.67 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Estonia | Meistriliiga | 16:00 | Flora | Vaprus | 3.45 | 6.67 | 1.82 | 3.34 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Iceland | 2. Deild | 20:15 | Reynir | Víkingur Ólafsvík | 1.05 | 6.25 | 2.08 | 1.87 |