Poisson Distribution Over 3.5 Goals Odds For Football Betting & Trading
Welcome to the Poisson Distribution Over 3.5 Goals Odds for football betting & trading. Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events occur with a known constant mean rate and independently of the time since the last event. Poisson distribution has been successfully used in models to predict football scores probabilities and pricing up matches. Learn more about Poisson here.
We provide you with 3 Poisson Distribution Models for Football Betting & Trading
Usually, Poisson Distribution models are calculated on the current season’s stats only. We give you more insight by preparing 3 separate models:
- Short Term Model*– calculated on stats from current season’s only
- Medium Term Model – based on stats from the last 20 matches.
- Long Term Model – covering stats from the last 50 matches.
All stats are taken from single competitions only, e.g. for Premier League fixtures, we use only matches from the Premier League. Feel free to browse the Poisson stats below. The upcoming matches are available for FTT & PRO members only.
* The short term model needs at least 10 matches of the new season for more reliable odds predictions. At the beginning of the seasons, the CS fields may be empty.
How to use Poisson Distribution odds for football betting & trading?
We calculate all the odds for you, so you don’t need to do any calculations. The 3 Poisson models will give you 3 separate prices for a given outcome.
Let’s take, for example, the over 2.5 goals market and the following figures:
- CS – 1.6
- L20 – 1.7
- L50 – 1.55
Current Over 2.5 goals odds are 1.5.
Looking at the 3 odds figures above, we can quickly state that the 1.5 odds seem to be a poor value for this match as the calculated/fair odds for the 3 given models are significantly higher.
It’s worth noting that the current season’s odds will be more accurate after more matches are played. Therefore, you may want to consider them once there are 10 league game weeks played or so.
Ideally, you would like to find matches with all 3 odds lower than the current available price. However, once you find such matches, you may wish to analyse them in more detail to determine whether your shortlisted picks represent value or try learning about other important reasons for the odds to be suspiciously higher than they should be.
Poisson Distribution Over 3.5 Goals Odds
You are browsing past 2 days matches stats. Current (Today's and 2 days in advance) statistics are available for FTT & PRO members only!
Learn more about our subscription options and subscribe now!M | Date | Country | Competition | KO | Home | Away | CS | L20 | L50 | odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M | Date | Country | Competition | KO | Home | Away | CS | L20 | L50 | odds |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Morocco | Botola Pro | 18:00 | Mouloudia Oujda | Wydad Casablanca | 2.78 | 2.50 | 3.03 | 6.00 |
1 | 29/06/2022 | China PR | Super League | 10:00 | Meizhou Hakka | Shijiazhuang Ever Bright | 4.76 | 2.04 | 2.70 | 5.00 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Argentina | Primera B Nacional | 01:15 | Defensores de Belgrano | Chacarita Juniors | 2.70 | 4.17 | 5.88 | 6.50 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Brazil | Serie B | 01:30 | Vila Nova | Ponte Preta | 100.00 | 4.00 | 5.56 | 6.00 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Morocco | Botola Pro | 18:00 | Difaâ El Jadida | Youssoufia Berrechid | 4.00 | 2.50 | 5.56 | 4.33 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Argentina | Torneo Federal A | 01:00 | Sportivo Belgrano | Def. de Pronunciamiento | 25.00 | 3.33 | 3.45 | 5.00 |
1 | 28/06/2022 | China PR | Super League | 12:30 | Guangzhou R&F | Dalian Yifang | 2.22 | 2.22 | 1.79 | 3.75 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Kazakhstan | Premier League | 15:00 | Ordabasy | Aksu | 4.17 | 2.27 | 3.03 | 3.80 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | South America | Copa Libertadores | 01:30 | Athletico PR | Libertad | 5.00 | 2.94 | 2.78 | 4.33 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Malawi | Super League | 13:30 | Silver Strikers | TN Stars | 4.76 | 2.44 | 2.63 | 3.76 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Georgia | Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga | 18:00 | Dinamo Batumi | Dinamo Tbilisi | 1.54 | 2.08 | 4.55 | 3.20 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Egypt | Premier League | 20:30 | Smouha | Al Ahly | 2.13 | 1.64 | 2.78 | 2.75 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Brazil | Serie B | 23:00 | Brusque | Bahia | 100.00 | 5.56 | 4.55 | 6.50 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Norway | NM Cup | 17:00 | Gjøvik-Lyn | Stabæk | 6.25 | 1.30 | 1.89 | 2.10 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Iceland | 2. Deild | 20:15 | Reynir | Víkingur Ólafsvík | 20.00 | 1.19 | 1.92 | 1.98 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Norway | NM Cup | 17:00 | Moss | Start | 16.67 | 1.72 | 2.38 | 2.50 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Canada | Premier League | 00:00 | Forge | Valour | 1.52 | 2.27 | 3.03 | 3.00 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | China PR | League One | 09:00 | Nantong Zhiyun | Qingdao Youth Island | 2.63 | 1.72 | 2.56 | 2.38 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Egypt | Premier League | 18:00 | Al Mokawloon | National Bank of Egypt | 5.00 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 4.50 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Morocco | Botola Pro | 20:30 | RSB Berkane | Chabab Mohammédia | 6.67 | 4.35 | 5.26 | 5.00 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Norway | NM Cup | 17:00 | Kjelsås | Skeid | 0.00 | 2.38 | 2.13 | 3.00 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Brazil | Paulista U20 | 19:00 | Osasco Audax U20 | Sport Club Brasil U20 | 2.78 | 1.33 | 1.39 | 1.81 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Norway | NM Cup | 17:00 | Sotra | Haugesund | 16.67 | 1.45 | 2.78 | 1.91 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Iceland | 2. Deild | 20:15 | Fjardabyggd / Leiknir | Magni | 1.22 | 1.49 | 1.43 | 1.95 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Iraq | Iraqi League | 15:00 | Al-Qasim | Naft Al-Wasat | 6.25 | 4.55 | 5.00 | 4.94 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Iceland | 2. Deild | 20:15 | Haukar | Thróttur Reykjavík | 33.33 | 1.75 | 1.96 | 2.10 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Egypt | Premier League | 20:30 | Zamalek | Ceramica Cleopatra | 5.26 | 3.13 | 3.70 | 3.40 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Iceland | 2. Deild | 19:00 | Njardvík | KF | 1.33 | 1.41 | 2.00 | 1.68 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Sweden | Superettan | 18:00 | Jönköpings Södra | Örgryte | 1.27 | 2.38 | 3.03 | 2.63 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Australia | Queensland Premier League | 11:00 | Redlands United | Sunshine Coast | 2.00 | 1.64 | 1.35 | 1.85 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Bangladesh | Premier League | 11:00 | Saif | Swadhinata KS | 2.04 | 1.82 | 2.17 | 1.95 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | USA | USL Championship | 00:00 | Hartford Athletic | Colorado Springs | 1.92 | 2.08 | 1.72 | 2.20 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Europe | Euro U19 | 16:00 | England U19 | Italy U19 | 2.44 | 2.63 | 2.56 | 2.75 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Estonia | Meistriliiga | 16:00 | Flora | Vaprus | 1.41 | 1.18 | 2.22 | 1.29 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | World | Friendly International Women | 21:00 | Portugal W | Australia W | 1.08 | 2.70 | 2.50 | 2.80 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Finland | Kakkonen | 17:00 | I-Kissat | GrIFK | 1.18 | 1.64 | 1.67 | 1.73 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Bangladesh | Premier League | 11:00 | Abahani Chittagong | Abahani | 1.56 | 2.00 | 4.00 | 2.00 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Estonia | Meistriliiga | 18:00 | Tallinna Kalev | Nõmme Kalju | 3.03 | 2.27 | 2.56 | 2.27 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | USA | USL Championship | 00:30 | Charleston Battery | Atlanta United II | 2.33 | 2.13 | 2.22 | 2.10 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Georgia | Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga | 15:00 | Gagra | Saburtalo | 9.09 | 4.00 | 3.57 | 3.95 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Egypt | Premier League | 18:00 | Ghazl El Mehalla | Ismaily | 5.88 | 5.56 | 8.33 | 5.50 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Faroe Islands | Meistaradeildin | 18:30 | KÍ | NSÍ | 1.61 | 1.82 | 2.50 | 1.76 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Faroe Islands | 1. Deild | 19:45 | NSÍ II | Undrid | 1.69 | 1.79 | 1.85 | 1.69 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Norway | NM Cup | 17:00 | Byåsen | Sandefjord | 1.64 | 2.04 | 2.63 | 1.90 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | South America | Copa Libertadores | 23:15 | Emelec | Atlético Mineiro | 1.96 | 4.17 | 4.76 | 4.00 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | USA | US Open Cup | 00:00 | Orlando City | Nashville SC | 8.33 | 4.17 | 6.25 | 4.00 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara | 14:00 | Young Africans | Mtibwa Sugar | 3.57 | 4.00 | 6.25 | 3.78 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Singapore | S. League | 12:45 | Home United | Young Lions | 1.92 | 1.85 | 2.08 | 1.62 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Brazil | Serie B | 23:00 | Grêmio | Londrina | 4.55 | 4.00 | 3.13 | 3.75 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Estonia | Meistriliiga | 15:30 | Tammeka | Trans | 3.45 | 2.86 | 3.33 | 2.55 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Iceland | 1. Deild Women | 19:30 | Fjölnir | Víkingur Reykjavík | 2.50 | 2.17 | 2.00 | 1.85 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Mongolia | Premier League | 09:00 | SP Falcons | Ulaanbaatar City | 2.63 | 2.13 | 2.38 | 1.80 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | USA | USL League Two | 22:00 | New Jersey Copa | Hudson Valley Hammers | 1.61 | 2.33 | 2.17 | 1.93 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Faroe Islands | 1. Deild | 19:30 | B71 | KÍ II | 4.55 | 2.33 | 2.00 | 1.92 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Bangladesh | Premier League | 11:00 | Baridhara | Rahmatgonj MFS | 16.67 | 3.03 | 2.94 | 2.60 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | USA | USL League Two | 01:00 | Houston FC | Brazos Valley | 4.00 | 2.00 | 1.79 | 1.54 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Uzbekistan | Professional Football League | 16:00 | Kokand-1912 | Dinamo Samarqand | 10.00 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.20 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | World | Friendly International Women | 03:00 | United States W | Colombia W | 1.02 | 1.79 | 1.72 | 1.29 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Sweden | Division 2: Sodra Svealand | 19:00 | Huddinge | IFK Eskilstuna | 5.00 | 2.44 | 2.13 | 1.88 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Kazakhstan | First Division | 13:00 | Yassy Turkistan | Zhetysu | 4.17 | 3.57 | 3.85 | 2.98 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Malaysia | Super League | 14:00 | Selangor | Sabah | 2.38 | 2.86 | 3.13 | 2.26 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Finland | Kakkonen | 16:30 | VJS | HJS Akatemia | 2.94 | 2.70 | 2.08 | 2.10 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Finland | Kakkonen | 17:00 | KaaPo | Tampere United | 2.13 | 2.44 | 3.03 | 1.83 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Iceland | 2. Deild | 19:30 | Völsungur | ÍR | 1.47 | 2.63 | 2.22 | 2.02 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Uzbekistan | Professional Football League | 16:00 | Pakhtakor | Bunyodkor | 11.11 | 3.57 | 2.00 | 2.90 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Norway | NM Cup | 17:00 | Eidsvold | Molde | 1.39 | 2.44 | 2.00 | 1.67 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Norway | 3. Division - Group 1 | 18:00 | Grorud II | Skeid II | 2.27 | 2.78 | 2.78 | 2.00 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Estonia | Meistriliiga | 17:30 | Legion | Paide | 3.85 | 2.78 | 2.70 | 1.99 |
1 | 29/06/2022 | Japan | J-League | 11:00 | Gamba Osaka | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2.78 | 4.35 | 5.00 | 3.50 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Egypt | Premier League | 18:00 | Pyramids FC | ENPPI | 5.00 | 3.85 | 5.00 | 3.00 |
1 | 29/06/2022 | USA | Major League Soccer | 00:30 | Toronto | Columbus Crew | 3.45 | 3.85 | 4.55 | 3.00 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | USA | USL Championship | 02:50 | San Antonio | Tulsa Roughnecks | 2.70 | 2.94 | 2.44 | 2.00 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Mongolia | Premier League | 12:00 | Deren | Khangarid | 2.38 | 2.50 | 2.44 | 1.50 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Finland | Kakkonen | 16:30 | Honka Akatemia | MuSa | 1.19 | 3.03 | 2.70 | 2.00 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | USA | USL League Two | 00:00 | Cedar Stars Rush | Westchester Flames | 33.33 | 3.03 | 2.70 | 2.00 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Estonia | Meistriliiga | 16:00 | Kuressaare | Levadia | 6.25 | 3.33 | 2.50 | 2.28 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Australia | Northern Nsw | 10:00 | Lake Macquarie | Weston Bears | 1.41 | 2.94 | 2.22 | 1.86 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Finland | Kakkonen | 16:30 | EPS | SalPa | 25.00 | 4.17 | 3.57 | 3.00 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | USA | USL League Two | 01:00 | St. Croix | WSA Winnipeg | 6.67 | 3.70 | 3.45 | 2.40 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Brazil | Serie B | 23:00 | Náutico | Criciúma | 3.70 | 5.88 | 5.56 | 4.50 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Australia | Northern Nsw | 10:30 | Valentine | Hamilton Olympic | 5.26 | 3.33 | 2.86 | 1.88 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Sweden | Svenska Cupen | 18:30 | Lindome | GAIS | 2.86 | 3.57 | 4.35 | 2.10 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Sweden | Superettan | 18:00 | Norrby | Östersunds FK | 50.00 | 5.26 | 3.33 | 3.75 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Brazil | Paulista U20 | 19:00 | Botafogo SP U20 | Francana U20 | 4.35 | 3.33 | 3.23 | 1.78 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Indonesia | President Cup | 10:00 | Borneo | Cilegon United | 0.00 | 5.26 | 4.55 | 3.70 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Argentina | Copa Argentina | 22:05 | Gimnasia La Plata | Flandria | 0.00 | 5.00 | 9.09 | 3.40 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | World | Friendly International Women | 16:00 | Turkey W | Azerbaijan W | 11.11 | 4.35 | 3.85 | 2.70 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Malaysia | Super League | 14:00 | Johor Darul Ta'zim | MISC | 1.72 | 3.70 | 3.13 | 2.01 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Brazil | Serie B | 01:30 | Guarani | Ituano | 25.00 | 6.25 | 5.26 | 4.50 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Korea Republic | Korean Cup | 11:00 | Ulsan | Bucheon 1995 | 10.00 | 4.76 | 5.88 | 3.00 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Finland | Finland Cup | 16:30 | Lahti | JäPS | 1.35 | 3.70 | 3.23 | 1.80 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | USA | USL League Two | 00:30 | Tormenta II | Southern Soccer Academy | 16.67 | 4.35 | 3.70 | 2.29 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Morocco | Botola Pro | 18:00 | Raja Casablanca | FAR Rabat | 8.33 | 5.56 | 6.25 | 3.40 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara | 14:00 | Azam | Biashara United | 10.00 | 6.25 | 7.14 | 4.05 |
1 | 29/06/2022 | USA | Major League Soccer | 00:30 | Cincinnati | New York City | 6.67 | 4.76 | 3.70 | 2.50 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Australia | Northern Nsw | 10:00 | Maitland | Lambton Jaffas | 3.23 | 4.35 | 3.45 | 2.00 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Kazakhstan | First Division | 14:00 | Kaisar | Zhenys | 3.70 | 4.76 | 5.56 | 2.30 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Norway | NM Cup | 19:15 | Vålerenga | Bodø / Glimt | 5.00 | 4.76 | 3.45 | 2.25 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara | 14:00 | Coastal Union | Geita Gold | 9.09 | 8.33 | 14.29 | 5.75 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Morocco | Botola Pro | 20:30 | Khouribga | Olympic Safi | 8.33 | 7.69 | 5.26 | 5.00 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | USA | USL League Two | 00:00 | South Bend Lions | Toledo Villa | 4.00 | 4.76 | 4.35 | 2.00 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Korea Republic | Korean Cup | 11:00 | Jeonbuk Motors | Suwon Bluewings | 33.33 | 7.14 | 10.00 | 3.75 |
1 | 29/06/2022 | China PR | Super League | 12:30 | Changchun Yatai | Hangzhou | 3.03 | 7.14 | 4.17 | 3.75 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Georgia | Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga | 14:30 | Torpedo Kutaisi | Dila | 20.00 | 7.14 | 4.76 | 3.00 |
1 | 28/06/2022 | China PR | Super League | 11:30 | Shandong Luneng | Henan Jianye | 0.00 | 7.69 | 5.00 | 3.25 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara | 14:00 | Mbeya Kwanza | Simba | 12.50 | 9.09 | 6.67 | 4.45 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | South America | Copa Libertadores | 23:15 | Talleres Córdoba | Colón | 8.33 | 9.09 | 4.76 | 4.33 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Iceland | Iceland Cup | 20:45 | Selfoss | Víkingur Reykjavík | 3.23 | 6.67 | 4.76 | 1.83 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Bangladesh | Premier League | 11:00 | Muktijoddha SKC | Bangladesh Police | 6.25 | 8.33 | 7.14 | 3.25 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | South America | Copa Sudamericana | 01:30 | Colo-Colo | Internacional | 3.85 | 9.09 | 6.25 | 4.00 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara | 14:00 | Ruvu Shooting | Tanzania Prisons | 20.00 | 11.11 | 11.11 | 6.00 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Morocco | Botola Pro | 18:00 | FUS Rabat | Rapide Oued Zem | 6.25 | 9.09 | 9.09 | 3.75 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Brazil | Serie B | 01:30 | Cruzeiro | Sport Recife | 100.00 | 11.11 | 6.67 | 5.00 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Sweden | Superettan | 18:00 | Halmstad | Trelleborg | 2.38 | 9.09 | 4.76 | 2.75 |
1 | 29/06/2022 | China PR | Super League | 08:30 | Shanghai SIPG | Shanghai Shenhua | 50.00 | 12.50 | 4.35 | 5.00 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | Ethiopia | Premier League | 14:00 | Adama Kenema | Dire Dawa Kenema | 16.67 | 14.29 | 9.09 | 5.25 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Malaysia | Super League | 14:00 | Terengganu | Negeri Sembilan | 0.00 | 12.50 | 3.70 | 2.75 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | USA | USL League Two | 01:30 | Tennessee | Peachtree City | 9.09 | 12.50 | 7.69 | 2.35 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Finland | Finland Cup | 17:00 | PK-35 | HIFK | 0.00 | 14.29 | 4.17 | 3.40 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | USA | USL League Two | 00:00 | Nona | FC Florida II | 6.25 | 14.29 | 12.50 | 2.80 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Morocco | Botola Pro | 18:00 | Riadi Salmi | Hassania Agadir | 12.50 | 16.67 | 14.29 | 5.00 |
1 | 29/06/2022 | China PR | Super League | 10:30 | Shenzhen | Tianjin Teda | 33.33 | 16.67 | 5.00 | 4.00 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | South America | Copa Libertadores | 01:30 | Corinthians | Boca Juniors | 33.33 | 20.00 | 7.14 | 7.00 |
0 | 28/06/2022 | World | Friendly International Women | 17:30 | Sweden W | Brazil W | 5.56 | 16.67 | 16.67 | 2.72 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | South America | Copa Libertadores | 23:15 | Cerro Porteño | Palmeiras | 2.44 | 20.00 | 9.09 | 5.00 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara | 14:00 | Kagera Sugar | Polisi Tanzania | 33.33 | 25.00 | 10.00 | 8.75 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | China PR | League One | 09:00 | Zibo Sunday | Guangxi Baoyun | 2.44 | 20.00 | 11.11 | 3.25 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Finland | Finland Cup | 16:00 | Inter Turku | HJK | 0.00 | 25.00 | 10.00 | 3.50 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara | 14:00 | Dodoma Jiji | KMC | 10.00 | 25.00 | 10.00 | 3.34 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Morocco | Botola Pro | 18:00 | Ittihad Tanger | Maghreb Fès | 20.00 | 33.33 | 20.00 | 5.50 |
0 | 29/06/2022 | Iraq | Iraqi League | 15:00 | Al Sinaah | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 33.33 | 33.33 | 25.00 | 5.10 |