Poisson Distribution Over 3.5 Goals Odds For Football Betting & Trading
Welcome to the Poisson Distribution Over 3.5 Goals Odds for football betting & trading. Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events occur with a known constant mean rate and independently of the time since the last event. Poisson distribution has been successfully used in models to predict football scores probabilities and pricing up matches. Learn more about Poisson here.
We provide you with 3 Poisson Distribution Models for Football Betting & Trading
Usually, Poisson Distribution models are calculated on the current season’s stats only. We give you more insight by preparing 3 separate models:
- Short Term Model*– calculated on stats from current season’s only
- Medium Term Model – based on stats from the last 20 matches.
- Long Term Model – covering stats from the last 50 matches.
All stats are taken from single competitions only, e.g. for Premier League fixtures, we use only matches from the Premier League. Feel free to browse the Poisson stats below. The upcoming matches are available for FTT & PRO members only.
* The short term model needs at least 10 matches of the new season for more reliable odds predictions. At the beginning of the seasons, the CS fields may be empty.
How to use Poisson Distribution odds for football betting & trading?
We calculate all the odds for you, so you don’t need to do any calculations. The 3 Poisson models will give you 3 separate prices for a given outcome.
Let’s take, for example, the over 2.5 goals market and the following figures:
- CS – 1.6
- L20 – 1.7
- L50 – 1.55
Current Over 2.5 goals odds are 1.5.
Looking at the 3 odds figures above, we can quickly state that the 1.5 odds seem to be a poor value for this match as the calculated/fair odds for the 3 given models are significantly higher.
It’s worth noting that the current season’s odds will be more accurate after more matches are played. Therefore, you may want to consider them once there are 10 league game weeks played or so.
Ideally, you would like to find matches with all 3 odds lower than the current available price. However, once you find such matches, you may wish to analyse them in more detail to determine whether your shortlisted picks represent value or try learning about other important reasons for the odds to be suspiciously higher than they should be.
Poisson Distribution Over 3.5 Goals Odds
You are browsing past 2 days matches stats. Current (Today's and 2 days in advance) statistics are available for FTT & PRO members only!
Learn more about our subscription options and subscribe now!M | Date | Country | Competition | KO | Home | Away | CS | L20 | L50 | odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M | Date | Country | Competition | KO | Home | Away | CS | L20 | L50 | odds |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Argentina | Primera B Metropolitana | 19:30 | Comunicaciones | Excursionistas | 3.33 | 2.78 | 5.00 | 5.50 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Paraguay | Division 1 | 23:30 | Olimpia | Libertad | 3.70 | 2.94 | 3.23 | 5.00 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Latvia | Virsliga | 18:00 | Super Nova | FS Jelgava | 25.00 | 1.59 | 2.08 | 3.50 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Italy | Serie C Play-offs | 19:00 | Audace Cerignola | Atalanta II | 1.92 | 1.96 | 2.70 | 3.40 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | France | Ligue 1 Play-offs | 19:00 | Metz | Reims | 5.56 | 2.56 | 3.85 | 3.75 |
0 | 22/05/2025 | Ecuador | Primera B | 01:00 | Imbabura | Independiente Juniors | 100.00 | 3.45 | 3.85 | 4.50 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Argentina | Reserve League | 23:00 | River Plate Res. | Boca Juniors Res. | 2.13 | 4.55 | 5.88 | 5.50 |
1 | 21/05/2025 | Europe | Europa League | 20:00 | Tottenham Hotspur | Manchester United | 3.23 | 2.63 | 2.33 | 3.50 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Venezuela | Primera Division | 23:00 | Deportivo La Guaira | UCV | 5.26 | 2.78 | 5.88 | 3.65 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Sweden | Superettan | 18:00 | Örgryte | Sandviken | 1.43 | 1.69 | 1.75 | 2.50 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Argentina | Reserve League | 19:00 | Barracas Central Res. | Unión Santa Fe Res. | 2.86 | 3.70 | 4.55 | 4.50 |
0 | 22/05/2025 | Saudi Arabia | Pro League | 17:05 | Al Akhdoud | Al Raed | 2.50 | 2.63 | 3.03 | 3.40 |
1 | 22/05/2025 | Sweden | Allsvenskan | 18:00 | Malmö FF | AIK | 5.88 | 3.03 | 3.03 | 3.75 |
0 | 22/05/2025 | Sweden | Superettan | 18:00 | Kalmar | Umeå | 3.45 | 1.79 | 3.85 | 2.50 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Latvia | Virsliga | 16:00 | Grobiņa | Tukums | 3.45 | 2.00 | 1.32 | 2.63 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Northern Ireland | Championship Women | 19:30 | St. James' Swifts W | Ballymena Allstars W | 1.61 | 1.18 | 1.14 | 1.79 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | USA | US Open Cup | 00:30 | Minnesota United | St. Louis City | 8.33 | 2.08 | 2.63 | 2.63 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Serbia | Serbian Cup | 17:00 | Vojvodina | Crvena Zvezda | 1.00 | 1.85 | 2.78 | 2.38 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | England | Professional Development League | 19:00 | AFC Bournemouth U21 | Brentford U21 | 1.28 | 1.32 | 1.37 | 1.81 |
0 | 22/05/2025 | Costa Rica | Primera Division | 03:00 | Alajuelense | Deportivo Saprissa | 4.00 | 4.55 | 4.35 | 5.00 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Brazil | Brasileiro U20 | 19:00 | Atletico-PR U20 | Atletico Mineiro U20 | 2.33 | 2.08 | 1.92 | 2.40 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Norway | NM Cup | 18:00 | Molde | Kristiansund | 2.50 | 1.72 | 1.56 | 2.00 |
1 | 21/05/2025 | Netherlands | Eredivisie Playoffs | 17:45 | FC Dordrecht | Willem II | 2.17 | 3.23 | 4.17 | 3.50 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Czech Republic | 3. Liga CFL | 16:30 | Uherský Brod | Zlín II | 3.13 | 1.79 | 3.45 | 2.00 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Saudi Arabia | Pro League | 19:00 | Al-Wehda | Al Hilal | 1.32 | 1.52 | 1.69 | 1.73 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Finland | Veikkausliiga | 16:00 | Ilves | KuPS | 1.85 | 2.44 | 3.33 | 2.63 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Sweden | Superettan | 18:00 | Utsikten | Örebro | 1.64 | 2.56 | 3.13 | 2.75 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Singapore | Singapore Cup | 12:45 | DPMM FC | Lion City Sailors FC | 1.72 | 1.45 | 1.41 | 1.62 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Paraguay | Division Intermedia | 19:00 | Tacuary | Sportivo Carapeguá | 12.50 | 4.35 | 5.00 | 4.50 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Brazil | Brasileiro U20 | 19:00 | Internacional U20 | Botafogo U20 | 3.33 | 2.86 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | United Arab Emirates | Arabian Gulf Reserve League | 15:10 | Al Bataeh U23 | Al Orooba U23 | 1.69 | 1.69 | 1.64 | 1.82 |
0 | 22/05/2025 | Sweden | Division 2: Norrland | 18:30 | IFK Luleå | 2.22 | 2.27 | 2.13 | 2.38 | |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Poland | 3. Liga - Group 1 | 16:00 | Swit | Pelikan Łowicz | 2.86 | 2.78 | 3.13 | 2.88 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | USA | US Open Cup | 03:30 | SJ Earthquakes | Portland Timbers | 1.79 | 1.92 | 2.33 | 2.00 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Czech Republic | 3. Liga CFL | 16:30 | Strani | Start Brno | 2.33 | 2.04 | 2.50 | 2.05 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Georgia | Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga | 16:00 | Gagra | Gareji | 11.11 | 4.00 | 2.78 | 4.00 |
0 | 22/05/2025 | Sweden | Superettan | 18:00 | Varberg BoIS | Landskrona | 3.33 | 3.45 | 3.57 | 3.40 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Finland | Ykkonen | 16:30 | PK-35 | JäPS | 1.82 | 2.56 | 2.44 | 2.50 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Czech Republic | 3. Liga CFL | 16:00 | Jablonec II | Ústí nad Labem | 2.08 | 2.17 | 2.63 | 2.10 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Czech Republic | 3. Liga CFL | 17:00 | Benatky nad Jizerou | Teplice II | 3.03 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.40 |
0 | 22/05/2025 | Denmark | First Division | 18:00 | Hillerød | Vendsyssel | 2.08 | 2.22 | 3.45 | 2.10 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Paraguay | Division Intermedia | 19:00 | Pastoreo | Sol de América | 6.25 | 4.17 | 6.25 | 4.00 |
1 | 22/05/2025 | Netherlands | Eredivisie | 17:45 | AZ | SC Heerenveen | 2.63 | 2.44 | 2.27 | 2.25 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Brazil | Brasileiro U20 | 19:00 | Santos U20 | Vasco U20 | 1.39 | 2.50 | 2.00 | 2.25 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Brazil | Brasileiro U20 | 19:00 | América Mineiro U20 | Cuiabá U20 | 12.50 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.60 |
0 | 22/05/2025 | Brazil | Copa do Brasil | 01:30 | Corinthians | Novorizontino | 4.00 | 5.26 | 5.26 | 5.00 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Brazil | Brasileiro U20 | 19:00 | Bragantino U20 | Sao Paulo U20 | 2.22 | 3.03 | 2.13 | 2.75 |
0 | 22/05/2025 | Finland | Kakkonen | 16:30 | JS Hercules | TP-47 | 1.89 | 1.72 | 1.89 | 1.44 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Bahrain | Premier League | 17:00 | Al Shabbab | Al Ahli | 6.25 | 3.70 | 2.63 | 3.40 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Finland | Ykkonen | 16:30 | TPS | Lahti | 4.17 | 2.94 | 2.70 | 2.63 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Lithuania | 1. Lyga | 16:00 | TransINVEST Vilnius | Kauno Žalgiris II | 1.85 | 2.08 | 2.27 | 1.75 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Gambia | GFA League | 17:00 | BST Galaxy | 4.55 | 6.67 | 7.69 | 6.34 | |
0 | 22/05/2025 | Denmark | First Division | 18:00 | B 93 | Roskilde | 3.03 | 2.33 | 2.78 | 2.00 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Argentina | Reserve League | 19:00 | Belgrano Córdoba Res. | Argentinos Juniors Res. | 14.29 | 4.35 | 5.56 | 4.00 |
0 | 22/05/2025 | Algeria | Ligue 1 | 18:00 | CS Constantine | MC Oran | 4.00 | 4.35 | 6.25 | 4.00 |
0 | 22/05/2025 | Denmark | First Division | 18:00 | Hobro | HB Køge | 4.00 | 3.13 | 3.85 | 2.75 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Argentina | Reserve League | 19:00 | Estudiantes La Plata Res | Tigre Res. | 1.45 | 3.70 | 5.26 | 3.30 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Faroe Islands | Faroe Islands Cup | 18:30 | B68 | Víkingur | 25.00 | 3.23 | 2.63 | 2.75 |
1 | 21/05/2025 | Japan | J-League | 11:00 | Yokohama F. Marinos | Vissel Kobe | 9.09 | 3.13 | 4.55 | 2.63 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Czech Republic | 3. Liga CFL | 16:30 | Blansko | Zbrojovka Brno II | 3.33 | 2.50 | 2.08 | 2.00 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Finland | Ykkonen | 16:30 | JIPPO | Klubi-04 | 2.04 | 3.13 | 2.63 | 2.63 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Argentina | Reserve League | 19:00 | Godoy Cruz Res. | Atlético Tucumán Res. | 4.55 | 5.00 | 2.78 | 4.50 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | New Zealand | Regional Leagues | 08:30 | Auckland City | Manurewa | 7.69 | 2.44 | 1.92 | 1.90 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Brazil | Serie D | 00:00 | Trem | Independencia | 1.54 | 3.85 | 2.78 | 3.30 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Norway | NM Cup | 18:00 | Lillestrøm | Fredrikstad | 20.00 | 4.35 | 3.57 | 3.75 |
1 | 22/05/2025 | Netherlands | Eredivisie | 20:00 | FC Twente | NEC Nijmegen | 4.35 | 3.23 | 3.85 | 2.63 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | First League: FBiH | 16:30 | Bratstvo Gracanica | Travnik | 3.85 | 3.70 | 2.63 | 3.00 |
0 | 22/05/2025 | United Arab Emirates | Uae League | 16:40 | Khorfakkan Club | Al Sharjah | 5.26 | 3.33 | 3.13 | 2.63 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Saudi Arabia | Pro League | 17:25 | Al Kholood | Al Feiha | 4.17 | 4.00 | 4.76 | 3.25 |
1 | 21/05/2025 | Italy | Serie B | 19:30 | Juve Stabia | Cremonese | 4.35 | 4.76 | 4.35 | 4.00 |
0 | 22/05/2025 | Sweden | Superettan | 18:00 | Helsingborg | Oddevold | 2.33 | 4.35 | 5.26 | 3.50 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Czech Republic | 3. Liga CFL | 17:00 | Hradec Kralove II | Sokol Zápy | 4.35 | 3.45 | 4.76 | 2.55 |
0 | 22/05/2025 | Saudi Arabia | Pro League | 17:15 | Damac | Al Fateh | 2.86 | 3.13 | 2.94 | 2.20 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Finland | Ykkonen | 16:30 | SJK Akatemia | EIF | 4.55 | 2.86 | 2.70 | 1.91 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Bahrain | Premier League | 17:00 | Muharraq | East Riffa | 2.70 | 3.57 | 6.67 | 2.60 |
0 | 22/05/2025 | Saudi Arabia | Pro League | 19:00 | Al Ahli | Al Ettifaq | 2.86 | 2.86 | 6.25 | 1.83 |
0 | 22/05/2025 | Venezuela | Primera Division | 01:30 | Academia Anzoátegui | Portuguesa | 8.33 | 8.33 | 11.11 | 7.27 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Brazil | Brasileiro U20 | 19:00 | Atlético GO U20 | Bahia U20 | 3.85 | 3.70 | 2.50 | 2.60 |
1 | 22/05/2025 | Switzerland | Super League | 19:30 | Yverdon Sport | Zürich | 4.35 | 3.45 | 4.00 | 2.20 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Japan | Ybc Levain Cup | 11:00 | Shonan Bellmare | FC Tokyo | 0.00 | 4.55 | 4.00 | 3.25 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Czech Republic | 3. Liga CFL | 16:30 | Hanácká | Slovan Rosice | 2.33 | 3.13 | 4.00 | 1.80 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Argentina | Primera C | 19:30 | Leandro Nicéforo Alem | Puerto Nuevo | 4.35 | 5.88 | 7.69 | 4.50 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Japan | Ybc Levain Cup | 11:00 | Júbilo Iwata | Gamba Osaka | 2.13 | 4.17 | 3.85 | 2.75 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Saudi Arabia | Pro League | 17:10 | Al Nassr | Al Khaleej | 2.44 | 2.86 | 2.78 | 1.44 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Sweden | Svenska Cupen Women | 18:00 | Hammarby W | Norrköping W | 9.09 | 3.85 | 5.26 | 2.42 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Canada | Championship | 01:30 | Valour | Vancouver Whitecaps | 0.00 | 4.76 | 5.26 | 3.30 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Finland | Ykkonen | 16:30 | KäPa | SalPa | 0.00 | 3.57 | 2.56 | 2.10 |
1 | 21/05/2025 | Italy | Serie B | 19:30 | Catanzaro | Spezia | 5.88 | 5.26 | 2.86 | 3.75 |
1 | 22/05/2025 | Switzerland | Super League | 19:30 | Winterthur | Sion | 5.26 | 4.17 | 4.17 | 2.63 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Argentina | Reserve League | 19:30 | Independiente Res. | 3.45 | 5.56 | 4.35 | 4.00 | |
1 | 22/05/2025 | Sweden | Allsvenskan | 18:00 | Hammarby | Mjällby | 2.78 | 4.35 | 4.17 | 2.75 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Czech Republic | 3. Liga CFL | 17:00 | Sokol Živanice | Chlumec nad Cidlinou | 10.00 | 4.17 | 2.86 | 2.55 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Poland | 3. Liga - Group 1 | 18:26 | Broń Radom | Bełchatów | 4.76 | 4.35 | 3.23 | 2.60 |
0 | 22/05/2025 | Armenia | Premier League | 16:00 | BKMA | Alashkert | 6.67 | 5.00 | 2.33 | 2.95 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Ecuador | Primera B | 21:30 | Leones del Norte | 5.26 | 5.88 | 5.00 | 3.80 | |
0 | 22/05/2025 | Brazil | Copa do Brasil | 01:30 | Flamengo | Botafogo PB | 4.17 | 4.00 | 6.67 | 1.91 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Brazil | Serie D | 20:00 | Tocantinópolis | Imperatriz | 33.33 | 6.67 | 3.70 | 4.50 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Czech Republic | 3. Liga CFL | 16:30 | Třinec | Slovácko II | 7.14 | 4.00 | 3.85 | 1.73 |
1 | 22/05/2025 | Switzerland | Super League | 19:30 | Grasshopper | St. Gallen | 4.76 | 4.55 | 4.55 | 2.20 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Czech Republic | 3. Liga CFL | 16:30 | Slovan Liberec II | Banik Sous | 5.56 | 4.76 | 3.03 | 2.40 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | China PR | FA Cup | 12:30 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | Henan Songshan Longmen | 4.17 | 5.56 | 4.55 | 3.10 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Czech Republic | 3. Liga CFL | 17:00 | Pardubice II | Ústí nad Orlicí | 5.26 | 5.56 | 4.35 | 3.00 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | China PR | FA Cup | 12:30 | Shijiazhuang Kungfu | Beijing Guoan | 1.72 | 5.26 | 5.56 | 2.57 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Italy | Serie C Play-offs | 19:00 | Pescara | Vis Pesaro | 1.32 | 6.25 | 3.45 | 3.50 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Sweden | Superettan | 18:00 | Västerås SK | Östersunds FK | 7.69 | 5.88 | 4.55 | 3.00 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Czech Republic | 3. Liga CFL | 17:00 | Kolín | Sokol Brozany | 5.00 | 5.26 | 3.85 | 2.25 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Brazil | Brasileiro U20 | 19:00 | Fortaleza U20 | Palmeiras U20 | 14.29 | 6.25 | 3.70 | 2.88 |
1 | 21/05/2025 | Japan | J-League | 11:00 | Kawasaki Frontale | Urawa Reds | 7.14 | 7.14 | 3.85 | 3.50 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Japan | Ybc Levain Cup | 11:00 | Renofa Yamaguchi | Kashiwa Reysol | 3.13 | 7.69 | 5.56 | 4.00 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Paraguay | Division 1 | 23:30 | Atlético Tembetary | Guaraní | 5.56 | 7.69 | 5.88 | 4.00 |
0 | 22/05/2025 | USA | US Open Cup | 02:00 | Austin | Houston Dynamo | 5.56 | 7.69 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | China PR | FA Cup | 08:30 | Wuxi Wugou | Shanghai Shenhua | 5.26 | 5.56 | 10.00 | 1.67 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Sweden | Superettan | 18:00 | Falkenberg | Trelleborg | 25.00 | 7.14 | 3.13 | 3.25 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Japan | Ybc Levain Cup | 11:00 | Kataller Toyama | Avispa Fukuoka | 1.47 | 8.33 | 5.56 | 4.33 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Brazil | Brasileiro U20 | 19:00 | Flamengo RJ U20 | Juventude U20 | 7.14 | 6.67 | 4.55 | 2.55 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Paraguay | Division 1 | 23:30 | Sportivo Ameliano | Cerro Porteño | 5.26 | 9.09 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Morocco | Coupe Du Trone | 20:00 | FAR Rabat | CR Khemis Zemamra | 6.67 | 9.09 | 5.88 | 3.75 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Poland | 3. Liga - Group 1 | 15:00 | Warta Sieradz | Wikielec | 8.33 | 9.09 | 6.25 | 3.20 |
0 | 22/05/2025 | Bulgaria | Bulgarian Cup | 17:00 | Ludogorets | CSKA Sofia | 5.88 | 10.00 | 9.09 | 3.75 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Macedonia FYR | Macedonian Cup | 19:00 | Vardar | Struga | 6.25 | 11.11 | 9.09 | 4.80 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | England | National League | 19:45 | Forest Green Rovers | Southend United | 8.33 | 9.09 | 7.14 | 2.75 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Argentina | Primera C | 19:30 | Deportivo Muñiz | Deportivo Español | 33.33 | 11.11 | 9.09 | 4.33 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Brazil | Copa do Brasil | 23:30 | Aparecidense | Fluminense | 0.00 | 11.11 | 8.33 | 4.00 |
0 | 22/05/2025 | Sweden | Superettan | 18:00 | GIF Sundsvall | Brage | 7.69 | 11.11 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Paraguay | Division 1 | 13:30 | General Caballero JLM | 2 de Mayo | 10.00 | 14.29 | 7.69 | 5.00 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Brazil | Serie D | 23:00 | Sampaio Corrêa | Maranhão | 0.00 | 16.67 | 5.26 | 4.50 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Senegal | Ligue 1 | 18:00 | Jaraaf | Gorée | 20.00 | 33.33 | 20.00 | 7.40 |
0 | 21/05/2025 | Argentina | Primera C | 19:30 | Estrella del Sur | Deportivo Paraguayo | 33.33 | 100.00 | 50.00 | 5.00 |