Poisson Distribution Football Correct Score Predictions

Welcome to the Poisson Distribution Football Correct Score Predictions for betting & trading. Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events occur with a known constant mean rate and independently of the time since the last event. Poisson distribution has been successfully used in models to predict football scores probabilities and pricing up matches. Learn more about Poisson here.

By using goals averages for leagues and both involved teams, we calculate teams’ Defence Strength & Attack Strength values.
The next step is to use the Poisson Distribution Formula to find probabilities of all scores from 0-0 to 5-5 to find the most likely score-lines.
Lastly, we publish TOP 3 most likely correct score predictions from each model. See the tables below.

We provide you with 3 Poisson Distribution Models for Football Betting & Trading

Usually, Poisson Distribution models are calculated on the current season’s stats only. We give you more insight by preparing 3 separate models:

  1. Short Term Model*– calculated on stats from current season’s only
  2. Medium Term Model – based on stats from the last 20 matches.
  3. Long Term Model – covering stats from the last 50 matches.

All stats are taken from single competitions only, e.g. for Premier League fixtures, we use only matches from the Premier League. Feel free to browse the Poisson stats below. The upcoming matches are available for FTT & PRO members only.

* The short term model needs at least 10 matches of the new season for more reliable odds predictions. At the beginning of the seasons, the CS fields may be empty.

Poisson Distribution Football Correct Score Predictions

You are browsing past 2 days matches stats. Current (Today's and 2 days in advance) statistics are available for FTT & PRO members only!

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