When you research the Lay The Draw (LTD – match not to finish as a draw) outcomes from match odds markets you most likely browse the past few matches statistics (teams’ form) and head to head trends. You may also check long, medium and short term stats. However, all those stats will not break the teams’ fixtures down in terms of the strength of the opposition (unless you spend a lot of time by grouping and calculating stats from those past fixtures by 1X2 odds).

That’s what we do with the Lay The Draw Odds Intervals Stats. For example, when we have the following fixture:

Everton vs Aston Villa (2.15 / 3.5 / 3.8)

We calculate the win stats, Profit/Loss and Average Odds for:

• Last 10 Everton’s matches when being priced to win between 2.00 & 2.3
• Last 10 Aton Villa’s matches when being priced to win between 3.6 and 4.

We look at both home & away matches and only in that competition (e.g. Premier League). By doing so, we can get a good indication of how teams performed under similar circumstances recently. Furthermore, we can track whether backing a given outcome would have been profitable or not in those matches.

The main reason for using the odds intervals stats for lay the draw is to spot a different angle to the usual form statistics and trends. It may be used as the main analysis angle for match odds markets betting/trading strategy or can be treated as one of the tools in your wider research.

This tool works on league matches only and is based on the fact that there are different strength teams involved. As a result, those clubs tend to approach matches differently when playing stronger and weaker opponents.

For example, Man United will dominate possession and play a lot more attacking when paying bottom half of the table teams. This way of playing may result in more wins and more goals scored. On the other hand, they tend to play more cautious, sit back and counter-attack when playing the so-called bog 6 clubs from the Premier League. Their record from those encounters may show a lot fewer wins or goals scored.

The stats below are sorted by the H_L10_PL column, which presents the most profitable teams to lay the draw in the last 10 home matches when being priced in similar odds intervals.

Similarly, you can sort the A_L10_PL column to identify the most profitable LTD outcomes in the away teams’ matches.

Furthermore, we include the usual stats for outcomes (H_L10 and A_L10) and averages odds in those 10 matches for home and away clubs (H_L10_AO and A_L10_AO).

The last two columns include simple teams goals scoring predictions (HP_FT and AP_FT).

It’s all ready to be sorted and filtered to find the best value lay the draw bets and trades.