Away Odds Movements — Back & Lay

For each match, we track Away outcome prices across the key pre-match windows: 48h → 24h → 60m → Close.
These snapshots reveal how the market reprices the Away team as information, sentiment and liquidity shift throughout the build-up.

What we capture

• Away Back price at 48h, 24h, 60m and Close
• Percentage drift/steam between windows (48→24, 24→60, 60→Close)
• Total movement from 48h to Close
• Strength classifications (Mild, Medium, Strong Steam/Drift)

Why this matters

Away teams often see sharper, more asymmetric moves — travel, rotation, fatigue and late lineup leaks create stronger imbalances in how the market prices risk. Tracking how the price moves often reveals more than the price alone.

How to use it (Back Away)

• Steam (price dropping) → increasing confidence in the Away side.
• Use case: strong for identifying:
  • underdogs gaining early smart-money support
  • late Away lineup advantages (e.g., star player unexpectedly starting)
  • overreaction to Home bias being corrected

How to use it (Lay Away)

• Drift (price rising) → weakening market conviction in the Away side.
• Ideal for:
  • opposing fragile underdogs losing support
  • spotting false steam that fully reverses before KO
  • taking advantage of inefficient early Away optimism

Reading the signal

• Strong Steam (≥ −8%) → heavy money backing Away; high conviction.
• Mild–Medium Steam (−1% to −8%) → steady strengthening.
• Stable → balanced, information-efficient pricing.
• Drift (+1% to +8%) → market rejecting the Away side.
• Strong Drift (≥ +8%) → widespread sell-off, often lineup- or fatigue-related.

In short:
Steam = strengthening Away side. Drift = weakening Away side.
Timing + magnitude of these moves provide elite information long before KO.