Poisson Distribution Over 2.5 Goals Odds For Football Betting & Trading
Welcome to the Poisson Distribution Over 2.5 Goals Odds for football betting & trading. Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events occur with a known constant mean rate and independently of the time since the last event. Poisson distribution has been successfully used in models to predict football scores probabilities and pricing up matches. Learn more about Poisson here.
We provide you with 3 Poisson Distribution Models for Football Betting & Trading
Usually, Poisson Distribution models are calculated on the current season’s stats only. We give you more insight by preparing 3 separate models:
- Short Term Model*– calculated on stats from current season’s only
- Medium Term Model – based on stats from the last 20 matches.
- Long Term Model – covering stats from the last 50 matches.
All stats are taken from single competitions only, e.g. for Premier League fixtures, we use only matches from the Premier League. Feel free to browse the Poisson stats below. The upcoming matches are available for FTT & PRO members only.
* The short term model needs at least 10 matches of the new season for more reliable odds predictions. At the beginning of the seasons, the CS fields may be empty.
How to use Poisson Distribution odds for football betting & trading?
We calculate all the odds for you, so you don’t need to do any calculations. The 3 Poisson models will give you 3 separate prices for a given outcome.
Let’s take, for example, the over 2.5 goals market and the following figures:
- CS – 1.6
- L20 – 1.7
- L50 – 1.55
Current Over 2.5 goals odds are 1.5.
Looking at the 3 odds figures above, we can quickly state that the 1.5 odds seem to be a poor value for this match as the calculated/fair odds for the 3 given models are significantly higher.
It’s worth noting that the current season’s odds will be more accurate after more matches are played. Therefore, you may want to consider them once there are 10 league game weeks played or so.
Ideally, you would like to find matches with all 3 odds lower than the current available price. However, once you find such matches, you may wish to analyse them in more detail to determine whether your shortlisted picks represent value or try learning about other important reasons for the odds to be suspiciously higher than they should be.
Poisson Distribution Over 2.5 Goals Odds
You are browsing past 2 days matches stats. Current (Today's and 2 days in advance) statistics are available for FTT & PRO members only!
Learn more about our subscription options and subscribe now!M | Date | Country | Competition | KO | Home | Away | CS | L20 | L50 | odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M | Date | Country | Competition | KO | Home | Away | CS | L20 | L50 | odds |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Brazil | Copa Paulista | 19:00 | Monte Azul | Noroeste | 3.70 | 1.30 | 1.67 | 2.75 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Europe | Euro Women | 17:00 | England W | Netherlands W | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.90 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Brazil | Copa do Nordeste | 23:00 | CSA | Ferroviário | 1.47 | 1.49 | 2.13 | 2.10 |
0 | 10/07/2025 | Brazil | Copa do Nordeste | 01:30 | Sport Recife | Ceará | 1.52 | 1.75 | 1.79 | 2.30 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 00:00 | Hudson Valley Hammers | Long Island Rough Riders | 1.69 | 1.27 | 1.41 | 1.70 |
1 | 10/07/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 17:00 | SJK | KÍ | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.80 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 00:00 | Kings Hammer | 1.25 | 1.32 | 1.39 | 1.70 | |
1 | 10/07/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 19:00 | Vllaznia Shkodër | FC Daugavpils | 1.61 | 1.64 | 2.50 | 1.95 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | USA | US Open Cup | 01:00 | Minnesota United | Chicago Fire | 1.10 | 1.23 | 1.64 | 1.53 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Northern Ireland | Championship Women | 19:30 | Ballyclare Comrades W | Bangor Ladies W | 1.12 | 1.04 | 1.03 | 1.33 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 00:00 | The Villages | Inter Gainesville | 1.52 | 1.23 | 1.33 | 1.50 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Brazil | Brasileiro U20 | 19:00 | Gremio U20 | Atletico-PR U20 | 2.56 | 1.61 | 1.56 | 1.86 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 00:00 | Wake | Charlotte Eagles | 1.37 | 1.15 | 1.12 | 1.36 |
0 | 10/07/2025 | Europe | Euro Women | 20:00 | Norway W | Iceland W | 2.50 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 2.05 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Iceland | 4. Deild | 20:15 | Kría | Ellidi | 1.43 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.29 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Venezuela | Copa Venezuela | 20:00 | Real Frontera | Ureña | 0.00 | 1.54 | 2.17 | 1.70 |
0 | 10/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 01:00 | City SC | Seahorses | 2.50 | 1.14 | 1.19 | 1.30 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | USA | NPSL | 22:00 | Virginia Dream | Grove Soccer United | 1.00 | 1.18 | 1.16 | 1.33 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Northern Ireland | Championship Women | 19:30 | Sion Swifts W | 1.01 | 1.12 | 1.15 | 1.25 | |
0 | 09/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 00:00 | Boston City | Seacoast United Phantoms | 1.37 | 1.11 | 1.12 | 1.22 |
0 | 10/07/2025 | Brazil | Copa do Nordeste | 01:30 | Bahia | Fortaleza | 1.18 | 2.00 | 2.22 | 2.11 |
0 | 10/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 01:00 | Sunflower State | Santafé Wanderers | 1.06 | 1.09 | 1.10 | 1.20 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 00:30 | Apotheos | Columbus United | 1.45 | 1.56 | 1.64 | 1.65 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Venezuela | Copa Venezuela | 20:30 | Atlético El Vigía | Estudiantes Mérida | 0.00 | 1.82 | 2.22 | 1.91 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Northern Ireland | Championship Women | 19:30 | 1.05 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.20 | ||
0 | 09/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 00:00 | Chicago Dutch Lions | 1.28 | 1.16 | 1.15 | 1.22 | |
0 | 10/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 01:00 | AHFC Royals | Corpus Christi | 1.09 | 1.52 | 1.56 | 1.57 |
0 | 10/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 01:00 | RKC | Minneapolis City | 1.45 | 1.28 | 1.35 | 1.33 |
1 | 09/07/2025 | USA | Major League Soccer | 00:30 | New England | Inter Miami | 1.47 | 1.30 | 1.69 | 1.33 |
1 | 10/07/2025 | USA | Major League Soccer | 03:25 | Los Angeles FC | Colorado Rapids | 2.70 | 1.47 | 1.47 | 1.50 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Australia | Victoria Premier League 2 | 11:00 | Western United II | Bulleen Lions | 1.49 | 1.28 | 1.56 | 1.29 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 00:00 | Dayton Dutch Lions | Fort Wayne | 5.00 | 1.72 | 1.56 | 1.73 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Venezuela | Copa Venezuela | 20:00 | Yaracuyanos | Marítimo | 12.50 | 1.89 | 2.86 | 1.90 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Iceland | 4. Deild | 20:15 | Álftanes | Hafnir | 1.06 | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.20 |
0 | 10/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 01:30 | Marin | SF Glens | 2.94 | 1.52 | 1.47 | 1.50 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Finland | Ykkonen | 16:30 | TPS | Klubi-04 | 1.19 | 1.37 | 1.41 | 1.33 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Brazil | Brasileiro U20 | 19:00 | Atlético GO U20 | Atletico Mineiro U20 | 1.82 | 1.64 | 1.27 | 1.60 |
0 | 10/07/2025 | Northern Ireland | Championship Women | 19:30 | Belfast Celtic W | Ballymena Allstars W | 1.03 | 1.18 | 1.11 | 1.13 |
0 | 10/07/2025 | Malawi | Super League | 13:30 | Silver Strikers | MAFCO | 20.00 | 2.13 | 2.27 | 2.05 |
0 | 10/07/2025 | Finland | Kakkonen | 16:30 | Kraft | JBK | 1.41 | 1.43 | 1.61 | 1.30 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Norway | NM Cup | 19:00 | Sarpsborg 08 | Viking | 12.50 | 1.69 | 1.33 | 1.53 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Canada | Championship | 02:30 | Cavalry | Vancouver FC | 1.25 | 1.96 | 2.56 | 1.80 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Venezuela | Copa Venezuela | 00:30 | Dinamo Puerto La Cruz | Aragua | 12.50 | 2.27 | 2.27 | 2.05 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Brazil | Brasileiro U20 | 01:00 | Cruzeiro U20 | Fluminense U20 | 1.64 | 2.08 | 1.72 | 1.85 |
0 | 10/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 03:00 | San Francisco City | Project 51O | 1.39 | 1.64 | 1.59 | 1.40 |
0 | 10/07/2025 | Iceland | 3. Deild | 20:15 | Augnablik | Árbær | 2.44 | 1.54 | 1.25 | 1.30 |
1 | 10/07/2025 | Europe | Europa League | 19:15 | Spartak Trnava | Häcken | 2.56 | 1.96 | 1.96 | 1.70 |
0 | 10/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 01:00 | Little Rock Rangers | Mississippi Brilla | 3.03 | 1.92 | 2.13 | 1.65 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Finland | Ykkonen | 16:30 | EIF | SalPa | 1.54 | 1.85 | 2.08 | 1.57 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Norway | 3. Division - Group 1 | 18:00 | KFUM II | Frigg | 1.75 | 1.61 | 1.52 | 1.29 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Iceland | 4. Deild | 20:15 | Hamar | Árborg | 1.30 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.25 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 00:30 | Southern Soccer Academy | Asheville City | 1.39 | 1.72 | 1.72 | 1.33 |
0 | 10/07/2025 | Brazil | Brasileiro U20 | 01:00 | Palmeiras U20 | Sao Paulo U20 | 1.64 | 1.89 | 1.56 | 1.47 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 23:00 | Northern Indiana | Michigan Bucks | 2.33 | 1.96 | 2.17 | 1.50 |
0 | 10/07/2025 | Brazil | Brasileiro U20 | 22:00 | Flamengo RJ U20 | Botafogo U20 | 1.75 | 2.17 | 1.96 | 1.70 |
0 | 10/07/2025 | Finland | Kakkonen | 16:00 | PPJ | HJS Akatemia | 1.35 | 1.89 | 1.59 | 1.36 |
0 | 10/07/2025 | Chile | Chilean Cup | 23:00 | Huachipato | Concepcion | 1.02 | 2.50 | 2.38 | 1.90 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 00:00 | AC Connecticut | Black Rock | 5.88 | 2.27 | 1.79 | 1.60 |
0 | 10/07/2025 | Ecuador | Primera B | 21:30 | Chacaritas | 2.04 | 2.63 | 2.33 | 1.93 | |
0 | 10/07/2025 | Mongolia | Premier League | 12:15 | Deren | Khangarid | 2.94 | 1.96 | 1.41 | 1.25 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Venezuela | Copa Venezuela | 20:30 | Rayo Zuliano | Héroes de Falcón | 1.01 | 2.38 | 3.57 | 1.57 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Ecuador | Primera B | 21:30 | Leones del Norte | Independiente Juniors | 2.13 | 3.70 | 3.33 | 2.88 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | USA | US Open Cup | 00:00 | Philadelphia Union | New York RB | 1.20 | 2.56 | 2.38 | 1.70 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 00:00 | Miami | Weston | 1.54 | 2.38 | 2.94 | 1.50 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Chile | Chilean Cup | 20:00 | Curicó Unido | Audax Italiano | 20.00 | 3.03 | 2.17 | 2.15 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Brazil | Copa do Nordeste | 01:30 | Vitória | Confiança | 5.88 | 2.86 | 2.56 | 1.95 |
0 | 10/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 01:00 | Tennessee | 1.43 | 2.44 | 2.70 | 1.53 | |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Finland | Ykkonen | 16:30 | KäPa | PK-35 | 2.50 | 2.38 | 1.41 | 1.40 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Brazil | Brasileiro U20 | 19:00 | Corinthians U20 | América Mineiro U20 | 2.27 | 2.86 | 2.63 | 1.88 |
1 | 09/07/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 19:45 | Shelbourne | Linfield | 3.23 | 3.57 | 3.57 | 2.50 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Venezuela | Copa Venezuela | 21:00 | Mineros de Guayana | Monagas | 1.04 | 3.13 | 2.33 | 2.05 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Venezuela | Copa Venezuela | 22:00 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | Trujillanos | 1.32 | 3.13 | 4.35 | 2.04 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Norway | NM Cup | 17:00 | Lillestrøm | Kristiansund | 4.00 | 2.78 | 1.72 | 1.62 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Europe | Euro Women | 20:00 | France W | Wales W | 2.27 | 2.70 | 2.70 | 1.53 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Venezuela | Copa Venezuela | 23:00 | Zamora Fútbol Club | Titanes | 1.72 | 3.23 | 2.70 | 2.03 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Mongolia | Premier League | 06:15 | Khovd | Hunters | 1.85 | 2.33 | 1.89 | 1.11 |
0 | 10/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 01:00 | Snohomish United | Tacoma Stars | 14.29 | 2.56 | 2.63 | 1.30 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Chile | Chilean Cup | 00:00 | La Serena | Santiago Wanderers | 1.96 | 3.23 | 3.23 | 1.90 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Ecuador | Primera B | 01:00 | Imbabura | San Antonio | 5.00 | 3.70 | 4.00 | 2.25 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 23:00 | Boston | 1.59 | 3.23 | 2.94 | 1.57 | |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Mozambique | Mocambola | 13:45 | Ferroviário Nampula | Ferroviario Beira | 7.69 | 4.17 | 3.70 | 2.50 |
1 | 10/07/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 17:00 | Torpedo Kutaisi | Ordabasy | 1.85 | 4.00 | 2.33 | 2.30 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Argentina | Primera B Metropolitana | 00:05 | Midland | Argentino Merlo | 8.33 | 4.55 | 3.23 | 2.25 |
1 | 10/07/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 19:00 | Torpedo BelAZ | Rabotnicki | 8.33 | 5.00 | 3.85 | 2.08 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Venezuela | Copa Venezuela | 21:00 | Angostura | Bolívar | 12.50 | 4.76 | 4.76 | 1.70 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Venezuela | Copa Venezuela | 23:00 | Caracas | Petare | 3.13 | 5.88 | 6.67 | 2.15 |
1 | 09/07/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 18:30 | Ludogorets | Dinamo Minsk | 5.00 | 9.09 | 3.57 | 1.62 |
0 | 09/07/2025 | Ecuador | Primera B | 01:00 | Guayaquil City | 20.00 | 20.00 | 7.69 | 2.25 |