Poisson Distribution Over 2.5 Goals Odds For Football Betting & Trading
Welcome to the Poisson Distribution Over 2.5 Goals Odds for football betting & trading. Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events occur with a known constant mean rate and independently of the time since the last event. Poisson distribution has been successfully used in models to predict football scores probabilities and pricing up matches. Learn more about Poisson here.
We provide you with 3 Poisson Distribution Models for Football Betting & Trading
Usually, Poisson Distribution models are calculated on the current season’s stats only. We give you more insight by preparing 3 separate models:
- Short Term Model*– calculated on stats from current season’s only
- Medium Term Model – based on stats from the last 20 matches.
- Long Term Model – covering stats from the last 50 matches.
All stats are taken from single competitions only, e.g. for Premier League fixtures, we use only matches from the Premier League. Feel free to browse the Poisson stats below. The upcoming matches are available for FTT & PRO members only.
* The short term model needs at least 10 matches of the new season for more reliable odds predictions. At the beginning of the seasons, the CS fields may be empty.
How to use Poisson Distribution odds for football betting & trading?
We calculate all the odds for you, so you don’t need to do any calculations. The 3 Poisson models will give you 3 separate prices for a given outcome.
Let’s take, for example, the over 2.5 goals market and the following figures:
- CS – 1.6
- L20 – 1.7
- L50 – 1.55
Current Over 2.5 goals odds are 1.5.
Looking at the 3 odds figures above, we can quickly state that the 1.5 odds seem to be a poor value for this match as the calculated/fair odds for the 3 given models are significantly higher.
It’s worth noting that the current season’s odds will be more accurate after more matches are played. Therefore, you may want to consider them once there are 10 league game weeks played or so.
Ideally, you would like to find matches with all 3 odds lower than the current available price. However, once you find such matches, you may wish to analyse them in more detail to determine whether your shortlisted picks represent value or try learning about other important reasons for the odds to be suspiciously higher than they should be.
Poisson Distribution Over 2.5 Goals Odds
You are browsing past 2 days matches stats. Current (Today's and 2 days in advance) statistics are available for FTT & PRO members only!
Learn more about our subscription options and subscribe now!M | Date | Country | Competition | KO | Home | Away | CS | L20 | L50 | odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M | Date | Country | Competition | KO | Home | Away | CS | L20 | L50 | odds |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Ecuador | Primera B | 21:30 | Guayaquil City | Cumbaya | 1.85 | 1.30 | 1.96 | 2.30 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Brazil | Copa Paulista | 19:00 | Monte Azul | CA Linense | 6.25 | 1.45 | 2.00 | 2.40 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Brazil | Copa do Brasil | 23:00 | CSA | Vasco da Gama | 2.13 | 1.75 | 2.44 | 2.50 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Ecuador | Primera B | 19:00 | Independiente Juniors | Imbabura | 2.38 | 1.61 | 1.67 | 2.35 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Peru | Primera Division | 19:00 | Ayacucho | Sport Boys | 1.59 | 1.75 | 2.63 | 2.40 |
1 | 29/07/2025 | Brazil | Serie A | 00:30 | Grêmio | Fortaleza | 4.35 | 1.56 | 1.79 | 2.08 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Brazil | Serie B | 01:30 | Paysandu | Athletic Club | 2.22 | 1.96 | 2.27 | 2.40 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Brazil | Copa Paulista | 23:00 | Inter de Limeira | Francana | 1.05 | 2.04 | 2.17 | 2.40 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Finland | Kansallinen Liiga Women | 16:30 | VIFK W | PK-35 W | 1.67 | 1.47 | 1.54 | 1.73 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Czech Republic | 2. Liga FNL | 17:00 | České Budějovice | Banik Ostrava B | 2.78 | 1.69 | 1.47 | 1.95 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Russia | Russian Cup | 18:45 | Rostov | Spartak Moskva | 1.25 | 1.61 | 1.79 | 1.87 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Iceland | 2. Deild | 20:15 | KFG | Thróttur Vogar | 2.22 | 1.18 | 1.25 | 1.44 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Republic of Ireland | Women's National League | 19:45 | Shamrock Rovers W | 1.43 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.53 | |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Iceland | 2. Deild | 20:15 | Vídir | Höttur / Huginn | 1.75 | 1.20 | 1.39 | 1.40 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Mexico | Liga Mx Women | 04:00 | Mazatlán W | Pachuca W | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.22 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Norway | Obos-Ligaen | 17:00 | Hødd | Egersund | 2.17 | 1.61 | 1.85 | 1.73 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Iceland | Inkasso-Deildin | 20:15 | Thróttur Reykjavík | Fylkir | 1.25 | 1.33 | 1.39 | 1.44 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Scotland | Football League - Lowland League | 19:45 | Gretna 2008 | Hearts U21 | 1.30 | 1.43 | 1.35 | 1.53 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Paraguay | Division 1 | 00:00 | Olimpia | Deportivo Recoleta | 1.47 | 1.85 | 1.69 | 1.95 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Norway | Obos-Ligaen | 17:00 | Skeid | Ranheim | 1.32 | 1.39 | 1.49 | 1.48 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Iceland | 2. Deild | 19:00 | Dalvík / Reynir | Grótta | 5.88 | 1.72 | 1.56 | 1.80 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Iceland | 3. Deild | 21:00 | Hvíti riddarinn | Ýmir | 1.16 | 1.25 | 1.30 | 1.33 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Peru | Primera Division | 21:15 | Sporting Cristal | Sport Huancayo | 2.44 | 1.59 | 1.79 | 1.67 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | USA | USL Championship | 00:00 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Miami FC II | 3.03 | 1.79 | 2.27 | 1.85 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Norway | Obos-Ligaen | 17:00 | Mjøndalen | Åsane | 1.35 | 1.69 | 1.67 | 1.75 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Australia | Ffa Cup | 10:30 | Canberra FC | NE MetroStars | 1.14 | 1.39 | 1.49 | 1.44 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Norway | Obos-Ligaen | 17:00 | Kongsvinger | Start | 1.72 | 1.45 | 1.64 | 1.50 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Iceland | 4. Deild | 21:00 | KH | Álftanes | 3.13 | 1.16 | 1.28 | 1.20 |
1 | 30/07/2025 | Norway | Eliteserien | 18:00 | Bodø / Glimt | Strømsgodset | 1.08 | 1.14 | 1.27 | 1.18 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Australia | Northern Nsw | 11:00 | New Lambton | Adamstown Rosebuds | 1.10 | 1.32 | 1.39 | 1.33 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Argentina | Primera B Nacional | 01:10 | Atlanta | Racing Córdoba | 1.82 | 2.70 | 1.96 | 2.70 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Iceland | Inkasso-Deildin | 20:15 | Njardvík | HK | 2.94 | 1.45 | 1.32 | 1.44 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Iceland | 4. Deild | 20:15 | Árborg | Hafnir | 1.14 | 1.15 | 1.27 | 1.14 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Norway | Obos-Ligaen | 17:00 | Odd | Stabæk | 2.08 | 1.67 | 1.75 | 1.65 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Iceland | Inkasso-Deildin | 19:00 | Thór | Grindavík | 1.18 | 1.28 | 1.61 | 1.25 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Iceland | Inkasso-Deildin | 20:15 | Selfoss | ÍR | 2.22 | 1.75 | 1.67 | 1.70 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Finland | Kakkonen | 16:30 | SJK Akatemia II | VIFK | 1.04 | 1.20 | 1.25 | 1.14 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Iceland | Inkasso-Deildin | 19:30 | Fjölnir | Völsungur | 1.54 | 1.47 | 1.43 | 1.40 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Brazil | Copa Paulista | 23:00 | Uniao Sao Joao | Botafogo SP | 25.00 | 1.92 | 1.85 | 1.85 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Iceland | 4. Deild | 20:15 | Vængir Jupiters | Hamar | 1.37 | 1.25 | 1.28 | 1.17 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | New Zealand | Regional Leagues | 08:00 | Auckland City | Birkenhead United | 1.54 | 1.49 | 1.64 | 1.40 |
1 | 30/07/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 19:45 | Salzburg | Brann | 1.47 | 1.59 | 1.75 | 1.50 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Iceland | 3. Deild | 20:15 | Augnablik | IH Hafnarfjordur | 1.22 | 1.16 | 1.14 | 1.06 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | World | Club Friendlies 1 | 19:00 | PSV | FC Eindhoven | 1.72 | 1.32 | 1.45 | 1.22 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Australia | Northern Nsw | 11:00 | Cooks Hill United | Hamilton Olympic | 2.22 | 1.69 | 1.72 | 1.57 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Iceland | 3. Deild | 19:00 | Reynir | Tindastóll | 1.12 | 1.45 | 1.30 | 1.33 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Norway | Obos-Ligaen | 17:00 | Lyn | Aalesund | 2.38 | 2.08 | 1.27 | 1.95 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Australia | Ffa Cup | 10:30 | Brisbane City | Olympic | 2.78 | 1.89 | 1.41 | 1.73 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Australia | Queensland NPL Women | 11:30 | Eastern Suburbs NPL | Brisbane City W | 1.82 | 1.61 | 1.79 | 1.44 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Finland | Kolmonen | 17:00 | Jyväskylä Blackbird | JJK Jyväskylä II | 1.61 | 1.27 | 1.28 | 1.08 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Iceland | 1. Deild Women | 20:15 | Haukar W | Fylkir W | 1.79 | 1.49 | 1.43 | 1.29 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Iceland | 1. Deild Women | 20:15 | Keflavík W | IA Akranes W | 2.22 | 1.67 | 1.89 | 1.44 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Czech Republic | 2. Liga FNL | 16:00 | Sparta Praha B | Slavia Praha B | 11.11 | 1.89 | 1.67 | 1.65 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Brazil | Copa do Brasil | 23:00 | Botafogo | Bragantino | 1.82 | 2.50 | 2.17 | 2.20 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Paraguay | Division 1 | 20:00 | General Caballero JLM | Sportivo Trinidense | 1.92 | 2.56 | 2.50 | 2.25 |
1 | 30/07/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 19:00 | Panathinaikos | Rangers | 1.79 | 1.89 | 2.56 | 1.50 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Brazil | Copa do Brasil | 23:30 | Bahia | Retrô | 1.82 | 2.04 | 2.56 | 1.62 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Australia | Ffa Cup | 12:00 | Olympic Kingsway | Melbourne Victory | 1.39 | 1.72 | 1.75 | 1.29 |
1 | 29/07/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 20:00 | Crvena Zvezda | Lincoln Red Imps | 1.10 | 1.61 | 1.72 | 1.17 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Ecuador | Primera B | 01:00 | San Antonio | Vargas Torres | 2.38 | 3.13 | 4.00 | 2.63 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Iceland | Inkasso-Deildin | 20:15 | Leiknir Reykjavík | Keflavík | 1.30 | 2.04 | 1.85 | 1.50 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | USA | USL League One | 00:00 | One Knoxville | Charlotte Independence | 1.59 | 2.50 | 1.89 | 1.90 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Paraguay | Division 1 | 21:30 | Cerro Porteño | 2 de Mayo | 3.45 | 2.70 | 2.33 | 2.08 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Scotland | Football League - Lowland League | 19:45 | Cowdenbeath | Bo'ness United | 2.50 | 2.17 | 2.04 | 1.53 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Romania | Romania Cup | 15:30 | Unirea Bascov | Vediţa Coloneşti | 1.39 | 2.33 | 2.38 | 1.67 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Colombia | Liga BetPlay | 02:10 | Millonarios | Llaneros | 2.63 | 2.78 | 2.86 | 2.10 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Norway | Obos-Ligaen | 17:00 | Moss | Sogndal | 1.43 | 2.33 | 1.96 | 1.60 |
1 | 30/07/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 18:00 | Malmö FF | Rīgas FS | 12.50 | 2.38 | 2.33 | 1.62 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Argentina | Copa Argentina | 19:30 | Independiente Rivadavia | Central Córdoba | 0.00 | 2.94 | 3.45 | 2.08 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Scotland | Football League - Lowland League | 19:45 | Stirling University | Linlithgow Rose | 2.38 | 2.56 | 2.27 | 1.67 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Brazil | Serie B | 01:35 | Goiás | Remo | 1.85 | 3.13 | 2.38 | 2.20 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Canada | Premier League | 01:00 | Valour | Cavalry | 2.56 | 2.94 | 2.78 | 1.95 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Brazil | Copa do Brasil | 23:30 | Cruzeiro | CRB | 5.56 | 2.94 | 2.63 | 1.95 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Brazil | Serie B | 00:30 | Criciúma | Cuiabá | 2.33 | 3.70 | 2.70 | 2.70 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Czech Republic | 2. Liga FNL | 17:00 | Táborsko | Vlašim | 1.89 | 2.94 | 2.33 | 1.80 |
1 | 29/07/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 16:00 | Kairat | KuPS | 0.00 | 2.78 | 2.63 | 1.62 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Chile | Primera B | 01:15 | San Marcos | Magallanes | 3.57 | 3.45 | 1.75 | 2.22 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Norway | Obos-Ligaen | 19:00 | Lillestrøm | Raufoss | 2.70 | 2.63 | 2.00 | 1.30 |
1 | 30/07/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 19:00 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Paphos | 3.85 | 3.33 | 3.45 | 1.95 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Australia | Queensland Premier League | 10:30 | Magic United | Rochedale Rovers | 2.50 | 2.86 | 2.13 | 1.33 |
1 | 30/07/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 17:00 | Qarabağ | Shelbourne | 2.13 | 3.03 | 3.03 | 1.50 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Czech Republic | 2. Liga FNL | 17:00 | Prostějov | Opava | 0.00 | 3.70 | 3.13 | 2.15 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Russia | Russian Cup | 16:30 | Akron | Baltika | 9.09 | 3.45 | 3.23 | 1.85 |
1 | 29/07/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 19:30 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | Olimpija | 3.33 | 3.23 | 1.67 | 1.53 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Paraguay | Division 1 | 22:30 | Sportivo Luqueño | Nacional Asunción | 9.09 | 4.76 | 3.13 | 2.40 |
1 | 30/07/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 18:30 | FCSB | Skendija 79 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 3.33 | 1.50 |
1 | 29/07/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 19:00 | Dynamo Kyiv | Hamrun Spartans | 1.75 | 4.76 | 4.00 | 1.60 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Romania | Romania Cup | 15:30 | Codlea | ACS Mediaş 2022 | 1.96 | 5.26 | 6.67 | 1.20 |
0 | 30/07/2025 | Honduras | Liga Nacional | 22:00 | Juticalpa | Platense | 16.67 | 6.25 | 3.70 | 1.84 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Panama | Lpf | 02:30 | UMECIT | Árabe Unido | 7.69 | 10.00 | 3.33 | 2.50 |
0 | 29/07/2025 | Ecuador | Primera B | 21:30 | Leones del Norte | 12.50 | 10.00 | 7.69 | 2.20 |