Over 2.5 Goals System Builder includes the following data: 

• Match Odds
• Back Home Win Statistics (Long, medium & short term models)
• Goals Averages Numbers (Long, medium & short term models)
• Back Home Teams Dropping Odds
• Poisson Distribution Odds For Home Wins
• Leagues Home Win Stats & Trends

*All odds are downloaded from Bet365.

Headers for the stats in the tables below:

• M. – Major Leagues (1) or Minor Leagues (0)
• 1 – Home win odds
• X – Draw odds
• 2 – Away win odds
• S_odds – starting Home Win odds (a couple of days before the match)
• C_odds  – current Home Win odds
• Diff – Difference in % chance of Home Win based on the odds movement
• CS – Current season Home Win Poisson Odds
• L20 – Last 20 matches Home Win Poisson Odds
• L50 – Last 50 matches Home Win Poisson Odds
• HL20 – Home Team’s last 20 matches
• HL10H – Home Team’s last 10 matches at Home
• HL6 – Home Team’s last 6 matches
• AL20 – Away Team’s last 20 matches
• AL10A – Away Team’s last 10 away matches
• AL6 – Away Team’s last 6 matches
• AVG – Average of all the above items.
• H2H No – Number of Head 2 Head matches (max last 8 meetings)
• H2H % – Percentage of matches finishing over 2.5 goals in the H2H meetings
• H2H_AVG_T – H2H average total goals
• H2H_AVG_H – H2H average goals for the home team
• H2H_AVG_A – H2H average goals for the away teams

And similar averages for long, medium and short term periods for both home and away teams (total goals averages, goals for averages and goals-against averages).

Most of the back home win systems are based on various statistical data and models. Generally speaking, the more data you have access to, the more options you will have to narrow down your selections and shortlist only the strongest fixtures that meet all your filters.

Start by downloading the whole table with the home win sheets and import it to your spreadsheet file. The imported data will be unformatted, so you will need to add your colors, filters etc. It’s useful to prepare a template for your data e.g.:

• leave sheet 1 blank for inserting the data
• use formulas to copy data from sheet 1 to sheet 2 where you will have all formatting etc.
• prepare your color formatting for different cells, add % and other suffixes where needed
• use filters and sorting options to narrow down your selections and save them for repeated use

There are various possibilities with filtering the data and you may want to google spreadsheet functions and automation to speed up the whole process.

How to filter the data?

Some ideas to get you started:

• filter the M. column to 1 for matches from Major Competitions only
• filter the 1 column to find matches where home teams are priced below 1.6 (e.g. strong home favourites).
• filter HL10H_AVG column to find matches where home teams average 2 goals scored in their last 10 home matches.

And so on. Once you have a bigger sample of fixtures, you will be able to filter various ideas and scenarios.

• We provide two separate models for our systems builder sheets – All Competitions and Single Competitions. The stats are calculated based on matches from all competitions (excluding friendlies) or the current competition only.
• The stats are updated 4 times a day to accommodate the dropping odds data and include fairly current odds.
• The systems builder’s data is available for today and tomorrow’s matches only (this is to allow all individual components to generate and update current odds etc.)
• We encourage you to run your analysis a night in advance or in the morning before the fixtures to secure better odds for your systems.
• If you see any errors in stats, problems with displaying tables, have any feedback or questions, then please get in touch.