Home Win Dropping Odds are very popular selections for backing home teams to win that resulted in the price (odds) decreasing. When a selection, in this case, Home Win (1 in 1X2 market), gets heavily backed, the bookmakers defend themselves by dropping (decreasing) their odds. This implies that the chance of the home win outcome increases, however, that’s often not the case.

Similarly, if a team is heavily laid (Lay home win), their odds drift which implies that their chances of winning are decreasing.

Most of the football fixtures and markets such as Home Wins (Back/Lay Home Teams) are priced by the bookies a few days in advance (in some cases it’s even weeks or months – e.g. International tournaments, cup fixtures etc.). Hence, we can monitor the odds and see which teams are fancied to win (Back) or not to win (Lay).

There are 4 main types/stages of Home Win (Back/ Lay Home Team) dropping odds that can occur during different time intervals:

1. Days, weeks or months in advance – they are mostly caused by a drastic change in form, major injuries or other bad team news.
2. Overnight odds movements – most of them are caused by punters backing their selections for the day ahead, tipsters publishing their picks and their keen followers backing them too.
3. Changes in odds during the game before the kick-off – these prices are being moved by the casual and mug punters who look to back popular selections on the day. These often become so-called public bets and generally offer very little value.
4. An hour before the kick-off – the odds are purely driven by the line ups announcement and people reacting to the bad/good teams’ news.

Following the home win dropping odds tips may sound to many as a daft idea as the odds have already moved and will be betting at worse odds. Betting at smaller odds will obviously make a difference to your profit/loss figures as you won’t be getting the early good odds.

On the other hand, it will depend on how quickly you will spot the dropping odds movements. If you start monitoring the odds a night in advance or early in the morning, you may find that you are getting enough edge if you still manage to beat the bookies’ closing odds.

Sample idea to use the dropping odds features:

• Start with monitoring the early drops e.g. night or 2 nights in advance
• make a shortlist of selections that have steamed in price (odds dropped by a small %)
• research those matches to get a better understanding of why a particular betting outcome is backed and fancied by early punters (this can be done by checking stats, trends, teams’ news, morale, motivation and other circumstances).
• makes note of further odds drops and final scores

Dropping odds strategies may be more effective for certain competitions and you may find yourself having better success in those smaller and minor leagues & competitions. It’s purely because bookies won’t have those leagues as well researched and may leave generous prices.

Furthermore, you can use these dropping odds fixtures for our Pre Kick Off Football Trading strategies.