Home Odds Movements — Back & Lay

For each match, we track Home outcome prices across the key pre-match windows: 48h → 24h → 60m → Close. These snapshots reveal how the market reshapes its expectations as team news, lineups and money flows arrive.

What we capture

• Home Back price at 48h, 24h, 60m and Close
• Percentage drift/steam between windows (48→24, 24→60, 60→Close)
• Total movement from 48h to Close
• Strength categories (Mild, Medium, Strong Steam/Drift)

Why this matters

Odds movements tell you not just what the price is — but why the market is moving. The behavioural flow of money is often more predictive than the raw price.

How to use it (Back Home)

• Steaming in (price dropping) → market confidence increases in the Home side.
• Use case: good for spotting:
  • early value before the big move finishes
  • team news advantage (lineup leak → steam)
  • favourites strengthening in late markets

How to use it (Lay Home)

• Drifting (price rising) → confidence in Home side is weakening.
• Use case: ideal for:
  • fading an overhyped favourite
  • opposing the crowd after late negative news
  • catching mispriced early favourites that the market corrects

Reading the signal

• Strong Steam (≥ −8%) → big money arriving on Home. High conviction shift.
• Mild–Medium Steam (−1% to −8%) → controlled, steady confidence.
• Stable → price efficiently balanced; no edge indicated.
• Drift (+1% to +8%) → market selling the Home side.
• Strong Drift (≥ +8%) → heavy opposition; often lineup-related.

In short: Steam = strength. Drift = weakness. Understanding the timing and magnitude of these movements is one of the most powerful edges in football markets.