Asian Goal Line — Over & Under Movements

Here we track the main Asian Goal Line (Over/Under) market — for example Over 2.5, Over 2.75, Over 3.0 — across the key pre-match windows: 48h → 24h → 60m → Close.

On screen we show the Over prices, but every move on Over has a mirrored effect on Under at the same line. Understanding this relationship is where the edge lives.

What we capture

• Over price at 48h, 24h, 60m and Close on the main Asian goal line
• Percentage steam/drift between each window (48→24, 24→60, 60→Close)
• Total movement from 48h to Close for that exact line
• Movement strength flags (Mild, Medium, Strong Steam/Drift)

How Over & Under move together

On a fixed Asian line (for example Over/Under 2.5):

• If Over price drops (steams), the implied goal expectation rises and the Under side is drifting on the same line.
• If Over price rises (drifts), the market is cooling on goals and the Under side is steaming at that line.
• We always compare movements on the same line — no nearest-line shortcuts.

How to use it (Back Over)

• Over steaming (price dropping) → the market expects more goals:
  • attacking lineups, aggressive coaches, high-tempo profiles
  • defensive absences or tactical shifts that expose space
  • must-win spots where a draw is damaging for one or both teams
• Small controlled steam can flag smart accumulation before a bigger move.

How to use it (Back Under / Lay Over)

• Over drifting (price rising) → the market is cooling on goals:
  • one or both attacks weakened (rotations, injuries, fatigue)
  • defensive setups, low-tempo styles, or game states favouring control
  • weather and pitch conditions that suppress chance creation
• When Over drifts, the same-line Under is effectively steaming — higher conviction in a lower-scoring game.

Reading movement strength

• Strong Steam on Over (≥ −8%) → aggressive money for goals; serious shift in expectation.
• Mild–Medium Steam (−1% to −8%) → steady confidence building in a higher-scoring game.
• Stable → line looks efficient; no strong opinion either way.
• Drift on Over (+1% to +8%) → market selling the goals narrative; Under side gaining respect.
• Strong Drift (≥ +8%) → heavy anti-goals money; ideal hunting ground for main-line Unders.

In short:
We show the Over price, but every move is a story about the Under side too.
Steam on Over = rising belief in goals. Drift on Over = rising belief in control and suppression.

PRO Tips (Asian Goal Line)

• Over steam + BTTS Yes steam → elite signal for high-event, end-to-end matches.
• Over drift + Draw steam → market leaning towards tight, controlled, low-variance games.
• Watch line changes: if 2.5 moves to 2.75 with Over still steaming, the market is repricing both probability and payoff.
• Late Over steam (inside 60m) is often lineup/bench-driven — super-subs and rotated defences.
• Strong Unders signal = Over drifting while main favourite also shortens → market expects control from the stronger side.