Poisson Distribution Under 3.5 Goals Odds For Football Betting & Trading
Welcome to the Poisson Distribution Under 3.5 Goals Odds for football betting & trading. Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events occur with a known constant mean rate and independently of the time since the last event. Poisson distribution has been successfully used in models to predict football scores probabilities and pricing up matches. Learn more about Poisson here.
We provide you with 3 Poisson Distribution Models for Football Betting & Trading
Usually, Poisson Distribution models are calculated on the current season’s stats only. We give you more insight by preparing 3 separate models:
- Short Term Model*– calculated on stats from current season’s only
- Medium Term Model – based on stats from the last 20 matches.
- Long Term Model – covering stats from the last 50 matches.
All stats are taken from single competitions only, e.g. for Premier League fixtures, we use only matches from the Premier League. Feel free to browse the Poisson stats below. The upcoming matches are available for FTT & PRO members only.
* The short term model needs at least 10 matches of the new season for more reliable odds predictions. At the beginning of the seasons, the CS fields may be empty.
How to use Poisson Distribution odds for football betting & trading?
We calculate all the odds for you, so you don’t need to do any calculations. The 3 Poisson models will give you 3 separate prices for a given outcome.
Let’s take, for example, the over 2.5 goals market and the following figures:
- CS – 1.6
- L20 – 1.7
- L50 – 1.55
Current Over 2.5 goals odds are 1.5.
Looking at the 3 odds figures above, we can quickly state that the 1.5 odds seem to be a poor value for this match as the calculated/fair odds for the 3 given models are significantly higher.
It’s worth noting that the current season’s odds will be more accurate after more matches are played. Therefore, you may want to consider them once there are 10 league game weeks played or so.
Ideally, you would like to find matches with all 3 odds lower than the current available price. However, once you find such matches, you may wish to analyse them in more detail to determine whether your shortlisted picks represent value or try learning about other important reasons for the odds to be suspiciously higher than they should be.
Poisson Distribution Under 3.5 Goals Odds
You are browsing past 2 days matches stats. Current (Today's and 2 days in advance) statistics are available for FTT & PRO members only!
Learn more about our subscription options and subscribe now!M | Date | Country | Competition | KO | Home | Away | CS | L20 | L50 | odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M | Date | Country | Competition | KO | Home | Away | CS | L20 | L50 | odds |
0 | 04/08/2025 | World | Club Friendlies 1 | 12:00 | Daegu | FC Barcelona | 4.17 | 1.82 | 1.43 | 6.00 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | World | Club Friendlies 1 | 20:00 | Liverpool | Athletic Club | 2.78 | 1.12 | 1.19 | 1.57 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Faroe Islands | Meistaradeildin | 16:00 | Suduroy | HB | 3.23 | 1.89 | 1.92 | 2.20 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Estonia | Esiliiga A | 17:00 | Nõmme Kalju II | Viimsi | 1.67 | 1.59 | 1.96 | 1.88 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Mexico | Liga Mx Women | 00:00 | Pumas UNAM W | Cruz Azul W | 1.75 | 1.33 | 1.54 | 1.62 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Serbia | Super Liga | 18:00 | Železničar Pančevo | Napredak | 1.00 | 1.19 | 1.39 | 1.44 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Poland | Polish Cup | 17:00 | Podbeskidzie | Resovia Rzeszów | 1.16 | 1.15 | 1.32 | 1.40 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Finland | Veikkausliiga | 17:00 | HJK | Inter Turku | 1.52 | 1.33 | 1.43 | 1.57 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Mexico | Liga Mx Women | 02:00 | Pachuca W | Toluca W | 1.18 | 1.67 | 1.89 | 1.91 |
1 | 04/08/2025 | Romania | Liga 1 | 19:30 | Rapid Bucuresti | Botoşani | 1.00 | 1.12 | 1.37 | 1.33 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Estonia | Esiliiga A | 17:00 | Elva | Tartu Welco | 1.96 | 1.47 | 1.56 | 1.67 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Peru | Primera Division | 18:00 | Alianza Universidad | Universitario | 1.15 | 1.10 | 1.18 | 1.29 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Sweden | Ettan: North | 18:00 | Vasalund | Hammarby Talang | 1.52 | 1.32 | 1.37 | 1.50 |
1 | 05/08/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 19:00 | Dynamo Kyiv | Paphos | 1.00 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.29 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Peru | Primera Division | 21:00 | Melgar | Juan Pablo II College | 1.54 | 1.33 | 1.39 | 1.50 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Republic of Ireland | First Division | 17:00 | Dundalk | Longford Town | 1.61 | 1.41 | 1.37 | 1.57 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Israel | Toto Cup Ligat Al | 17:45 | Ashdod | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 1.01 | 1.20 | 1.19 | 1.36 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Republic of Ireland | First Division | 17:00 | Finn Harps | Bray Wanderers | 1.35 | 1.25 | 1.23 | 1.40 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Chile | Primera Division | 23:00 | Universidad Chile | Cobresal | 1.82 | 1.39 | 1.47 | 1.53 |
1 | 04/08/2025 | Sweden | Allsvenskan | 18:00 | IFK Göteborg | Degerfors | 1.96 | 1.32 | 1.32 | 1.44 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Georgia | Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga | 18:00 | Dinamo Batumi | Dinamo Tbilisi | 1.12 | 1.08 | 1.39 | 1.19 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Sweden | Ettan: South | 18:00 | Skövde AIK | IFK Skovde | 6.25 | 1.56 | 1.82 | 1.67 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Brazil | Serie C | 20:00 | Brusque | Itabaiana | 1.03 | 1.05 | 1.08 | 1.14 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Bulgaria | Parva Liga | 17:00 | Cherno More | Beroe | 1.00 | 1.11 | 1.19 | 1.20 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Argentina | Primera C | 19:30 | Deportivo Muñiz | El Porvenir | 1.06 | 1.04 | 1.20 | 1.13 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Canada | Premier League | 23:00 | Pacific | Cavalry | 1.30 | 1.25 | 1.27 | 1.33 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Brazil | Gaucho 2 | 23:30 | Aimoré | Lajeadense | 1.06 | 1.03 | 1.06 | 1.11 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Uzbekistan | Professional Football League | 16:00 | Pakhtakor | OKMK | 1.41 | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.45 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Argentina | Primera B Nacional | 01:10 | Defensores de Belgrano | Deportivo Morón | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.09 | 1.10 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Finland | Kakkonen | 16:30 | VJS | PEPO | 2.70 | 2.04 | 1.85 | 2.10 |
1 | 05/08/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 19:45 | Rangers | Viktoria Plzeň | 1.05 | 1.28 | 1.43 | 1.33 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Paraguay | Division 1 | 20:00 | Sportivo Ameliano | Libertad | 1.09 | 1.10 | 1.18 | 1.13 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Brazil | Serie C | 23:30 | Ituano | Londrina | 1.25 | 1.15 | 1.19 | 1.17 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Argentina | Primera C | 19:30 | Claypole | Defensores de Cambaceres | 1.41 | 1.11 | 1.20 | 1.13 |
1 | 05/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 19:45 | KÍ | Neman Grodno | 1.04 | 1.23 | 1.35 | 1.25 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Sweden | Superettan | 18:00 | Umeå | Falkenberg | 1.47 | 1.56 | 1.82 | 1.57 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Lithuania | A Lyga | 18:00 | Žalgiris | Kauno Žalgiris | 1.05 | 1.32 | 1.41 | 1.33 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Paraguay | Division 1 | 22:30 | Deportivo Recoleta | Guaraní | 1.37 | 1.25 | 1.59 | 1.25 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Africa | African Nations Championship | 15:00 | Niger | Guinea | 1.18 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.14 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Canada | Premier League | 20:00 | HFX Wanderers | Vancouver FC | 1.49 | 1.59 | 1.41 | 1.57 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Paraguay | Division 1 | 22:30 | Atlético Tembetary | General Caballero JLM | 1.23 | 1.19 | 1.23 | 1.17 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Colombia | Copa Betplay | 22:00 | Cúcuta Deportivo | Atlético Nacional | 1.25 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.30 |
1 | 05/08/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 19:00 | Skendija 79 | Qarabağ | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.25 | 1.30 |
1 | 04/08/2025 | Romania | Liga 1 | 17:00 | Unirea Slobozia | Otelul | 0.00 | 1.22 | 1.12 | 1.18 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Colombia | Liga BetPlay | 02:30 | Rionegro Águilas | Fortaleza CEIF | 1.14 | 1.19 | 1.20 | 1.14 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Republic of Ireland | First Division | 17:00 | Athlone Town | UCD | 1.32 | 1.39 | 1.45 | 1.33 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Colombia | Torneo Betplay | 00:05 | Leones FC | Barranquilla | 1.56 | 1.35 | 1.45 | 1.29 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Chile | Primera B | 01:00 | Santiago Wanderers | San Marcos | 2.33 | 1.47 | 1.39 | 1.40 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Israel | Toto Cup Ligat Leumit | 19:15 | Hapoel Afula | Hapoel Ra'anana | 1.00 | 1.37 | 1.33 | 1.30 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Peru | Primera Division | 21:00 | Sport Boys | ADT | 1.69 | 1.32 | 1.39 | 1.25 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Bolivia | Liga De Futbol Prof | 22:30 | Always Ready | Nacional Potosí | 1.43 | 1.89 | 1.79 | 1.80 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Republic of Ireland | First Division | 17:00 | Cobh Ramblers | Wexford Youths | 1.32 | 1.54 | 1.52 | 1.44 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Ecuador | Liga Pro | 01:00 | Delfin | Vinotinto FC | 1.05 | 1.35 | 1.23 | 1.25 |
1 | 05/08/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 18:00 | Malmö FF | FC København | 1.00 | 1.30 | 1.41 | 1.20 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Bulgaria | Parva Liga | 19:15 | Botev Plovdiv | Arda | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.16 | 1.22 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Estonia | Meistriliiga | 17:00 | Tallinna Kalev | Vaprus | 2.56 | 1.61 | 1.23 | 1.50 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Peru | Primera Division | 01:00 | Cienciano | Los Chankas | 1.96 | 1.56 | 1.49 | 1.44 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Brazil | Serie D | 23:30 | Sampaio Corrêa | Manauara | 1.32 | 1.47 | 1.43 | 1.34 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Colombia | Torneo Betplay | 22:00 | Real San Andres | Bogotá | 1.37 | 1.43 | 1.25 | 1.30 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Poland | 1. Liga | 18:00 | Tychy 71 | Wisła Kraków | 50.00 | 1.59 | 1.54 | 1.44 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Mexico | Liga Mx Women | 02:00 | Santos Laguna W | Guadalajara W | 1.18 | 1.59 | 1.61 | 1.44 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Lithuania | A Lyga | 17:00 | Banga | FA Šiauliai | 1.18 | 1.45 | 1.33 | 1.29 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Sweden | Ettan: South | 18:00 | Hässleholms IF | Ariana | 1.20 | 1.52 | 1.47 | 1.36 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Brazil | Copa Paulista | 23:45 | São Bento | Rio Branco SP | 1.00 | 1.41 | 1.33 | 1.25 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Lithuania | A Lyga | 17:30 | Džiugas Telšiai | Hegelmann Litauen | 1.15 | 1.47 | 1.32 | 1.30 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Sweden | Ettan: South | 18:00 | Trollhättan | Ljungskile | 3.57 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.67 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Israel | Toto Cup Ligat Al | 18:00 | Maccabi Netanya | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 1.22 | 1.56 | 1.39 | 1.36 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Montenegro | First League | 19:00 | Arsenal Tivat | Jedinstvo | 1.35 | 1.43 | 1.47 | 1.22 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Israel | Toto Cup Ligat Leumit | 16:00 | Hapoel Hadera | Hapoel Acre | 1.64 | 1.56 | 1.47 | 1.33 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Argentina | Primera C | 19:30 | Berazategui | Central Córdoba | 1.20 | 1.37 | 1.19 | 1.14 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Brazil | Serie B | 01:30 | Cuiabá | Volta Redonda | 1.28 | 1.41 | 1.72 | 1.14 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Armenia | Premier League | 14:30 | Alashkert | Pyunik | 1.01 | 1.72 | 1.35 | 1.44 |
1 | 04/08/2025 | Brazil | Serie A | 00:00 | Santos | Juventude | 1.39 | 1.72 | 1.41 | 1.44 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Mexico | Liga Mx Women | 00:00 | Atlético San Luis W | Juárez W | 1.00 | 1.72 | 1.52 | 1.44 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Colombia | Torneo Betplay | 02:10 | Real Cartagena | Real Soacha | 2.70 | 1.59 | 1.43 | 1.29 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Bolivia | Liga De Futbol Prof | 20:30 | Oriente Petrolero | Aurora | 1.72 | 1.89 | 1.27 | 1.57 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Finland | Veikkausliiga | 16:00 | Ilves | Gnistan | 1.79 | 2.22 | 1.85 | 1.83 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Brazil | Paulista U20 | 19:00 | Velo Clube U20 | Mirassol U20 | 1.16 | 1.75 | 1.92 | 1.36 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Israel | Toto Cup Ligat Leumit | 18:00 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | Hapoel Kfar Shalem | 2.63 | 1.75 | 1.61 | 1.33 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Peru | Primera Division | 19:00 | UTC Cajamarca | Cusco FC | 1.35 | 1.75 | 1.37 | 1.30 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Republic of Ireland | First Division | 17:00 | Treaty United | Kerry | 2.22 | 1.92 | 1.54 | 1.40 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Brazil | Serie C | 23:30 | Confiança | Anápolis | 2.70 | 1.72 | 1.33 | 1.17 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Brazil | Serie B | 23:00 | Athletic Club | Atlético GO | 1.25 | 1.69 | 1.59 | 1.14 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Iceland | Pepsideild | 20:15 | ÍA | Valur | 2.04 | 2.27 | 2.27 | 1.67 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Israel | Toto Cup Ligat Leumit | 18:00 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | Ironi Modi'in | 8.33 | 2.27 | 1.85 | 1.40 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Australia | Npl Queensland | 10:45 | SC Wanderers | Eastern Suburbs Brisbane | 1.69 | 3.13 | 2.13 | 1.73 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Estonia | Esiliiga B | 17:00 | Paide U21 | Laanemaa Haapsalu | 2.78 | 4.00 | 3.03 | 2.00 |