Poisson Distribution Under 3.5 Goals Odds For Football Betting & Trading
Welcome to the Poisson Distribution Under 3.5 Goals Odds for football betting & trading. Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events occur with a known constant mean rate and independently of the time since the last event. Poisson distribution has been successfully used in models to predict football scores probabilities and pricing up matches. Learn more about Poisson here.
We provide you with 3 Poisson Distribution Models for Football Betting & Trading
Usually, Poisson Distribution models are calculated on the current season’s stats only. We give you more insight by preparing 3 separate models:
- Short Term Model*– calculated on stats from current season’s only
- Medium Term Model – based on stats from the last 20 matches.
- Long Term Model – covering stats from the last 50 matches.
All stats are taken from single competitions only, e.g. for Premier League fixtures, we use only matches from the Premier League. Feel free to browse the Poisson stats below. The upcoming matches are available for FTT & PRO members only.
* The short term model needs at least 10 matches of the new season for more reliable odds predictions. At the beginning of the seasons, the CS fields may be empty.
How to use Poisson Distribution odds for football betting & trading?
We calculate all the odds for you, so you don’t need to do any calculations. The 3 Poisson models will give you 3 separate prices for a given outcome.
Let’s take, for example, the over 2.5 goals market and the following figures:
- CS – 1.6
- L20 – 1.7
- L50 – 1.55
Current Over 2.5 goals odds are 1.5.
Looking at the 3 odds figures above, we can quickly state that the 1.5 odds seem to be a poor value for this match as the calculated/fair odds for the 3 given models are significantly higher.
It’s worth noting that the current season’s odds will be more accurate after more matches are played. Therefore, you may want to consider them once there are 10 league game weeks played or so.
Ideally, you would like to find matches with all 3 odds lower than the current available price. However, once you find such matches, you may wish to analyse them in more detail to determine whether your shortlisted picks represent value or try learning about other important reasons for the odds to be suspiciously higher than they should be.
Poisson Distribution Under 3.5 Goals Odds
You are browsing past 2 days matches stats. Current (Today's and 2 days in advance) statistics are available for FTT & PRO members only!
Learn more about our subscription options and subscribe now!M | Date | Country | Competition | KO | Home | Away | CS | L20 | L50 | odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M | Date | Country | Competition | KO | Home | Away | CS | L20 | L50 | odds |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Germany | DFB Pokal | 19:45 | Wehen Wiesbaden | FC Bayern München | 1.14 | 1.52 | 1.75 | 3.40 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Venezuela | Copa Venezuela | 21:00 | Carabobo | Portuguesa | 1.00 | 1.06 | 1.12 | 2.17 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Czech Republic | Czech Cup | 16:30 | TJ Tatran Bohunice | Zbrojovka Brno | 1.00 | 1.52 | 1.41 | 2.38 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Poland | 3. Liga - Group 1 | 16:00 | Warta Sieradz | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 1.85 | 1.47 | 1.41 | 2.28 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Australia | Queensland Premier League | 11:30 | Logan Lightning | Rochedale Rovers | 1.43 | 1.25 | 1.54 | 2.00 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Czech Republic | Czech Cup | 16:30 | FK Brandys nad Labem | Slovan Liberec | 16.67 | 1.92 | 1.64 | 2.63 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Mexico | Liga Mx Women | 02:00 | Pachuca W | Atlas W | 1.27 | 1.45 | 1.67 | 2.10 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Slovakia | Slovakia Cup | 16:00 | Partizán Bardejov | Vranov nad Topľou | 1.00 | 1.09 | 1.22 | 1.67 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Finland | Kolmonen | 17:00 | Yllätys | NiemU | 1.41 | 1.32 | 1.39 | 1.82 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Austria | Austrian Cup | 19:30 | Velden | Hartberg | 20.00 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 2.10 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 18:00 | SK Rapid | Győri ETO | 4.35 | 1.20 | 1.41 | 1.67 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Finland | Ykkonen | 16:30 | Lahti | Klubi-04 | 1.72 | 1.32 | 1.72 | 1.73 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Romania | Romania Cup | 15:30 | Şoimii Gura Humorului | Sepsi | 1.02 | 1.04 | 1.04 | 1.44 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Austria | Austrian Cup | 18:00 | Floridsdorfer AC | Stripfing | 1.00 | 1.12 | 1.22 | 1.50 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa League | 19:00 | Genk | Lech Poznań | 4.55 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.67 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 17:00 | Noah | Olimpija | 1.27 | 1.14 | 1.45 | 1.50 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Romania | Romania Cup | 15:00 | Corvinul Hunedoara | Farul Constanța | 1.01 | 1.06 | 1.19 | 1.40 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 19:00 | Baník Ostrava | Celje | 0.00 | 1.39 | 1.47 | 1.73 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Japan | Emperor Cup | 11:00 | Sagamihara | Vissel Kobe | 1.08 | 1.12 | 1.14 | 1.45 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Iceland | 3. Deild | 19:00 | Reynir | Augnablik | 3.33 | 1.59 | 1.54 | 1.89 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 20:00 | Virtus | Breidablik | 1.27 | 1.23 | 1.41 | 1.53 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Malaysia | Super League | 13:15 | Selangor | Terengganu | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1.32 | 1.38 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Czech Republic | Czech Cup | 16:30 | Vysoke Myto | Vysočina Jihlava | 1.11 | 1.39 | 1.49 | 1.67 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 19:00 | AEK Athens | Anderlecht | 1.00 | 1.09 | 1.19 | 1.36 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Scotland | Challenge Cup | 19:45 | Hamilton Academical | Edinburgh City | 1.00 | 1.19 | 1.35 | 1.44 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Chile | Primera Division | 00:00 | Everton | La Serena | 1.30 | 1.11 | 1.23 | 1.36 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa League | 18:30 | PAOK | Rijeka | 1.00 | 1.06 | 1.14 | 1.30 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Romania | Romania Cup | 15:30 | Metalul Buzău | Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt | 1.00 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.62 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 18:30 | AZ | Levski Sofia | 1.00 | 1.23 | 1.37 | 1.44 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Paraguay | Division Intermedia | 22:30 | River Plate | Fernando de la Mora | 1.12 | 1.16 | 1.22 | 1.37 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Romania | Romania Cup | 15:30 | Dumbrăviţa | Bihor Oradea | 7.69 | 1.09 | 1.18 | 1.29 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Colombia | Copa Betplay | 01:00 | Deportivo Pereira | Real Cundinamarca | 1.00 | 1.18 | 1.22 | 1.36 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Romania | Romania Cup | 15:30 | Voluntari | Csikszereda | 2.22 | 1.12 | 1.09 | 1.29 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Israel | State Cup | 16:30 | MS Dimona | Hapoel Azor | 2.56 | 1.19 | 1.16 | 1.36 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Japan | Emperor Cup | 11:00 | FC Tokyo | Urawa Reds | 1.32 | 1.15 | 1.19 | 1.31 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Czech Republic | Czech Cup | 16:30 | Rokycany | Mladá Boleslav | 16.67 | 1.64 | 1.35 | 1.80 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Venezuela | Copa Venezuela | 21:00 | UCV | Academia Anzoátegui | 1.00 | 1.23 | 1.20 | 1.39 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Malta | Premier League | 17:45 | Hibernians | Birkirkara | 1.00 | 1.14 | 1.19 | 1.30 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Uzbekistan | Uzbekistan Cup | 15:30 | Bunyodkor | Buxoro | 1.00 | 1.15 | 1.14 | 1.30 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Romania | Romania Cup | 15:30 | ASU Poli Timişoara | CS Dinamo București | 1.00 | 1.14 | 1.41 | 1.29 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Faroe Islands | 1. Deild | 20:00 | NSÍ II | Skála | 2.94 | 1.67 | 1.75 | 1.82 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Iceland | Premier League Women | 19:00 | Tindastóll W | Víkingur Reykjavík W | 2.22 | 1.64 | 2.38 | 1.79 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 20:00 | Legia Warszawa | Hibernian | 1.01 | 1.35 | 1.47 | 1.50 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Israel | State Cup | 19:15 | Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed | Hapoel Migdal Haemek | 2.13 | 1.35 | 1.20 | 1.50 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Brazil | Copa do Brasil | 01:30 | Vasco da Gama | Botafogo | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.25 | 1.22 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 19:45 | Linfield | Shelbourne | 1.03 | 1.08 | 1.14 | 1.22 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | England | Carabao Cup | 19:45 | Fulham | Bristol City | 7.14 | 1.37 | 1.25 | 1.50 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 18:00 | Rīgas FS | Hamrun Spartans | 1.69 | 1.20 | 1.15 | 1.33 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Uzbekistan | Uzbekistan Cup | 14:30 | Dinamo Samarqand | Shurtan | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1.14 | 1.22 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Tunisia | Ligue 1 | 16:30 | CS Sfaxien | JS Omrane | 1.02 | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.17 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Tunisia | Ligue 1 | 16:30 | AS Marsa | US Monastir | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.12 | 1.13 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Saudi Arabia | Pro League | 19:00 | Al Ettifaq | Al Kholood | 1.33 | 1.30 | 1.27 | 1.40 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Korea Republic | Korean Cup | 11:30 | Gangwon | Jeonbuk Motors | 1.39 | 1.16 | 1.14 | 1.25 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Venezuela | Copa Venezuela | 01:00 | Deportivo La Guaira | Caracas | 1.00 | 1.18 | 1.16 | 1.27 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Mexico | Liga Mx Women | 02:07 | Guadalajara W | Monterrey W | 1.14 | 1.32 | 1.32 | 1.40 |
1 | 27/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 17:45 | Riga | Sparta Praha | 1.47 | 1.32 | 1.35 | 1.40 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Brazil | Copa Rio | 18:45 | América RJ | Cabofriense | 1.01 | 1.09 | 1.09 | 1.17 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Tunisia | Ligue 1 | 16:30 | Etoile du Sahel | AS Gabès | 1.00 | 1.09 | 1.23 | 1.17 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Paraguay | Division Intermedia | 19:30 | Deportivo Santaní | Sportivo Carapeguá | 1.19 | 1.12 | 1.19 | 1.20 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Tunisia | Ligue 1 | 16:30 | Stade Tunisien | ES Métlaoui | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1.22 | 1.17 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Thailand | Thai League Two | 13:00 | Pattaya United | Nakhon Si Thammarat | 3.57 | 1.23 | 1.30 | 1.30 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 19:00 | Arda | Raków Częstochowa | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1.25 | 1.17 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa League | 19:30 | FCSB | Aberdeen | 2.38 | 1.33 | 1.37 | 1.40 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Vietnam | V-League | 12:00 | Da Nang | Ninh Bình | 1.27 | 1.05 | 1.10 | 1.11 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Czech Republic | U19 League | 12:30 | FC Fastav Zlin U19 | Slavia Prague U19 | 1.00 | 1.96 | 2.17 | 2.02 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Czech Republic | Czech Cup | 16:00 | Sokol Lanžhot | Hanácká | 1.00 | 1.61 | 1.85 | 1.67 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa League | 16:00 | KuPS | FC Midtjylland | 1.01 | 1.47 | 1.33 | 1.53 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 19:45 | Dinamo City | Jagiellonia Białystok | 1.09 | 1.27 | 1.45 | 1.33 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Romania | Romania Cup | 15:30 | CSM Satu Mare | CSM Slatina | 25.00 | 1.35 | 1.16 | 1.40 |
1 | 27/08/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 17:45 | Qarabağ | Ferencvárosi | 1.06 | 1.39 | 1.59 | 1.44 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 20:00 | FSV Mainz 05 | Rosenborg | 1.04 | 1.52 | 1.82 | 1.57 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Japan | Emperor Cup | 10:30 | Nagoya Grampus | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 1.05 | 1.18 | 1.11 | 1.22 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Thailand | Thai League Two | 12:00 | Nakhon Pathom | Chainat Hornbill | 1.09 | 1.10 | 1.19 | 1.14 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Venezuela | Copa Venezuela | 01:00 | Deportivo La Guaira | Caracas | 1.00 | 1.18 | 1.16 | 1.22 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 18:00 | Beşiktaş | Lausanne Sport | 2.70 | 1.64 | 1.49 | 1.67 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Colombia | Copa Betplay | 21:00 | Fortaleza CEIF | Independiente Medellín | 1.00 | 1.11 | 1.22 | 1.13 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 20:00 | Shamrock Rovers | Santa Clara | 1.03 | 1.15 | 1.20 | 1.17 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Austria | Austrian Cup | 19:30 | SV Horn | LASK Linz | 1.00 | 1.72 | 1.27 | 1.73 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Colombia | Copa Betplay | 00:30 | Atlético Bucaramanga | América de Cali | 1.08 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.17 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa League | 19:00 | FC Utrecht | Zrinjski | 2.00 | 1.43 | 1.32 | 1.44 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Vietnam | V-League | 12:00 | Hải Phòng | Sông Lam Nghệ An | 5.00 | 1.25 | 1.39 | 1.25 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | South Africa | Premier League | 18:30 | Golden Arrows | Magesi | 1.00 | 1.11 | 1.19 | 1.11 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Ecuador | Primera B | 21:30 | San Antonio | Independiente Juniors | 1.16 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.12 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Vietnam | V-League | 13:15 | Công an TP.Hồ Chí Minh | Hoang Anh Gia Lai | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.23 | 1.25 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Portugal | Liga Revelacao U23 | 17:00 | Estrela U23 | Portimonense U23 | 1.11 | 1.35 | 1.39 | 1.34 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Japan | Emperor Cup | 10:30 | Machida Zelvia | Kashima Antlers | 1.09 | 1.23 | 1.30 | 1.22 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Tunisia | Ligue 1 | 16:30 | Olympique Béja | Kairouan | 1.00 | 1.09 | 1.14 | 1.08 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Ecuador | Primera B | 21:30 | Guayaquil City | Leones del Norte | 1.15 | 1.16 | 1.11 | 1.12 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | El Salvador | Primera Division | 23:00 | Municipal Limeño | Isidro Metapán | 1.11 | 1.22 | 1.25 | 1.18 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Vietnam | V-League | 13:15 | Công An Nhân Dân | Hà Nội | 1.19 | 1.45 | 1.41 | 1.41 |
1 | 27/08/2025 | Spain | La Liga | 20:00 | Celta de Vigo | Real Betis | 1.08 | 1.49 | 1.33 | 1.44 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Brazil | Copa do Brasil | 23:30 | Atlético Mineiro | Cruzeiro | 1.01 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.13 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 18:30 | Universitatea Craiova | İstanbul Başakşehir | 1.02 | 1.45 | 1.37 | 1.40 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | England | Carabao Cup | 19:45 | Oxford United | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1.04 | 1.56 | 1.59 | 1.50 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Poland | 3. Liga - Group 1 | 16:00 | Swit | Bełchatów | 1.75 | 1.69 | 1.72 | 1.61 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | South Africa | Premier League | 18:30 | Sekhukhune United | AmaZulu | 1.27 | 1.23 | 1.12 | 1.14 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Poland | 3. Liga - Group 1 | 17:00 | Wikielec | Olimpia Elbląg | 1.67 | 1.54 | 1.15 | 1.44 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Lithuania | A Lyga | 17:00 | Kauno Žalgiris | Hegelmann Litauen | 1.79 | 1.61 | 1.45 | 1.50 |
1 | 27/08/2025 | Europe | Europa League | 17:30 | AEK Larnaca | Brann | 1.03 | 1.45 | 1.52 | 1.33 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Colombia | Copa Betplay | 22:00 | Alianza Petrolera | Santa Fe | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.18 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Tunisia | Ligue 1 | 16:30 | ES Tunis | AS Slimane | 1.02 | 1.59 | 1.37 | 1.42 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Thailand | Thai League Two | 12:00 | Pattani | Police Tero FC | 1.00 | 1.39 | 1.52 | 1.20 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Israel | State Cup | 17:30 | MS Jerusalem | Tzeirey Tira | 20.00 | 1.52 | 1.56 | 1.33 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Brazil | Copa do Brasil | 01:30 | Athletico PR | Corinthians | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.28 | 1.11 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Iceland | 1. Deild Women | 19:00 | HK W | Fylkir W | 1.92 | 1.85 | 1.82 | 1.60 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Iceland | 1. Deild Women | 19:00 | KR W | Haukar W | 3.45 | 2.17 | 1.92 | 1.91 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Malaysia | Super League | 13:15 | Kuala Lumpur City FC | PDRM | 1.41 | 1.67 | 1.52 | 1.40 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Portugal | Liga Revelacao U23 | 16:00 | Famalicão U23 | Rio Ave U23 | 1.47 | 1.64 | 1.33 | 1.36 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Colombia | Copa Betplay | 02:30 | Atlético Nacional | Deportes Quindío | 1.00 | 1.85 | 1.43 | 1.57 |
1 | 27/08/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 20:00 | Club Brugge | Rangers | 3.57 | 1.96 | 1.52 | 1.67 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Czech Republic | Czech Cup | 16:30 | Petřín Plzeň | Motorlet Praha | 1.05 | 1.82 | 1.96 | 1.50 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Thailand | Thai League Two | 13:00 | Trat | Chanthaburi | 1.05 | 1.67 | 1.56 | 1.33 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Brazil | Copa do Brasil | 23:30 | Bahia | Fluminense | 3.57 | 1.56 | 1.27 | 1.17 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Czech Republic | Czech Cup | 16:30 | Hlinsko | Trutnov | 3.70 | 2.00 | 2.04 | 1.60 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Czech Republic | Czech Cup | 16:30 | Velke Hamry | Dukla Praha | 1.72 | 2.33 | 1.75 | 1.91 |
1 | 27/08/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 20:00 | FC København | Basel | 2.94 | 1.92 | 1.64 | 1.50 |
1 | 27/08/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 20:00 | Benfica | Fenerbahçe | 1.35 | 1.79 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Thailand | Thai League Two | 12:00 | Khonkaen United | Bangkok | 1.85 | 1.89 | 1.47 | 1.39 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Faroe Islands | 1. Deild | 19:00 | B71 | EB / Streymur II | 1.39 | 2.56 | 3.13 | 1.95 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Slovenia | Slovenian Cup | 16:00 | Brežice | Rogaška | 1.08 | 2.44 | 1.56 | 1.57 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Kazakhstan | Premier League | 16:00 | Astana | Kaisar | 16.67 | 2.78 | 2.08 | 1.86 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa League | 19:00 | Young Boys | Slovan Bratislava | 5.56 | 2.56 | 1.75 | 1.53 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Iceland | 4. Deild | 20:15 | Álftanes | Kría | 2.56 | 2.70 | 2.86 | 1.65 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Czech Republic | Czech Cup | 16:30 | Bospor Bohumín | Karviná | 2.33 | 3.57 | 2.50 | 2.20 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Austria | Regionalliga: Mitte | 18:00 | Weiz | Lafnitz | 1.92 | 4.00 | 2.22 | 2.06 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Austria | Austrian Cup | 17:00 | Oedt | WSG Tirol | 1.00 | 4.55 | 4.76 | 2.00 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Czech Republic | Czech Cup | 16:30 | Jiskra Domažlice | Písek | 1.05 | 5.26 | 4.17 | 1.44 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Malaysia | Super League | 10:00 | Johor Darul Ta'zim | 1.18 | 7.69 | 6.25 | 3.30 |