Poisson Distribution Under 1.5 Goals Odds For Football Betting & Trading
Welcome to the Poisson Distribution Under 1.5 Goals Odds for football betting & trading. Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events occur with a known constant mean rate and independently of the time since the last event. Poisson distribution has been successfully used in models to predict football scores probabilities and pricing up matches. Learn more about Poisson here.
We provide you with 3 Poisson Distribution Models for Football Betting & Trading
Usually, Poisson Distribution models are calculated on the current season’s stats only. We give you more insight by preparing 3 separate models:
- Short Term Model*– calculated on stats from current season’s only
- Medium Term Model – based on stats from the last 20 matches.
- Long Term Model – covering stats from the last 50 matches.
All stats are taken from single competitions only, e.g. for Premier League fixtures, we use only matches from the Premier League. Feel free to browse the Poisson stats below. The upcoming matches are available for FTT & PRO members only.
* The short term model needs at least 10 matches of the new season for more reliable odds predictions. At the beginning of the seasons, the CS fields may be empty.
How to use Poisson Distribution odds for football betting & trading?
We calculate all the odds for you, so you don’t need to do any calculations. The 3 Poisson models will give you 3 separate prices for a given outcome.
Let’s take, for example, the over 2.5 goals market and the following figures:
- CS – 1.6
- L20 – 1.7
- L50 – 1.55
Current Over 2.5 goals odds are 1.5.
Looking at the 3 odds figures above, we can quickly state that the 1.5 odds seem to be a poor value for this match as the calculated/fair odds for the 3 given models are significantly higher.
It’s worth noting that the current season’s odds will be more accurate after more matches are played. Therefore, you may want to consider them once there are 10 league game weeks played or so.
Ideally, you would like to find matches with all 3 odds lower than the current available price. However, once you find such matches, you may wish to analyse them in more detail to determine whether your shortlisted picks represent value or try learning about other important reasons for the odds to be suspiciously higher than they should be.
Poisson Distribution Under 1.5 Goals Odds
You are browsing past 2 days matches stats. Current (Today's and 2 days in advance) statistics are available for FTT & PRO members only!
Learn more about our subscription options and subscribe now!M | Date | Country | Competition | KO | Home | Away | CS | L20 | L50 | odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M | Date | Country | Competition | KO | Home | Away | CS | L20 | L50 | odds |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Finland | Kakkonen | 17:00 | SJK Akatemia II | VPS II | 12.50 | 5.88 | 7.69 | 11.00 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | Africa | WC Qualification Africa | 14:00 | Chad | Ghana | 10.00 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 4.50 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Finland | Kakkonen | 16:30 | MYPA | PEPO | 11.11 | 5.26 | 14.29 | 8.00 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | Africa | WC Qualification Africa | 20:00 | Algeria | Botswana | 11.11 | 1.47 | 1.47 | 3.50 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | Africa | WC Qualification Africa | 20:00 | Cameroon | Eswatini | 11.11 | 1.49 | 1.49 | 3.50 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Turkey | Turkish Cup | 18:00 | Ankaragücü | Karabük İdman Yurdu | 2.70 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 4.50 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | Europe | WC Qualification Europe | 19:45 | Netherlands | Poland | 0.00 | 3.57 | 3.57 | 5.50 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Sweden | Division 2: Norrland | 18:00 | Täfteå | 2.00 | 2.50 | 2.70 | 4.33 | |
0 | 04/09/2025 | World | Friendly International U19 | 15:00 | North Macedonia U19 | Bosnia & Herzegovina U19 | 20.00 | 1.72 | 1.72 | 3.50 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | Africa | WC Qualification Africa | 20:00 | Tunisia | Liberia | 1.27 | 1.79 | 1.79 | 3.50 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | Finland | Kakkonen | 17:00 | Kiffen | HPS | 4.17 | 3.85 | 4.35 | 5.50 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | El Salvador | Primera Division | 02:00 | Alianza | Municipal Limeño | 2.50 | 1.69 | 2.44 | 3.30 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | Europe | WC Qualification Europe | 15:00 | Kazakhstan | Wales | 1.79 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 3.00 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Venezuela | Segunda Division | 21:00 | Aragua | Petare | 1.25 | 1.61 | 1.92 | 3.20 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | El Salvador | Primera Division | 22:00 | Fuerte San Francisco | 1.20 | 1.39 | 1.75 | 2.88 | |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Finland | Kakkonen | 16:00 | GrIFK | VJS | 10.00 | 5.56 | 6.67 | 7.00 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | England | National League | 19:45 | Brackley Town | Carlisle United | 1.61 | 2.33 | 2.44 | 3.75 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Turkey | Turkish Cup | 13:00 | Yozgat Bld Bozokspor | Fatsa Belediyespor | 2.63 | 2.13 | 2.63 | 3.50 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | Colombia | Copa Betplay | 01:30 | Independiente Medellín | Fortaleza CEIF | 1.37 | 2.44 | 2.44 | 3.75 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | Africa | WC Qualification Africa | 17:00 | Angola | Libya | 1.89 | 1.47 | 1.47 | 2.63 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Argentina | Reserve League | 19:00 | Barracas Central Res. | Sarmiento Res. | 2.04 | 1.67 | 2.38 | 2.79 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | World | WC Qualification South America | 00:30 | Argentina | Venezuela | 9.09 | 2.63 | 2.63 | 3.75 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | Africa | WC Qualification Africa | 17:00 | Mauritius | Cape Verde Islands | 2.44 | 1.54 | 1.54 | 2.63 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Venezuela | Segunda Division | 20:30 | Atlético El Vigía | 1.82 | 2.56 | 3.57 | 3.60 | |
0 | 04/09/2025 | World | WC Qualification South America | 00:30 | Colombia | Bolivia | 20.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 6.00 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | El Salvador | Primera Division | 22:00 | Cacahuatique | FAS | 50.00 | 2.44 | 2.63 | 3.30 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Venezuela | Segunda Division | 21:00 | Angostura | Bolívar | 1.89 | 2.04 | 2.44 | 2.88 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Venezuela | Segunda Division | 21:00 | Ureña | Titanes | 3.03 | 2.78 | 3.70 | 3.60 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Guatemala | Liga Nacional | 22:00 | Cobán Imperial | Comunicaciones | 2.33 | 2.44 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | World | Friendly International | 16:00 | Saudi Arabia | North Macedonia | 1.00 | 1.45 | 1.49 | 2.25 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | El Salvador | Primera Division | 22:30 | CD Platense | Isidro Metapán | 2.27 | 2.00 | 2.70 | 2.75 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | Ecuador | Primera B | 21:30 | Gualaceo | Guayaquil City | 2.50 | 1.92 | 2.70 | 2.57 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | World | WC Qualification South America | 00:30 | Paraguay | Ecuador | 1.12 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.83 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | Africa | WC Qualification Africa | 17:00 | Madagascar | Central African Republic | 10.00 | 2.33 | 2.33 | 2.75 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | England | National League | 19:45 | Hartlepool United | Boston United | 3.33 | 4.00 | 3.23 | 4.33 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Brazil | Paulista U20 | 19:00 | Itapirense U20 | Bragantino U20 | 3.85 | 5.26 | 2.86 | 5.50 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Colombia | Copa Betplay | 01:00 | Real Cundinamarca | Deportivo Pereira | 1.15 | 2.78 | 3.23 | 3.00 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | Sweden | Division 2: Ostra Gotaland | 18:00 | IFK Hässleholm | 6.67 | 4.35 | 5.88 | 4.50 | |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Ecuador | Primera B | 21:30 | Independiente Juniors | Leones del Norte | 1.64 | 2.00 | 2.22 | 2.13 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Russia | FNL | 16:00 | Sokol Saratov | KAMAZ | 2.08 | 1.56 | 1.96 | 1.62 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | Iran | Azadegan League | 16:30 | Ario Eslamshahr | Mes Soongoun | 9.09 | 2.00 | 1.49 | 2.05 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | England | National League | 19:45 | Halifax Town | Woking | 12.50 | 3.23 | 2.33 | 3.25 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Argentina | Reserve League | 23:00 | Atlético Tucumán Res. | Central Córdoba SdE Res. | 2.50 | 3.03 | 3.33 | 3.00 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Sweden | Division 2: Ostra Gotaland | 18:30 | Högaborg | Solvesborg | 5.56 | 5.56 | 5.88 | 5.50 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Qatar | QSL Cup | 18:30 | Al Shamal SC | Umm-Salal SC | 7.69 | 5.26 | 5.88 | 5.20 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | World | WC Qualification Concacaf | 22:30 | Suriname | Panama | 1.69 | 3.33 | 3.33 | 3.25 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | Finland | Kakkonen | 16:00 | PuiU Helsinki | Honka | 4.76 | 7.14 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Colombia | Copa Betplay | 21:00 | Envigado | Millonarios | 5.00 | 2.56 | 2.70 | 2.38 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Japan | Ybc Levain Cup | 11:00 | Shonan Bellmare | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 1.89 | 3.70 | 3.33 | 3.50 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Venezuela | Segunda Division | 21:00 | Mineros de Guayana | Marítimo | 1.82 | 2.86 | 3.57 | 2.60 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Poland | 2. Liga East | 16:00 | Świt Skolwin | Sokół Kleczew | 3.45 | 4.17 | 4.17 | 3.80 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Venezuela | Segunda Division | 20:30 | Trujillanos | Héroes de Falcón | 2.78 | 4.17 | 2.86 | 3.80 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | England | FA Cup | 19:45 | Ashton United | Hallam | 1.12 | 5.88 | 7.14 | 5.50 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | Brazil | Copa do Nordeste | 01:30 | Confiança | Bahia | 1.43 | 3.13 | 4.00 | 2.75 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Colombia | Copa Betplay | 23:15 | América de Cali | Atlético Bucaramanga | 5.56 | 3.03 | 2.17 | 2.63 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Russia | FNL | 18:00 | Arsenal Tula | SKA Khabarovsk | 3.45 | 1.85 | 2.38 | 1.44 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | Guatemala | Liga Nacional | 02:00 | Municipal | Mixco | 2.00 | 3.57 | 3.23 | 3.08 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | USA | USL Championship | 00:30 | Hartford Athletic | Indy Eleven | 9.09 | 5.00 | 5.88 | 4.50 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Switzerland | 1.Liga Classic | 19:00 | Freienbach | Höngg | 3.13 | 4.55 | 3.70 | 4.00 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | Ecuador | Primera B | 01:00 | Vargas Torres | 5.00 | 4.55 | 3.57 | 3.92 | |
0 | 03/09/2025 | World | Friendly International | 16:15 | Qatar | Bahrain | 1.49 | 3.23 | 3.57 | 2.50 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Finland | Kakkonen | 17:00 | JBK | GBK | 4.00 | 5.26 | 7.14 | 4.50 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | England | National League | 19:45 | Sutton United | Boreham Wood | 4.76 | 4.76 | 5.00 | 4.00 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Russia | FNL | 16:30 | Chayka | Rotor Volgograd | 3.57 | 2.33 | 3.45 | 1.53 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | Denmark | Landspokal Cup | 17:30 | Horsens | Viborg FF | 2.44 | 4.55 | 3.70 | 3.75 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | Colombia | Copa Betplay | 01:45 | Deportes Quindío | Atlético Nacional | 16.67 | 4.55 | 3.23 | 3.50 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Russia | FNL | 17:00 | Torpedo Moskva | Ufa | 2.27 | 2.70 | 2.70 | 1.51 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Ukraine | Second League: Group A | 12:00 | Hirnyk-Sport | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 12.50 | 4.35 | 2.86 | 2.87 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | Europe | WC Qualification Europe | 17:00 | Lithuania | Malta | 100.00 | 4.76 | 4.76 | 2.50 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Argentina | Reserve League | 19:00 | Vélez Sársfield Res. | Tigre Res. | 3.70 | 3.85 | 3.13 | 1.48 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Argentina | Reserve League | 19:00 | Estudiantes La Plata Res | Gimnasia Esgrima Res. | 6.67 | 5.88 | 5.26 | 3.30 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | World | WC Qualification South America | 00:30 | Uruguay | Peru | 1.85 | 5.26 | 5.26 | 2.63 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | Africa | WC Qualification Africa | 20:00 | Mali | Comoros | 5.26 | 5.56 | 5.56 | 2.75 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Russia | FNL | 15:30 | Volga Ulyanovsk | Chernomorets | 4.55 | 4.35 | 3.70 | 1.48 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | Russia | FNL | 15:00 | Chelyabinsk | Fakel | 1.72 | 4.76 | 5.56 | 1.51 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Sweden | Division 2: Norrland | 18:00 | Boden | Bergnasets | 5.56 | 8.33 | 6.25 | 5.00 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | Africa | WC Qualification Africa | 17:00 | Guinea-Bissau | Sierra Leone | 1.45 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 2.50 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Czech Republic | 2. Liga FNL | 16:00 | Banik Ostrava B | Hanácká | 25.00 | 10.00 | 9.09 | 5.50 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | USA | USL League One | 00:00 | Westchester SC | Richmond Kickers | 11.11 | 10.00 | 12.50 | 5.50 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | England | National League | 19:45 | Truro City | Aldershot Town | 14.29 | 9.09 | 6.67 | 4.50 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Venezuela | Segunda Division | 22:30 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | Real Frontera | 3.70 | 8.33 | 7.69 | 3.60 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | England | National League | 19:45 | Gateshead | Altrincham | 11.11 | 11.11 | 6.67 | 5.50 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Scotland | Football League - Lowland League | 19:45 | Gala Fairydean Rovers | Broxburn Athletic | 14.29 | 11.11 | 12.50 | 5.50 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | Costa Rica | Liga de Ascenso | 01:00 | Escorpiones Belén | Cariari Pococí | 6.67 | 11.11 | 12.50 | 5.20 |
0 | 04/09/2025 | Europe | WC Qualification Europe | 17:00 | Georgia | Turkey | 1.15 | 50.00 | 50.00 | 3.75 |
0 | 03/09/2025 | Finland | Kakkonen | 17:00 | OsPa | TP-47 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 50.00 | 9.00 |