Poisson Distribution Over 3.5 Goals Odds For Football Betting & Trading
Welcome to the Poisson Distribution Over 3.5 Goals Odds for football betting & trading. Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events occur with a known constant mean rate and independently of the time since the last event. Poisson distribution has been successfully used in models to predict football scores probabilities and pricing up matches. Learn more about Poisson here.
We provide you with 3 Poisson Distribution Models for Football Betting & Trading
Usually, Poisson Distribution models are calculated on the current season’s stats only. We give you more insight by preparing 3 separate models:
- Short Term Model*– calculated on stats from current season’s only
- Medium Term Model – based on stats from the last 20 matches.
- Long Term Model – covering stats from the last 50 matches.
All stats are taken from single competitions only, e.g. for Premier League fixtures, we use only matches from the Premier League. Feel free to browse the Poisson stats below. The upcoming matches are available for FTT & PRO members only.
* The short term model needs at least 10 matches of the new season for more reliable odds predictions. At the beginning of the seasons, the CS fields may be empty.
How to use Poisson Distribution odds for football betting & trading?
We calculate all the odds for you, so you don’t need to do any calculations. The 3 Poisson models will give you 3 separate prices for a given outcome.
Let’s take, for example, the over 2.5 goals market and the following figures:
- CS – 1.6
- L20 – 1.7
- L50 – 1.55
Current Over 2.5 goals odds are 1.5.
Looking at the 3 odds figures above, we can quickly state that the 1.5 odds seem to be a poor value for this match as the calculated/fair odds for the 3 given models are significantly higher.
It’s worth noting that the current season’s odds will be more accurate after more matches are played. Therefore, you may want to consider them once there are 10 league game weeks played or so.
Ideally, you would like to find matches with all 3 odds lower than the current available price. However, once you find such matches, you may wish to analyse them in more detail to determine whether your shortlisted picks represent value or try learning about other important reasons for the odds to be suspiciously higher than they should be.
Poisson Distribution Over 3.5 Goals Odds
You are browsing past 2 days matches stats. Current (Today's and 2 days in advance) statistics are available for FTT & PRO members only!
Learn more about our subscription options and subscribe now!M | Date | Country | Competition | KO | Home | Away | CS | L20 | L50 | odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M | Date | Country | Competition | KO | Home | Away | CS | L20 | L50 | odds |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Brazil | Serie B | 01:30 | Athletic Club | Coritiba | 11.11 | 3.33 | 2.86 | 6.50 |
0 | 22/07/2025 | Colombia | Liga BetPlay | 22:00 | Alianza Petrolera | Deportes Tolima | 2.86 | 2.78 | 2.78 | 5.00 |
0 | 22/07/2025 | Brazil | Serie B | 00:00 | Athletico PR | Ferroviária | 6.25 | 3.03 | 5.00 | 5.00 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Colombia | Liga BetPlay | 22:00 | Llaneros | Boyacá Chicó | 6.67 | 3.03 | 3.23 | 5.00 |
1 | 23/07/2025 | Brazil | Serie A | 23:00 | Fluminense | Palmeiras | 3.85 | 4.55 | 4.76 | 6.50 |
0 | 22/07/2025 | Chile | Primera B | 01:30 | Santiago Wanderers | Unión San Felipe | 1.96 | 2.00 | 3.45 | 3.35 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Brazil | Copa Paulista | 00:00 | AEA | Monte Azul | 2.56 | 4.17 | 3.03 | 5.50 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Zimbabwe | Premier Soccer League | 14:00 | TelOne | Simba Bhora | 2.56 | 4.35 | 5.56 | 5.50 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Europe | Euro Women | 20:00 | Germany W | Spain W | 7.14 | 1.49 | 1.49 | 2.63 |
0 | 22/07/2025 | Scotland | League Cup | 19:45 | East Fife | Brora Rangers | 20.00 | 1.52 | 1.39 | 2.63 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Brazil | Brasileiro U20 | 19:00 | Atletico-PR U20 | Atlético GO U20 | 1.92 | 1.32 | 1.45 | 2.20 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Northern Ireland | Championship Women | 20:00 | Sion Swifts W | 1.11 | 1.10 | 1.15 | 1.95 | |
0 | 22/07/2025 | Lithuania | 1. Lyga | 17:00 | FA Šiauliai II | Neptūną Klaipėda | 1.75 | 1.39 | 1.75 | 2.20 |
0 | 22/07/2025 | Brazil | Serie B | 23:00 | Operário PR | Atlético GO | 6.67 | 5.26 | 6.25 | 6.00 |
1 | 23/07/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 19:00 | The New Saints | Differdange 03 | 7.14 | 3.03 | 2.33 | 3.75 |
0 | 22/07/2025 | Korea Republic | K-League 1 | 11:30 | Anyang | Daegu | 2.56 | 2.56 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Korea Republic | K-League 1 | 11:30 | Ulsan HD | Daejeon Citizen | 2.17 | 2.38 | 2.08 | 3.00 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Brazil | Gaucho 2 | 23:30 | Bage | Passo Fundo | 10.00 | 5.00 | 7.14 | 5.50 |
1 | 22/07/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 17:00 | Noah | Ferencvárosi | 100.00 | 3.33 | 2.63 | 3.75 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Venezuela | Primera Division | 23:30 | Estudiantes Mérida | UCV | 2.56 | 2.63 | 4.55 | 3.03 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Lithuania | 1. Lyga | 16:00 | Žalgiris II | Be1 NFA | 1.52 | 1.82 | 2.78 | 2.21 |
1 | 23/07/2025 | Brazil | Serie A | 23:30 | Corinthians | Cruzeiro | 4.76 | 5.00 | 5.26 | 5.00 |
0 | 22/07/2025 | Europe | Euro Women | 20:00 | England W | Italy W | 6.67 | 3.03 | 3.03 | 3.00 |
0 | 22/07/2025 | Bolivia | Liga De Futbol Prof | 00:00 | Real Tomayapo | Nacional Potosí | 7.14 | 3.03 | 4.17 | 3.00 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Brazil | Brasileiro U20 | 19:00 | Corinthians U20 | Juventude U20 | 3.33 | 3.03 | 4.55 | 3.00 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Lithuania | 1. Lyga | 16:00 | Jonava | TransINVEST Vilnius | 3.13 | 2.70 | 2.04 | 2.60 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Brazil | Gaucho 2 | 19:00 | Gaucho | Brasil Farroupilha | 2.78 | 4.35 | 5.26 | 4.20 |
0 | 22/07/2025 | Mexico | Liga Mx Women | 02:00 | Atlético San Luis W | Monterrey W | 0.00 | 2.50 | 2.86 | 2.20 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Brazil | Brasileiro U20 | 19:00 | Atletico Mineiro U20 | Bragantino U20 | 4.35 | 2.86 | 3.13 | 2.55 |
0 | 22/07/2025 | Ecuador | Liga Pro | 01:00 | Libertad | Manta | 2.63 | 3.13 | 5.26 | 2.75 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | China PR | FA Cup | 12:35 | Qingdao Hainiu | Chengdu Rongcheng | 3.70 | 3.45 | 4.17 | 3.03 |
0 | 22/07/2025 | Scotland | League Cup | 19:45 | Motherwell | Greenock Morton | 1.39 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.50 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | South America | Copa Sudamericana | 01:30 | América de Cali | Bahia | 33.33 | 5.56 | 4.17 | 5.00 |
0 | 22/07/2025 | South America | Copa Sudamericana | 23:00 | Cerro Largo | Central Cordoba SdE | 2.86 | 7.14 | 6.67 | 6.50 |
1 | 22/07/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 19:30 | Lech Poznań | Breidablik | 7.69 | 3.03 | 2.94 | 2.38 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Finland | Ykkonen | 16:30 | Klubi-04 | SalPa | 2.33 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 1.83 |
0 | 22/07/2025 | Argentina | Primera C | 19:30 | Atlas | Sportivo Barracas | 2.38 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 5.50 |
0 | 22/07/2025 | Lithuania | 1. Lyga | 16:00 | Panevėžys II | Tauras | 3.70 | 2.86 | 3.23 | 2.08 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Brazil | Brasileiro U20 | 19:00 | Palmeiras U20 | Fluminense U20 | 1.89 | 3.45 | 2.86 | 2.60 |
0 | 22/07/2025 | Korea Republic | K-League 1 | 11:30 | Gwangju | Sangju Sangmu | 2.78 | 4.35 | 4.17 | 3.40 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Australia | Ffa Cup | 10:30 | South Hobart | South Melbourne | 1.47 | 2.63 | 2.33 | 1.67 |
0 | 22/07/2025 | Scotland | League Cup | 19:45 | Arbroath | Annan Athletic | 0.00 | 3.70 | 5.00 | 2.63 |
1 | 22/07/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 18:00 | Rīgas FS | Malmö FF | 100.00 | 4.55 | 3.45 | 3.40 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Korea Republic | K-League 1 | 11:30 | Jeonbuk Motors | Gangwon | 3.85 | 4.17 | 4.76 | 3.00 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Brazil | Serie B | 23:00 | Chapecoense | Volta Redonda | 7.14 | 5.56 | 3.13 | 4.33 |
1 | 22/07/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 19:15 | Slovan Bratislava | Zrinjski | 2.33 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 2.75 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | World | Club Friendlies 1 | 18:30 | Galatasaray | Cagliari | 3.13 | 3.57 | 3.70 | 2.30 |
0 | 22/07/2025 | Korea Republic | K-League 1 | 11:30 | Pohang Steelers | Suwon | 7.14 | 4.76 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Colombia | Liga BetPlay | 00:10 | Junior FC | Unión Magdalena | 7.14 | 5.56 | 3.03 | 4.00 |
0 | 22/07/2025 | Scotland | League Cup | 19:45 | Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic | Dundee | 0.00 | 3.70 | 4.00 | 2.10 |
0 | 22/07/2025 | Lithuania | 1. Lyga | 17:00 | Kauno Žalgiris II | Atmosfera | 6.25 | 4.35 | 2.56 | 2.75 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Brazil | Brasileiro U20 | 19:00 | Internacional U20 | Santos U20 | 3.13 | 4.55 | 4.55 | 2.75 |
0 | 22/07/2025 | Lithuania | 1. Lyga | 17:00 | Minija | Babrungas | 2.27 | 4.55 | 5.00 | 2.55 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Scotland | League Cup | 19:15 | Montrose | Airdrieonians | 0.00 | 4.55 | 3.45 | 2.50 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Brazil | Serie B | 23:00 | Novorizontino | Goiás | 6.67 | 9.09 | 7.69 | 7.00 |
0 | 22/07/2025 | Argentina | Primera C | 19:30 | Claypole | Mercedes | 2.94 | 6.67 | 5.26 | 4.50 |
0 | 22/07/2025 | Colombia | Torneo Betplay | 02:10 | Cúcuta Deportivo | 5.26 | 7.14 | 8.33 | 4.50 | |
1 | 23/07/2025 | Brazil | Serie A | 23:00 | Ceará | Mirassol | 10.00 | 7.69 | 5.56 | 5.00 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Brazil | Brasileiro U20 | 19:00 | Sao Paulo U20 | América Mineiro U20 | 6.25 | 5.88 | 3.70 | 2.66 |
0 | 22/07/2025 | Scotland | League Cup | 19:45 | Kelty Hearts | Kilmarnock | 33.33 | 5.88 | 7.14 | 2.63 |
0 | 22/07/2025 | Colombia | Liga BetPlay | 00:10 | Santa Fe | Rionegro Águilas | 16.67 | 9.09 | 7.14 | 5.50 |
1 | 22/07/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 19:00 | Skendija 79 | FCSB | 1.56 | 8.33 | 8.33 | 4.33 |
1 | 22/07/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 16:00 | KuPS | Kairat | 100.00 | 9.09 | 6.67 | 4.33 |
0 | 22/07/2025 | Ecuador | Primera B | 21:30 | Cumbaya | Vargas Torres | 5.26 | 9.09 | 11.11 | 4.10 |
0 | 22/07/2025 | Scotland | League Cup | 19:45 | Clyde | Stenhousemuir | 1.79 | 8.33 | 7.14 | 3.25 |
1 | 22/07/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 18:00 | FC København | Drita | 20.00 | 7.14 | 8.33 | 2.00 |
0 | 22/07/2025 | Ecuador | Primera B | 21:30 | Chacaritas | 8.33 | 7.69 | 16.67 | 2.45 | |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Colombia | Liga BetPlay | 02:20 | Deportivo Pereira | Atlético Nacional | 11.11 | 9.09 | 5.56 | 3.40 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Brazil | Brasileiro U20 | 19:00 | Fortaleza U20 | Flamengo RJ U20 | 8.33 | 10.00 | 5.88 | 3.20 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Ecuador | Primera B | 21:30 | Leones del Norte | Guayaquil City | 25.00 | 20.00 | 8.33 | 6.00 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Brazil | Copa Paulista | 19:00 | Botafogo SP | Inter de Limeira | 50.00 | 20.00 | 14.29 | 4.50 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Korea Republic | K-League 1 | 11:30 | Jeju United | Seoul | 25.00 | 20.00 | 5.26 | 4.33 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Brazil | Serie B | 01:35 | Vila Nova | CRB | 14.29 | 25.00 | 5.88 | 5.50 |
0 | 23/07/2025 | Brazil | Gaucho 2 | 23:00 | Aimoré | Lajeadense | 16.67 | 25.00 | 16.67 | 5.50 |