Poisson Distribution Over 1.5 Goals Odds For Football Betting & Trading
Welcome to the Poisson Distribution Over 1.5 Goals Odds for football betting & trading. Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events occur with a known constant mean rate and independently of the time since the last event. Poisson distribution has been successfully used in models to predict football scores probabilities and pricing up matches. Learn more about Poisson here.
We provide you with 3 Poisson Distribution Models for Football Betting & Trading
Usually, Poisson Distribution models are calculated on the current season’s stats only. We give you more insight by preparing 3 separate models:
- Short Term Model*– calculated on stats from current season’s only
- Medium Term Model – based on stats from the last 20 matches.
- Long Term Model – covering stats from the last 50 matches.
All stats are taken from single competitions only, e.g. for Premier League fixtures, we use only matches from the Premier League. Feel free to browse the Poisson stats below. The upcoming matches are available for FTT & PRO members only.
* The short term model needs at least 10 matches of the new season for more reliable odds predictions. At the beginning of the seasons, the CS fields may be empty.
How to use Poisson Distribution odds for football betting & trading?
We calculate all the odds for you, so you don’t need to do any calculations. The 3 Poisson models will give you 3 separate prices for a given outcome.
Let’s take, for example, the over 2.5 goals market and the following figures:
- CS – 1.6
- L20 – 1.7
- L50 – 1.55
Current Over 2.5 goals odds are 1.5.
Looking at the 3 odds figures above, we can quickly state that the 1.5 odds seem to be a poor value for this match as the calculated/fair odds for the 3 given models are significantly higher.
It’s worth noting that the current season’s odds will be more accurate after more matches are played. Therefore, you may want to consider them once there are 10 league game weeks played or so.
Ideally, you would like to find matches with all 3 odds lower than the current available price. However, once you find such matches, you may wish to analyse them in more detail to determine whether your shortlisted picks represent value or try learning about other important reasons for the odds to be suspiciously higher than they should be.
Poisson Distribution Over 1.5 Goals Odds
You are browsing past 2 days matches stats. Current (Today's and 2 days in advance) statistics are available for FTT & PRO members only!
Learn more about our subscription options and subscribe now!M | Date | Country | Competition | KO | Home | Away | CS | L20 | L50 | odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M | Date | Country | Competition | KO | Home | Away | CS | L20 | L50 | odds |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Brazil | Serie B | 23:00 | Athletic Club | Atlético GO | 1.49 | 1.19 | 1.23 | 1.53 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Brazil | Serie C | 23:30 | Confiança | Anápolis | 1.08 | 1.19 | 1.39 | 1.50 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Argentina | Primera C | 19:30 | Berazategui | Central Córdoba | 1.59 | 1.35 | 1.64 | 1.57 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Brazil | Serie B | 01:30 | Cuiabá | Volta Redonda | 1.45 | 1.32 | 1.19 | 1.50 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Montenegro | First League | 19:00 | Arsenal Tivat | Jedinstvo | 1.37 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.43 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Israel | Toto Cup Ligat Leumit | 18:00 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | Ironi Modi'in | 1.01 | 1.10 | 1.16 | 1.23 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Peru | Primera Division | 19:00 | UTC Cajamarca | Cusco FC | 1.37 | 1.18 | 1.35 | 1.30 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Colombia | Torneo Betplay | 02:10 | Real Cartagena | Real Soacha | 1.08 | 1.23 | 1.32 | 1.35 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Israel | Toto Cup Ligat Leumit | 18:00 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | Hapoel Kfar Shalem | 1.08 | 1.18 | 1.22 | 1.28 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Australia | Npl Queensland | 10:45 | SC Wanderers | Eastern Suburbs Brisbane | 1.19 | 1.05 | 1.12 | 1.14 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Brazil | Paulista U20 | 19:00 | Velo Clube U20 | Mirassol U20 | 1.72 | 1.18 | 1.15 | 1.26 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Israel | Toto Cup Ligat Leumit | 16:00 | Hapoel Hadera | Hapoel Acre | 1.22 | 1.23 | 1.28 | 1.30 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Republic of Ireland | First Division | 17:00 | Treaty United | Kerry | 1.11 | 1.15 | 1.25 | 1.22 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Iceland | Pepsideild | 20:15 | ÍA | Valur | 1.14 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.14 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Estonia | Esiliiga B | 17:00 | Paide U21 | Laanemaa Haapsalu | 1.08 | 1.04 | 1.06 | 1.07 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Brazil | Copa Paulista | 23:45 | São Bento | Rio Branco SP | 50.00 | 1.33 | 1.39 | 1.36 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Israel | Toto Cup Ligat Al | 18:00 | Maccabi Netanya | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 1.54 | 1.23 | 1.35 | 1.26 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Brazil | Serie D | 23:30 | Sampaio Corrêa | Manauara | 1.41 | 1.28 | 1.32 | 1.30 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Armenia | Premier League | 14:30 | Alashkert | Pyunik | 4.35 | 1.19 | 1.37 | 1.21 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Lithuania | A Lyga | 17:30 | Džiugas Telšiai | Hegelmann Litauen | 1.72 | 1.28 | 1.41 | 1.30 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Bolivia | Liga De Futbol Prof | 20:30 | Oriente Petrolero | Aurora | 1.19 | 1.15 | 1.47 | 1.17 |
1 | 04/08/2025 | Brazil | Serie A | 00:00 | Santos | Juventude | 1.35 | 1.19 | 1.32 | 1.21 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Bulgaria | Parva Liga | 19:15 | Botev Plovdiv | Arda | 7.14 | 1.39 | 1.72 | 1.40 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Mexico | Liga Mx Women | 00:00 | Atlético San Luis W | Juárez W | 0.00 | 1.19 | 1.25 | 1.20 |
1 | 05/08/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 18:00 | Malmö FF | FC København | 12.50 | 1.43 | 1.33 | 1.44 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Finland | Veikkausliiga | 16:00 | Ilves | Gnistan | 1.18 | 1.11 | 1.16 | 1.10 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Sweden | Ettan: South | 18:00 | Trollhättan | Ljungskile | 1.04 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.15 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Sweden | Ettan: South | 18:00 | Hässleholms IF | Ariana | 1.59 | 1.27 | 1.28 | 1.26 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Poland | 1. Liga | 18:00 | Tychy 71 | Wisła Kraków | 1.00 | 1.23 | 1.25 | 1.20 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Peru | Primera Division | 01:00 | Cienciano | Los Chankas | 1.15 | 1.23 | 1.27 | 1.20 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Mexico | Liga Mx Women | 02:00 | Santos Laguna W | Guadalajara W | 1.67 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.20 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Estonia | Meistriliiga | 17:00 | Tallinna Kalev | Vaprus | 1.09 | 1.22 | 1.52 | 1.19 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Chile | Primera B | 01:00 | Santiago Wanderers | San Marcos | 1.10 | 1.28 | 1.35 | 1.24 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Colombia | Torneo Betplay | 22:00 | Real San Andres | Bogotá | 1.35 | 1.32 | 1.49 | 1.28 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Bolivia | Liga De Futbol Prof | 22:30 | Always Ready | Nacional Potosí | 1.32 | 1.15 | 1.18 | 1.11 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Colombia | Torneo Betplay | 00:05 | Leones FC | Barranquilla | 1.25 | 1.37 | 1.30 | 1.33 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Ecuador | Liga Pro | 01:00 | Delfin | Vinotinto FC | 2.63 | 1.37 | 1.54 | 1.33 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Republic of Ireland | First Division | 17:00 | Athlone Town | UCD | 1.41 | 1.33 | 1.30 | 1.28 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Republic of Ireland | First Division | 17:00 | Cobh Ramblers | Wexford Youths | 1.41 | 1.25 | 1.27 | 1.20 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Israel | Toto Cup Ligat Leumit | 19:15 | Hapoel Afula | Hapoel Ra'anana | 0.00 | 1.35 | 1.39 | 1.30 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Canada | Premier League | 20:00 | HFX Wanderers | Vancouver FC | 1.27 | 1.23 | 1.33 | 1.18 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Faroe Islands | Meistaradeildin | 16:00 | Suduroy | HB | 1.05 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.09 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Sweden | Superettan | 18:00 | Umeå | Falkenberg | 1.28 | 1.23 | 1.16 | 1.17 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Finland | Kakkonen | 16:30 | VJS | PEPO | 1.08 | 1.14 | 1.16 | 1.07 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Sweden | Ettan: South | 18:00 | Skövde AIK | IFK Skovde | 1.02 | 1.23 | 1.16 | 1.15 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Peru | Primera Division | 21:00 | Sport Boys | ADT | 1.19 | 1.41 | 1.35 | 1.33 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Lithuania | A Lyga | 17:00 | Banga | FA Šiauliai | 1.67 | 1.30 | 1.39 | 1.21 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Colombia | Copa Betplay | 22:00 | Cúcuta Deportivo | Atlético Nacional | 1.49 | 1.39 | 1.41 | 1.30 |
1 | 05/08/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 19:00 | Skendija 79 | Qarabağ | 0.00 | 1.39 | 1.49 | 1.30 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Mexico | Liga Mx Women | 02:00 | Pachuca W | Toluca W | 1.67 | 1.20 | 1.15 | 1.10 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Colombia | Liga BetPlay | 02:30 | Rionegro Águilas | Fortaleza CEIF | 1.82 | 1.64 | 1.59 | 1.53 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Paraguay | Division 1 | 22:30 | Atlético Tembetary | General Caballero JLM | 1.52 | 1.61 | 1.54 | 1.50 |
1 | 04/08/2025 | Romania | Liga 1 | 17:00 | Unirea Slobozia | Otelul | 1.00 | 1.56 | 1.85 | 1.44 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Uzbekistan | Professional Football League | 16:00 | Pakhtakor | OKMK | 1.33 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.23 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Paraguay | Division 1 | 22:30 | Deportivo Recoleta | Guaraní | 1.35 | 1.49 | 1.23 | 1.36 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Republic of Ireland | First Division | 17:00 | Dundalk | Longford Town | 1.22 | 1.32 | 1.35 | 1.18 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Estonia | Esiliiga A | 17:00 | Elva | Tartu Welco | 1.14 | 1.28 | 1.25 | 1.14 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Lithuania | A Lyga | 18:00 | Žalgiris | Kauno Žalgiris | 2.44 | 1.41 | 1.33 | 1.26 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Chile | Primera Division | 23:00 | Universidad Chile | Cobresal | 1.16 | 1.35 | 1.28 | 1.18 |
1 | 05/08/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 19:45 | Rangers | Viktoria Plzeň | 2.63 | 1.45 | 1.32 | 1.28 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Canada | Premier League | 23:00 | Pacific | Cavalry | 1.43 | 1.49 | 1.49 | 1.30 |
1 | 05/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 19:45 | KÍ | Neman Grodno | 2.70 | 1.52 | 1.37 | 1.33 |
1 | 04/08/2025 | Sweden | Allsvenskan | 18:00 | IFK Göteborg | Degerfors | 1.14 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.21 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Peru | Primera Division | 21:00 | Melgar | Juan Pablo II College | 1.25 | 1.39 | 1.33 | 1.19 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Sweden | Ettan: North | 18:00 | Vasalund | Hammarby Talang | 1.27 | 1.41 | 1.35 | 1.20 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Africa | African Nations Championship | 15:00 | Niger | Guinea | 1.67 | 1.72 | 1.72 | 1.50 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Finland | Veikkausliiga | 17:00 | HJK | Inter Turku | 1.27 | 1.39 | 1.32 | 1.17 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Republic of Ireland | First Division | 17:00 | Finn Harps | Bray Wanderers | 1.37 | 1.49 | 1.52 | 1.25 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Mexico | Liga Mx Women | 00:00 | Pumas UNAM W | Cruz Azul W | 1.18 | 1.39 | 1.25 | 1.15 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Brazil | Serie C | 23:30 | Ituano | Londrina | 1.49 | 1.72 | 1.64 | 1.44 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Israel | Toto Cup Ligat Al | 17:45 | Ashdod | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 5.56 | 1.59 | 1.61 | 1.26 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Argentina | Primera C | 19:30 | Claypole | Defensores de Cambaceres | 1.33 | 1.96 | 1.59 | 1.62 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Paraguay | Division 1 | 20:00 | Sportivo Ameliano | Libertad | 2.13 | 1.96 | 1.67 | 1.57 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Serbia | Super Liga | 18:00 | Železničar Pančevo | Napredak | 0.00 | 1.64 | 1.33 | 1.21 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Poland | Polish Cup | 17:00 | Podbeskidzie | Resovia Rzeszów | 1.72 | 1.72 | 1.41 | 1.25 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Bulgaria | Parva Liga | 17:00 | Cherno More | Beroe | 0.00 | 1.96 | 1.61 | 1.40 |
1 | 04/08/2025 | Romania | Liga 1 | 19:30 | Rapid Bucuresti | Botoşani | 0.00 | 1.85 | 1.35 | 1.26 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | World | Club Friendlies 1 | 20:00 | Liverpool | Athletic Club | 1.08 | 1.82 | 1.61 | 1.18 |
1 | 05/08/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 19:00 | Dynamo Kyiv | Paphos | 0.00 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.21 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Peru | Primera Division | 18:00 | Alianza Universidad | Universitario | 1.72 | 1.96 | 1.64 | 1.30 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Georgia | Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga | 18:00 | Dinamo Batumi | Dinamo Tbilisi | 1.89 | 2.22 | 1.35 | 1.50 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Brazil | Serie C | 20:00 | Brusque | Itabaiana | 3.03 | 2.63 | 2.22 | 1.50 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Argentina | Primera C | 19:30 | Deportivo Muñiz | El Porvenir | 2.44 | 2.78 | 1.59 | 1.57 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Brazil | Gaucho 2 | 23:30 | Aimoré | Lajeadense | 2.38 | 3.03 | 2.33 | 1.67 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Argentina | Primera B Nacional | 01:10 | Defensores de Belgrano | Deportivo Morón | 3.03 | 3.23 | 2.04 | 1.73 |