Poisson Distribution Over 1.5 Goals Odds For Football Betting & Trading
Welcome to the Poisson Distribution Over 1.5 Goals Odds for football betting & trading. Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events occur with a known constant mean rate and independently of the time since the last event. Poisson distribution has been successfully used in models to predict football scores probabilities and pricing up matches. Learn more about Poisson here.
We provide you with 3 Poisson Distribution Models for Football Betting & Trading
Usually, Poisson Distribution models are calculated on the current season’s stats only. We give you more insight by preparing 3 separate models:
- Short Term Model*– calculated on stats from current season’s only
- Medium Term Model – based on stats from the last 20 matches.
- Long Term Model – covering stats from the last 50 matches.
All stats are taken from single competitions only, e.g. for Premier League fixtures, we use only matches from the Premier League. Feel free to browse the Poisson stats below. The upcoming matches are available for FTT & PRO members only.
* The short term model needs at least 10 matches of the new season for more reliable odds predictions. At the beginning of the seasons, the CS fields may be empty.
How to use Poisson Distribution odds for football betting & trading?
We calculate all the odds for you, so you don’t need to do any calculations. The 3 Poisson models will give you 3 separate prices for a given outcome.
Let’s take, for example, the over 2.5 goals market and the following figures:
- CS – 1.6
- L20 – 1.7
- L50 – 1.55
Current Over 2.5 goals odds are 1.5.
Looking at the 3 odds figures above, we can quickly state that the 1.5 odds seem to be a poor value for this match as the calculated/fair odds for the 3 given models are significantly higher.
It’s worth noting that the current season’s odds will be more accurate after more matches are played. Therefore, you may want to consider them once there are 10 league game weeks played or so.
Ideally, you would like to find matches with all 3 odds lower than the current available price. However, once you find such matches, you may wish to analyse them in more detail to determine whether your shortlisted picks represent value or try learning about other important reasons for the odds to be suspiciously higher than they should be.
Poisson Distribution Over 1.5 Goals Odds
You are browsing past 2 days matches stats. Current (Today's and 2 days in advance) statistics are available for FTT & PRO members only!
Learn more about our subscription options and subscribe now!M | Date | Country | Competition | KO | Home | Away | CS | L20 | L50 | odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M | Date | Country | Competition | KO | Home | Away | CS | L20 | L50 | odds |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Brazil | Copa do Brasil | 01:30 | Athletico PR | Corinthians | 10.00 | 1.39 | 1.45 | 1.62 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Brazil | Copa do Brasil | 23:30 | Bahia | Fluminense | 1.04 | 1.25 | 1.47 | 1.44 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Czech Republic | Czech Cup | 16:30 | Jiskra Domažlice | Písek | 2.50 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.20 |
1 | 27/08/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 20:00 | Benfica | Fenerbahçe | 1.37 | 1.18 | 1.39 | 1.30 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Austria | Regionalliga: Mitte | 18:00 | Weiz | Lafnitz | 1.15 | 1.04 | 1.11 | 1.16 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa League | 19:00 | Young Boys | Slovan Bratislava | 1.02 | 1.09 | 1.18 | 1.18 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Portugal | Liga Revelacao U23 | 16:00 | Famalicão U23 | Rio Ave U23 | 1.28 | 1.20 | 1.39 | 1.28 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Slovenia | Slovenian Cup | 16:00 | Brežice | Rogaška | 2.17 | 1.09 | 1.25 | 1.17 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Austria | Austrian Cup | 17:00 | Oedt | WSG Tirol | 0.00 | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.09 |
1 | 27/08/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 20:00 | FC København | Basel | 1.06 | 1.15 | 1.22 | 1.20 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Thailand | Thai League Two | 12:00 | Khonkaen United | Bangkok | 1.16 | 1.15 | 1.28 | 1.20 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Colombia | Copa Betplay | 22:00 | Alianza Petrolera | Santa Fe | 0.00 | 1.39 | 1.41 | 1.44 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Czech Republic | Czech Cup | 16:30 | Velke Hamry | Dukla Praha | 1.19 | 1.10 | 1.18 | 1.14 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Thailand | Thai League Two | 12:00 | Pattani | Police Tero FC | 0.00 | 1.33 | 1.27 | 1.36 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Czech Republic | Czech Cup | 16:30 | Petřín Plzeň | Motorlet Praha | 2.50 | 1.16 | 1.14 | 1.19 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Kazakhstan | Premier League | 16:00 | Astana | Kaisar | 1.00 | 1.08 | 1.12 | 1.11 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Thailand | Thai League Two | 13:00 | Trat | Chanthaburi | 2.63 | 1.20 | 1.23 | 1.22 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Malaysia | Super League | 13:15 | Kuala Lumpur City FC | PDRM | 1.32 | 1.20 | 1.25 | 1.22 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Czech Republic | Czech Cup | 16:30 | Bospor Bohumín | Karviná | 1.10 | 1.04 | 1.09 | 1.06 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Faroe Islands | 1. Deild | 19:00 | B71 | EB / Streymur II | 1.35 | 1.08 | 1.05 | 1.10 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Czech Republic | Czech Cup | 16:30 | Hlinsko | Trutnov | 1.04 | 1.14 | 1.12 | 1.15 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | South Africa | Premier League | 18:30 | Sekhukhune United | AmaZulu | 1.47 | 1.52 | 1.85 | 1.53 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Malaysia | Super League | 10:00 | Johor Darul Ta'zim | 1.67 | 1.01 | 1.02 | 1.02 | |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Colombia | Copa Betplay | 02:30 | Atlético Nacional | Deportes Quindío | 7.14 | 1.16 | 1.32 | 1.17 |
1 | 27/08/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 20:00 | Club Brugge | Rangers | 1.05 | 1.14 | 1.27 | 1.14 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Poland | 3. Liga - Group 1 | 17:00 | Wikielec | Olimpia Elbląg | 1.20 | 1.25 | 1.75 | 1.24 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Israel | State Cup | 17:30 | MS Jerusalem | Tzeirey Tira | 1.00 | 1.27 | 1.23 | 1.26 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Tunisia | Ligue 1 | 16:30 | ES Tunis | AS Slimane | 3.33 | 1.23 | 1.35 | 1.22 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Lithuania | A Lyga | 17:00 | Kauno Žalgiris | Hegelmann Litauen | 1.18 | 1.22 | 1.30 | 1.20 |
1 | 27/08/2025 | Europe | Europa League | 17:30 | AEK Larnaca | Brann | 3.33 | 1.30 | 1.27 | 1.28 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | England | Carabao Cup | 19:45 | Oxford United | Brighton & Hove Albion | 2.63 | 1.23 | 1.23 | 1.19 |
1 | 27/08/2025 | Spain | La Liga | 20:00 | Celta de Vigo | Real Betis | 2.27 | 1.27 | 1.39 | 1.22 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Vietnam | V-League | 13:15 | Công An Nhân Dân | Hà Nội | 1.61 | 1.30 | 1.32 | 1.25 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 18:30 | Universitatea Craiova | İstanbul Başakşehir | 3.70 | 1.30 | 1.37 | 1.25 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Poland | 3. Liga - Group 1 | 16:00 | Swit | Bełchatów | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.13 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Czech Republic | Czech Cup | 16:00 | Sokol Lanžhot | Hanácká | 20.00 | 1.22 | 1.16 | 1.15 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Austria | Austrian Cup | 19:30 | SV Horn | LASK Linz | 0.00 | 1.19 | 1.47 | 1.12 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Ecuador | Primera B | 21:30 | Guayaquil City | Leones del Norte | 1.75 | 1.72 | 1.89 | 1.63 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | El Salvador | Primera Division | 23:00 | Municipal Limeño | Isidro Metapán | 1.96 | 1.54 | 1.49 | 1.45 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Czech Republic | Czech Cup | 16:30 | FK Brandys nad Labem | Slovan Liberec | 1.00 | 1.15 | 1.20 | 1.05 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Brazil | Copa do Brasil | 23:30 | Atlético Mineiro | Cruzeiro | 4.35 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.57 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa League | 16:00 | KuPS | FC Midtjylland | 6.67 | 1.28 | 1.39 | 1.18 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 18:00 | Beşiktaş | Lausanne Sport | 1.08 | 1.22 | 1.28 | 1.12 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa League | 19:00 | FC Utrecht | Zrinjski | 1.14 | 1.32 | 1.41 | 1.21 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Romania | Romania Cup | 15:30 | CSM Satu Mare | CSM Slatina | 1.00 | 1.37 | 1.69 | 1.25 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 20:00 | FSV Mainz 05 | Rosenborg | 2.70 | 1.27 | 1.16 | 1.15 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Austria | Austrian Cup | 19:30 | Velden | Hartberg | 1.00 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.09 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Faroe Islands | 1. Deild | 20:00 | NSÍ II | Skála | 1.06 | 1.20 | 1.18 | 1.07 |
1 | 27/08/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 17:45 | Qarabağ | Ferencvárosi | 2.33 | 1.35 | 1.23 | 1.20 |
1 | 27/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 17:45 | Riga | Sparta Praha | 1.28 | 1.41 | 1.37 | 1.26 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Portugal | Liga Revelacao U23 | 17:00 | Estrela U23 | Portimonense U23 | 1.92 | 1.37 | 1.35 | 1.21 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Mexico | Liga Mx Women | 02:07 | Guadalajara W | Monterrey W | 1.82 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.25 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Vietnam | V-League | 12:00 | Hải Phòng | Sông Lam Nghệ An | 1.03 | 1.49 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Tunisia | Ligue 1 | 16:30 | Olympique Béja | Kairouan | 0.00 | 2.13 | 1.79 | 1.97 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Czech Republic | Czech Cup | 16:30 | Rokycany | Mladá Boleslav | 1.00 | 1.22 | 1.37 | 1.06 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Vietnam | V-League | 13:15 | Công an TP.Hồ Chí Minh | Hoang Anh Gia Lai | 0.00 | 1.49 | 1.54 | 1.33 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa League | 19:30 | FCSB | Aberdeen | 1.10 | 1.39 | 1.35 | 1.23 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | England | Carabao Cup | 19:45 | Fulham | Bristol City | 1.01 | 1.35 | 1.49 | 1.18 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Romania | Romania Cup | 15:30 | Metalul Buzău | Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt | 0.00 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.18 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 19:45 | Dinamo City | Jagiellonia Białystok | 2.13 | 1.47 | 1.30 | 1.30 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 20:00 | Legia Warszawa | Hibernian | 4.76 | 1.37 | 1.28 | 1.20 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Japan | Emperor Cup | 10:30 | Machida Zelvia | Kashima Antlers | 2.13 | 1.54 | 1.43 | 1.36 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Colombia | Copa Betplay | 00:30 | Atlético Bucaramanga | América de Cali | 2.27 | 1.69 | 1.67 | 1.50 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 19:00 | Baník Ostrava | Celje | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.28 | 1.14 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Czech Republic | Czech Cup | 16:30 | Vysoke Myto | Vysočina Jihlava | 1.96 | 1.35 | 1.28 | 1.15 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Mexico | Liga Mx Women | 02:00 | Pachuca W | Atlas W | 1.47 | 1.30 | 1.20 | 1.09 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Czech Republic | Czech Cup | 16:30 | TJ Tatran Bohunice | Zbrojovka Brno | 20.00 | 1.27 | 1.33 | 1.06 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Saudi Arabia | Pro League | 19:00 | Al Ettifaq | Al Kholood | 1.39 | 1.43 | 1.47 | 1.22 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Venezuela | Copa Venezuela | 21:00 | UCV | Academia Anzoátegui | 0.00 | 1.52 | 1.59 | 1.30 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Israel | State Cup | 19:15 | Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed | Hapoel Migdal Haemek | 1.12 | 1.37 | 1.59 | 1.15 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Ecuador | Primera B | 21:30 | San Antonio | Independiente Juniors | 1.69 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.61 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Thailand | Thai League Two | 13:00 | Pattaya United | Nakhon Si Thammarat | 1.04 | 1.52 | 1.43 | 1.28 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | South Africa | Premier League | 18:30 | Golden Arrows | Magesi | 0.00 | 1.92 | 1.61 | 1.67 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Germany | DFB Pokal | 19:45 | Wehen Wiesbaden | FC Bayern München | 1.79 | 1.27 | 1.19 | 1.02 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 20:00 | Shamrock Rovers | Santa Clara | 3.03 | 1.75 | 1.59 | 1.50 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Venezuela | Copa Venezuela | 01:00 | Deportivo La Guaira | Caracas | 0.00 | 1.67 | 1.72 | 1.40 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Finland | Ykkonen | 16:30 | Lahti | Klubi-04 | 1.19 | 1.41 | 1.19 | 1.12 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa League | 19:00 | Genk | Lech Poznań | 1.03 | 1.43 | 1.45 | 1.14 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Korea Republic | Korean Cup | 11:30 | Gangwon | Jeonbuk Motors | 1.33 | 1.67 | 1.79 | 1.36 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Venezuela | Copa Venezuela | 01:00 | Deportivo La Guaira | Caracas | 0.00 | 1.67 | 1.72 | 1.36 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Japan | Emperor Cup | 10:30 | Nagoya Grampus | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2.44 | 1.67 | 1.92 | 1.35 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 18:30 | AZ | Levski Sofia | 0.00 | 1.52 | 1.35 | 1.20 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 18:00 | Rīgas FS | Hamrun Spartans | 1.20 | 1.59 | 1.72 | 1.26 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 20:00 | Virtus | Breidablik | 1.47 | 1.52 | 1.33 | 1.19 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Australia | Queensland Premier League | 11:30 | Logan Lightning | Rochedale Rovers | 1.32 | 1.49 | 1.25 | 1.14 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Colombia | Copa Betplay | 21:00 | Fortaleza CEIF | Independiente Medellín | 11.11 | 1.92 | 1.54 | 1.57 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Israel | State Cup | 16:30 | MS Dimona | Hapoel Azor | 1.09 | 1.61 | 1.69 | 1.25 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Japan | Emperor Cup | 11:00 | FC Tokyo | Urawa Reds | 1.41 | 1.72 | 1.64 | 1.32 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Scotland | Challenge Cup | 19:45 | Hamilton Academical | Edinburgh City | 0.00 | 1.61 | 1.37 | 1.20 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Colombia | Copa Betplay | 01:00 | Deportivo Pereira | Real Cundinamarca | 7.14 | 1.67 | 1.56 | 1.25 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Paraguay | Division Intermedia | 22:30 | River Plate | Fernando de la Mora | 1.85 | 1.72 | 1.56 | 1.30 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Tunisia | Ligue 1 | 16:30 | Stade Tunisien | ES Métlaoui | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1.54 | 1.56 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 18:00 | SK Rapid | Győri ETO | 1.03 | 1.59 | 1.33 | 1.15 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Uzbekistan | Uzbekistan Cup | 15:30 | Bunyodkor | Buxoro | 50.00 | 1.72 | 1.82 | 1.25 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Paraguay | Division Intermedia | 19:30 | Deportivo Santaní | Sportivo Carapeguá | 1.61 | 1.85 | 1.61 | 1.38 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Romania | Romania Cup | 15:30 | ASU Poli Timişoara | CS Dinamo București | 33.33 | 1.79 | 1.32 | 1.30 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Vietnam | V-League | 12:00 | Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh | Đông Á Thanh Hoá | 1.33 | 2.04 | 1.72 | 1.52 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 19:00 | Arda | Raków Częstochowa | 25.00 | 1.96 | 1.49 | 1.44 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Tunisia | Ligue 1 | 16:30 | Etoile du Sahel | AS Gabès | 0.00 | 2.08 | 1.54 | 1.54 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Malta | Premier League | 17:45 | Hibernians | Birkirkara | 0.00 | 1.79 | 1.61 | 1.21 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Romania | Romania Cup | 15:30 | Voluntari | Csikszereda | 1.11 | 1.89 | 2.13 | 1.30 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Brazil | Copa Rio | 18:45 | América RJ | Cabofriense | 4.17 | 2.08 | 2.08 | 1.48 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Austria | Austrian Cup | 18:00 | Floridsdorfer AC | Stripfing | 0.00 | 1.82 | 1.54 | 1.19 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 17:00 | Noah | Olimpija | 1.47 | 1.82 | 1.30 | 1.19 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Thailand | Thai League Two | 12:00 | Nakhon Pathom | Chainat Hornbill | 2.04 | 2.04 | 1.61 | 1.40 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Japan | Emperor Cup | 11:00 | Sagamihara | Vissel Kobe | 2.22 | 1.85 | 1.82 | 1.20 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Chile | Primera Division | 00:00 | Everton | La Serena | 1.43 | 1.92 | 1.52 | 1.25 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Uzbekistan | Uzbekistan Cup | 14:30 | Dinamo Samarqand | Shurtan | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1.79 | 1.29 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Iran | Azadegan League | 17:00 | Saipa | Mes Kerman | 2.38 | 2.38 | 2.33 | 1.64 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Malaysia | Super League | 13:15 | Selangor | Terengganu | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1.41 | 1.25 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Brazil | Copa do Brasil | 01:30 | Vasco da Gama | Botafogo | 2.22 | 2.17 | 1.49 | 1.36 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 19:00 | AEK Athens | Anderlecht | 8.33 | 2.08 | 1.61 | 1.26 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 19:45 | Linfield | Shelbourne | 3.03 | 2.22 | 1.82 | 1.36 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Romania | Romania Cup | 15:30 | Dumbrăviţa | Bihor Oradea | 1.01 | 2.08 | 1.67 | 1.21 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Ecuador | Primera B | 21:30 | 2.44 | 2.27 | 2.33 | 1.40 | ||
0 | 27/08/2025 | Vietnam | V-League | 12:00 | Da Nang | Ninh Bình | 1.47 | 2.44 | 2.00 | 1.52 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Slovakia | Slovakia Cup | 16:00 | Partizán Bardejov | Vranov nad Topľou | 0.00 | 2.08 | 1.56 | 1.14 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Tunisia | Ligue 1 | 16:30 | CS Sfaxien | JS Omrane | 3.33 | 2.56 | 2.33 | 1.53 |
1 | 28/08/2025 | Europe | Europa League | 18:30 | PAOK | Rijeka | 0.00 | 2.33 | 1.79 | 1.30 |
0 | 28/08/2025 | Romania | Romania Cup | 15:00 | Corvinul Hunedoara | Farul Constanța | 5.56 | 2.33 | 1.61 | 1.22 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Romania | Romania Cup | 15:30 | Şoimii Gura Humorului | Sepsi | 3.45 | 2.70 | 2.78 | 1.20 |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Malawi | Super League | 13:30 | CIVO United | 2.94 | 3.45 | 4.76 | 1.52 | |
0 | 27/08/2025 | Tunisia | Ligue 1 | 16:30 | AS Marsa | US Monastir | 3.33 | 3.70 | 1.85 | 1.53 |