Poisson Distribution For Football Betting & Trading
Welcome to the Poisson Distribution Odds For Home Wins for football betting & trading. Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events occur with a known constant mean rate and independently of the time since the last event. Poisson distribution has been successfully used in models to predict football scores probabilities and pricing up matches. Learn more about Poisson here.
We provide you with 3 Poisson Distribution Models for Football Betting & Trading
Usually, Poisson Distribution models are calculated on the current season’s stats only. We give you more insight by preparing 3 separate models:
- Short Term Model*– calculated on stats from current season’s only
- Medium Term Model – based on stats from the last 20 matches.
- Long Term Model – covering stats from the last 50 matches.
All stats are taken from single competitions only, e.g. for Premier League fixtures, we use only matches from the Premier League. Feel free to browse the Poisson stats below. The upcoming matches are available for FTT & PRO members only.
* The short term model needs at least 10 matches of the new season for more reliable odds predictions. At the beginning of the seasons, the CS fields may be empty.
How to use Poisson Distribution odds for football betting & trading?
We calculate all the odds for you, so you don’t need to do any calculations. The 3 Poisson models will give you 3 separate prices for a given outcome.
Let’s take, for example, the over 2.5 goals market and the following figures:
- CS – 1.6
- L20 – 1.7
- L50 – 1.55
Current Over 2.5 goals odds are 1.5.
Looking at the 3 odds figures above, we can quickly state that the 1.5 odds seem to be a poor value for this match as the calculated/fair odds for the 3 given models are significantly higher.
It’s worth noting that the current season’s odds will be more accurate after more matches are played. Therefore, you may want to consider them once there are 10 league game weeks played or so.
Ideally, you would like to find matches with all 3 odds lower than the current available price. However, once you find such matches, you may wish to analyse them in more detail to determine whether your shortlisted picks represent value or try learning about other important reasons for the odds to be suspiciously higher than they should be.
Poisson Distribution Odds For Home Wins
You are browsing past 2 days matches stats. Current (Today's and 2 days in advance) statistics are available for FTT & PRO members only!
Learn more about our subscription options and subscribe now!M | Date | Country | Competition | KO | Home | Away | CS | L20 | L50 | odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M | Date | Country | Competition | KO | Home | Away | CS | L20 | L50 | odds |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Norway | Toppserien | 17:00 | Bodø / Glimt W | Brann W | 100.00 | 12.50 | 6.67 | 41.00 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | World | Club Friendlies 1 | 12:00 | Daegu | FC Barcelona | 10.00 | 11.11 | 5.88 | 29.00 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Faroe Islands | Meistaradeildin | 16:00 | Suduroy | HB | 33.33 | 5.00 | 5.88 | 11.47 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Africa | African Nations Championship | 15:00 | Niger | Guinea | 4.00 | 1.56 | 1.56 | 4.33 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Mexico | Liga Mx Women | 00:00 | Atlético San Luis W | Juárez W | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.35 | 6.25 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Colombia | Copa Betplay | 22:00 | Cúcuta Deportivo | Atlético Nacional | 2.22 | 2.27 | 2.27 | 3.90 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Australia | Queensland Premier League | 10:30 | Southside Eagles | SWQ Thunder | 2.13 | 1.92 | 2.56 | 3.48 |
1 | 05/08/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 18:00 | Malmö FF | FC København | 0.00 | 1.92 | 1.96 | 3.30 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Paraguay | Division 1 | 22:30 | Atlético Tembetary | General Caballero JLM | 2.56 | 2.00 | 2.13 | 3.20 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Iceland | Pepsideild | 20:15 | ÍA | Valur | 20.00 | 3.03 | 3.45 | 4.20 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Peru | Primera Division | 18:00 | Alianza Universidad | Universitario | 10.00 | 3.23 | 3.23 | 4.33 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Sweden | Ettan: South | 18:00 | Trollhättan | Ljungskile | 12.50 | 2.44 | 1.89 | 3.40 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Chile | Primera B | 00:30 | Concepcion | Deportes Santa Cruz | 1.96 | 1.52 | 1.96 | 2.25 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Estonia | Esiliiga A | 17:00 | Nõmme Kalju II | Viimsi | 16.67 | 4.76 | 5.56 | 5.47 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Georgia | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 14:00 | Meshakhte | Samtredia | 2.38 | 1.49 | 1.52 | 2.02 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Mexico | Liga Mx Women | 00:00 | Pumas UNAM W | Cruz Azul W | 1.19 | 1.72 | 1.67 | 2.25 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Germany | Oberliga: Hamburg | 18:00 | HEBC | Eimsbutteler TV | 0.00 | 2.78 | 2.08 | 3.31 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Paraguay | Division 1 | 20:00 | Sportivo Ameliano | Libertad | 6.67 | 3.85 | 5.88 | 4.33 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Sweden | Ettan: South | 18:00 | Hässleholms IF | Ariana | 4.17 | 1.72 | 1.59 | 2.15 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Colombia | Torneo Betplay | 00:05 | Leones FC | Barranquilla | 1.37 | 1.69 | 1.96 | 2.10 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Lithuania | A Lyga | 17:00 | Banga | FA Šiauliai | 3.33 | 2.50 | 3.85 | 2.90 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Georgia | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 17:00 | Gonio | Rustavi | 2.56 | 2.13 | 1.89 | 2.50 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Germany | Oberliga: Hamburg | 18:00 | Halstenbek-Rellingen | TSV Sasel | 0.00 | 2.50 | 2.63 | 2.85 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Estonia | Esiliiga A | 17:00 | Elva | Tartu Welco | 6.25 | 4.17 | 5.88 | 4.50 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Montenegro | First League | 19:00 | Arsenal Tivat | Jedinstvo | 1.92 | 2.13 | 2.33 | 2.45 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Brazil | Paulista U20 | 19:00 | Velo Clube U20 | Mirassol U20 | 6.25 | 3.33 | 5.88 | 3.65 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Republic of Ireland | First Division | 17:00 | Treaty United | Kerry | 1.41 | 1.52 | 1.61 | 1.80 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Brazil | Serie B | 01:30 | Cuiabá | Volta Redonda | 1.41 | 1.59 | 2.17 | 1.85 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Republic of Ireland | First Division | 17:00 | Finn Harps | Bray Wanderers | 2.94 | 2.86 | 2.70 | 3.10 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Finland | Veikkausliiga | 17:00 | HJK | Inter Turku | 2.94 | 2.27 | 1.72 | 2.50 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Serbia | Super Liga | 18:00 | Železničar Pančevo | Napredak | 0.00 | 1.75 | 1.69 | 1.95 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Chile | Primera Division | 23:00 | Universidad Chile | Cobresal | 1.30 | 1.32 | 1.72 | 1.44 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Brazil | Serie C | 23:30 | Confiança | Anápolis | 1.79 | 1.49 | 1.79 | 1.60 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Argentina | Primera C | 19:30 | Berazategui | Central Córdoba | 1.69 | 1.96 | 2.22 | 2.00 |
1 | 05/08/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 19:45 | Rangers | Viktoria Plzeň | 1.37 | 2.08 | 2.08 | 2.10 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Colombia | Torneo Betplay | 02:10 | Real Cartagena | Real Soacha | 2.22 | 1.67 | 1.69 | 1.64 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Brazil | Gaucho 2 | 23:30 | Aimoré | Lajeadense | 1.37 | 1.85 | 2.56 | 1.81 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Chile | Primera B | 01:00 | Santiago Wanderers | San Marcos | 2.44 | 2.22 | 2.00 | 2.15 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Mexico | Liga Mx Women | 02:00 | Pachuca W | Toluca W | 5.56 | 1.49 | 1.54 | 1.42 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Argentina | Primera C | 19:30 | Claypole | Defensores de Cambaceres | 1.61 | 1.92 | 2.17 | 1.83 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Finland | Veikkausliiga | 16:00 | Ilves | Gnistan | 1.39 | 1.47 | 2.13 | 1.36 |
1 | 04/08/2025 | Brazil | Serie A | 00:00 | Santos | Juventude | 1.19 | 1.49 | 1.69 | 1.38 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Finland | Kakkonen | 16:30 | VJS | PEPO | 1.35 | 1.39 | 1.72 | 1.27 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Peru | Primera Division | 21:00 | Melgar | Juan Pablo II College | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.39 | 1.20 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Canada | Premier League | 20:00 | HFX Wanderers | Vancouver FC | 1.67 | 1.69 | 1.85 | 1.55 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Argentina | Primera B Nacional | 01:10 | Defensores de Belgrano | Deportivo Morón | 5.56 | 2.94 | 2.27 | 2.80 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Peru | Primera Division | 01:00 | Cienciano | Los Chankas | 2.13 | 1.56 | 1.82 | 1.42 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Brazil | Serie B | 23:00 | Athletic Club | Atlético GO | 2.44 | 2.22 | 2.04 | 2.00 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Poland | Polish Cup | 17:00 | Podbeskidzie | Resovia Rzeszów | 1.79 | 2.13 | 1.67 | 1.91 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Sweden | Ettan: North | 18:00 | Vasalund | Hammarby Talang | 1.59 | 2.70 | 2.22 | 2.45 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Australia | Queensland NPL Women | 10:45 | Gold Coast Knights W | Sunshine Coast Wanderers W | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.41 | 1.20 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Germany | Oberliga: Hamburg | 18:30 | Paloma | Vorwarts-Wacker 04 | 0.00 | 2.22 | 2.27 | 1.97 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Israel | Toto Cup Ligat Leumit | 19:15 | Hapoel Afula | Hapoel Ra'anana | 0.00 | 4.76 | 5.00 | 4.50 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Uzbekistan | Professional Football League | 16:00 | Pakhtakor | OKMK | 1.67 | 1.96 | 2.08 | 1.70 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Georgia | Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga | 18:00 | Dinamo Batumi | Dinamo Tbilisi | 2.63 | 2.63 | 2.38 | 2.30 |
1 | 04/08/2025 | Romania | Liga 1 | 17:00 | Unirea Slobozia | Otelul | 50.00 | 3.23 | 2.56 | 2.90 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Republic of Ireland | First Division | 17:00 | Dundalk | Longford Town | 1.28 | 1.67 | 1.72 | 1.33 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Republic of Ireland | First Division | 17:00 | Cobh Ramblers | Wexford Youths | 1.89 | 2.08 | 2.33 | 1.73 |
1 | 04/08/2025 | Romania | Liga 1 | 19:30 | Rapid Bucuresti | Botoşani | 0.00 | 1.96 | 1.64 | 1.60 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Bolivia | Liga De Futbol Prof | 22:30 | Always Ready | Nacional Potosí | 1.45 | 1.79 | 1.56 | 1.42 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Panama | Lpf | 02:30 | UMECIT | Plaza Amador | 4.55 | 4.00 | 2.56 | 3.62 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Sweden | Superettan | 18:00 | Umeå | Falkenberg | 4.76 | 3.85 | 5.00 | 3.40 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Argentina | Primera C | 19:30 | Deportivo Muñiz | El Porvenir | 1.92 | 2.56 | 2.33 | 2.10 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Germany | Oberliga: Hamburg | 18:00 | ETSV Hamburg | Curslack-Neuengamme | 1.19 | 1.96 | 1.61 | 1.49 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Australia | Victoria Premier League 2 | 10:30 | Kingston City | Moreland City | 2.00 | 2.27 | 2.27 | 1.79 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Australia | Npl Queensland | 10:45 | SC Wanderers | Eastern Suburbs Brisbane | 25.00 | 3.23 | 2.38 | 2.75 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Lithuania | A Lyga | 18:00 | Žalgiris | Kauno Žalgiris | 5.88 | 2.33 | 2.08 | 1.83 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Georgia | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 14:00 | Merani Martvili | FC Iberia 1999 II | 2.78 | 2.50 | 3.57 | 1.97 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | World | Club Friendlies 1 | 20:00 | Liverpool | Athletic Club | 2.17 | 2.17 | 1.89 | 1.60 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Romania | Liga 2 | 18:00 | CSM Iaşi | Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt | 2.70 | 2.27 | 2.17 | 1.70 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Colombia | Liga BetPlay | 02:30 | Rionegro Águilas | Fortaleza CEIF | 2.44 | 2.94 | 2.70 | 2.35 |
1 | 05/08/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 19:00 | Dynamo Kyiv | Paphos | 0.00 | 2.22 | 2.50 | 1.60 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Australia | Victoria Premier League 2 | 11:30 | Bulleen Lions | Melbourne City II | 4.35 | 3.85 | 2.50 | 3.22 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Bulgaria | Parva Liga | 17:00 | Cherno More | Beroe | 0.00 | 2.17 | 1.61 | 1.48 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Brazil | Serie C | 20:00 | Brusque | Itabaiana | 2.13 | 2.44 | 2.63 | 1.73 |
1 | 05/08/2025 | Europe | Europa Conference League | 19:45 | KÍ | Neman Grodno | 1.39 | 2.86 | 1.82 | 2.10 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Poland | 1. Liga | 18:00 | Tychy 71 | Wisła Kraków | 0.00 | 4.55 | 3.33 | 3.60 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Peru | Primera Division | 19:00 | UTC Cajamarca | Cusco FC | 7.14 | 4.76 | 2.38 | 3.80 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Bolivia | Liga De Futbol Prof | 20:30 | Oriente Petrolero | Aurora | 2.44 | 2.86 | 2.50 | 1.90 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Peru | Primera Division | 21:00 | Sport Boys | ADT | 2.04 | 2.78 | 3.03 | 1.75 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Estonia | Meistriliiga | 17:00 | Tallinna Kalev | Vaprus | 16.67 | 5.56 | 4.17 | 4.50 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Estonia | Esiliiga B | 17:00 | Paide U21 | Laanemaa Haapsalu | 1.67 | 2.38 | 2.70 | 1.30 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Ecuador | Liga Pro | 01:00 | Delfin | Vinotinto FC | 2.94 | 3.03 | 2.63 | 1.90 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Estonia | Esiliiga B | 17:00 | Phoenix | Nõmme United II | 2.38 | 3.45 | 2.56 | 2.31 |
1 | 05/08/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 19:00 | Skendija 79 | Qarabağ | 0.00 | 6.25 | 4.55 | 5.00 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Finland | Kolmonen | 16:30 | MP II | Purha | 1.41 | 2.33 | 4.35 | 1.07 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Sweden | Ettan: South | 18:00 | Skövde AIK | IFK Skovde | 1.75 | 3.23 | 2.33 | 1.67 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Republic of Ireland | First Division | 17:00 | Athlone Town | UCD | 9.09 | 5.56 | 1.96 | 3.90 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Colombia | Torneo Betplay | 22:00 | Real San Andres | Bogotá | 1.82 | 4.00 | 2.17 | 2.33 |
1 | 04/08/2025 | Sweden | Allsvenskan | 18:00 | IFK Göteborg | Degerfors | 2.08 | 3.70 | 2.27 | 1.65 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Bulgaria | Parva Liga | 19:15 | Botev Plovdiv | Arda | 2.13 | 3.85 | 3.03 | 1.75 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Brazil | Serie C | 23:30 | Ituano | Londrina | 5.56 | 4.76 | 3.03 | 2.63 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Georgia | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 16:00 | Spaeri | Lokomotivi Tbilisi | 1.56 | 4.00 | 2.00 | 1.75 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Australia | Queensland NPL Women | 11:30 | Mitchelton W | Brisbane City W | 50.00 | 33.33 | 14.29 | 31.00 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Israel | Toto Cup Ligat Leumit | 16:00 | Hapoel Hadera | Hapoel Acre | 4.55 | 5.88 | 7.14 | 3.50 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Lithuania | A Lyga | 17:30 | Džiugas Telšiai | Hegelmann Litauen | 3.45 | 5.88 | 5.56 | 3.30 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Brazil | Copa Paulista | 23:45 | São Bento | Rio Branco SP | 0.00 | 4.55 | 3.13 | 1.91 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Canada | Premier League | 23:00 | Pacific | Cavalry | 5.56 | 7.69 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Paraguay | Division 1 | 22:30 | Deportivo Recoleta | Guaraní | 10.00 | 6.25 | 2.17 | 3.20 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Israel | Toto Cup Ligat Leumit | 18:00 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | Hapoel Kfar Shalem | 11.11 | 4.55 | 4.35 | 1.48 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Israel | Toto Cup Ligat Al | 17:45 | Ashdod | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 1.89 | 5.26 | 3.45 | 2.15 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Israel | Toto Cup Ligat Al | 18:00 | Maccabi Netanya | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 5.00 | 6.25 | 2.94 | 2.90 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Germany | Oberliga: Hamburg | 18:00 | Türkiye | Niendorfer TSV | 0.00 | 6.67 | 5.88 | 3.21 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Germany | Oberliga: Hamburg | 18:00 | Teutonia Hamburg | Harksheide | 3.85 | 5.56 | 2.22 | 1.98 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Israel | Toto Cup Ligat Leumit | 18:00 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | Ironi Modi'in | 2.56 | 5.88 | 7.14 | 1.50 |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Brazil | Serie D | 23:30 | Sampaio Corrêa | Manauara | 2.13 | 7.14 | 5.00 | 2.28 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Mexico | Liga Mx Women | 02:00 | Santos Laguna W | Guadalajara W | 0.00 | 12.50 | 14.29 | 6.00 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Norway | Toppserien | 17:00 | Lyn W | Vålerenga W | 10.00 | 20.00 | 9.09 | 7.35 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Germany | Oberliga: Hamburg | 18:00 | Süderelbe | 0.00 | 16.67 | 9.09 | 1.43 | |
0 | 04/08/2025 | Armenia | Premier League | 14:30 | Alashkert | Pyunik | 1.67 | 25.00 | 7.69 | 4.95 |
0 | 05/08/2025 | Germany | Oberliga: Hamburg | 18:00 | Dassendorf | 1.75 | 50.00 | 100.00 | 4.10 |