Poisson Distribution Football Correct Score Predictions
Welcome to the Poisson Distribution Football Correct Score Predictions for betting & trading. Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events occur with a known constant mean rate and independently of the time since the last event. Poisson distribution has been successfully used in models to predict football scores probabilities and pricing up matches. Learn more about Poisson here.
By using goals averages for leagues and both involved teams, we calculate teams’ Defence Strength & Attack Strength values.
The next step is to use the Poisson Distribution Formula to find probabilities of all scores from 0-0 to 5-5 to find the most likely score-lines.
Lastly, we publish TOP 3 most likely correct score predictions from each model. See the tables below.
We provide you with 3 Poisson Distribution Models for Football Betting & Trading
Usually, Poisson Distribution models are calculated on the current season’s stats only. We give you more insight by preparing 3 separate models:
- Short Term Model*– calculated on stats from current season’s only
- Medium Term Model – based on stats from the last 20 matches.
- Long Term Model – covering stats from the last 50 matches.
All stats are taken from single competitions only, e.g. for Premier League fixtures, we use only matches from the Premier League. Feel free to browse the Poisson stats below. The upcoming matches are available for FTT & PRO members only.
* The short term model needs at least 10 matches of the new season for more reliable odds predictions. At the beginning of the seasons, the CS fields may be empty.
Poisson Distribution Football Correct Score Predictions
You are browsing past 2 days matches stats. Current (Today's and 2 days in advance) statistics are available for FTT & PRO members only!
Learn more about our subscription options and subscribe now!| M | Date | Country | Competition | KO | Home | Away | CS1 | CS2 | CS3 | L201 | L202 | L203 | L501 | L502 | L503 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M | Date | Country | Competition | KO | Home | Away | CS1 | CS2 | CS3 | L201 | L202 | L203 | L501 | L502 | L503 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 01:00 | Manhattan | Staten Island Athletic | 5-2 | 5-3 | 4-2 | 2-1 | 2-0 | 3-1 | 2-1 | 2-0 | 3-1 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | St. Kitts and Nevis | Premier League | 01:00 | Old Road Jets United | Village Superstars | 1-1 | 2-1 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 01:00 | Oly Town | Bigfoot | 2-1 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 01:30 | Lonestar | Brazos Valley | 0-0 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Colombia | Liga BetPlay | 01:30 | La Equidad | Rionegro Águilas | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Canada | Premier League | 02:00 | Vancouver FC | Cavalry | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 02:00 | Tucson | Stars FC | 5-0 | 5-1 | 4-0 | 5-1 | 5-0 | 4-1 | 4-1 | 3-1 | 5-1 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 03:00 | AMSG | Ventura County Fusion | 1-0 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Vietnam | U21 Championship | 09:00 | Binh Dinh U21 | An Giang U21 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Vietnam | U21 Championship | 09:00 | Hoang Anh Gia Lai U21 | Quang Nam U21 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 3-2 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 3-0 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Vietnam | U21 Championship | 09:00 | Da Nang U21 | Hue U21 | 3-0 | 4-0 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Vietnam | U21 Championship | 09:00 | Viettel U21 | PVF-Công An Nhân Dân U21 | 5-0 | 4-0 | 3-0 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Vietnam | U21 Championship | 09:30 | PVF Vietnam U21 | SLNA U21 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 3-2 | 1-2 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Vietnam | U21 Championship | 09:30 | Hồ Chí Minh U21 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 | |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Vietnam | U21 Championship | 09:30 | Thanh Hoa U21 | Đào Hà U21 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 3-2 | 5-1 | 5-0 | 4-1 | 5-1 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Australia | Brisbane Premier League | 11:30 | AC Carina | Virginia United | 1-4 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 3-3 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Bhutan | Bhutan Premier League | 13:00 | Transport United | 2-0 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 1-0 | |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Norway | 2. Division - Group 1 | 15:00 | Brann II | Jerv | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Belarus | Belarusian Cup | 16:15 | Belshina | Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 4-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Finland | Ykkonen | 16:30 | Lahti | TPS | 2-1 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Finland | Kakkonen | 16:30 | HJS Akatemia | TPV | 1-2 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 2-1 | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Estonia | Esiliiga A | 17:00 | Viimsi | FC Tallinn | 2-0 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Finland | Kakkonen | 17:00 | NJS | PPJ | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| 1 | 14/07/2025 | Romania | Liga 1 | 17:00 | Botoşani | Farul Constanța | 3-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Lithuania | A Lyga | 18:00 | Dainava | Panevėžys | 0-1 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| 1 | 14/07/2025 | Sweden | Allsvenskan | 18:00 | Sirius | Mjällby | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Argentina | Primera C | 19:00 | Estrella del Sur | Argentino Rosario | 0-0 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| 1 | 14/07/2025 | Romania | Liga 1 | 19:30 | Csikszereda | Dinamo Bucureşti | 5-0 | 4-0 | 3-0 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Paraguay | Division Intermedia | 19:30 | Sportivo San Lorenzo | Sol de América | 1-0 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Iceland | Pepsideild | 19:30 | ÍBV | Stjarnan | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Argentina | Primera C | 19:30 | Sportivo Barracas | Luján | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Africa | African Championship Women | 20:00 | South Africa W | Mali W | 1-0 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Africa | African Championship Women | 20:00 | Ghana W | Tanzania W | 0-0 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 4-0 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 4-0 | 2-0 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Iceland | Pepsideild | 20:15 | ÍA | KR Reykjavík | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1-4 | 2-1 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Paraguay | Division Intermedia | 22:00 | Guaireña | 0-1 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Bolivia | Liga De Futbol Prof | 23:00 | Nacional Potosí | Real Oruro | 1-0 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Brazil | Copa Paulista | 23:00 | Guarani | Rio Branco SP | 3-1 | 2-1 | 4-1 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Brazil | Serie B | 23:00 | Athletic Club | Avaí | 0-2 | 1-2 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Brazil | Serie C | 23:30 | Retrô | CSA | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Brazil | Serie C | 23:30 | Maringá | Brusque | 1-1 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Brazil | Brasileiro U20 | 00:00 | Flamengo RJ U20 | Atletico Mineiro U20 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| 1 | 14/07/2025 | Brazil | Serie A | 00:00 | Juventude | Sport Recife | 1-0 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 0 | 14/07/2025 | Brazil | Serie D | 00:00 | Marcílio Dias | Barra FC | 1-0 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| 0 | 15/07/2025 | Ecuador | Liga Pro | 01:00 | Aucas | El Nacional | 2-1 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| 0 | 15/07/2025 | Argentina | Primera B Metropolitana | 01:10 | Comunicaciones | San Martín Burzaco | 1-0 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| 0 | 15/07/2025 | Brazil | Serie B | 01:30 | Botafogo SP | Volta Redonda | 0-0 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| 0 | 15/07/2025 | Mongolia | Premier League | 06:15 | Hunters | Tuv Azarganuud | 5-0 | 4-0 | 5-1 | 3-1 | 3-0 | 2-1 | 3-1 | 2-1 | 4-1 |
| 0 | 15/07/2025 | Mongolia | Premier League | 09:15 | Bayanzürkh Sporting | Khovd | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| 0 | 15/07/2025 | Australia | Queensland NPL Women | 09:30 | Brisbane City W | Gold Coast United W | 2-0 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| 0 | 15/07/2025 | Australia | Queensland NPL Women | 10:30 | Eastern Suburbs NPL | North Lakes United W | 5-0 | 5-1 | 4-0 | 4-0 | 5-0 | 3-0 | 4-0 | 3-0 | 5-0 |
| 0 | 15/07/2025 | Australia | South Australia Reserves Premier League | 11:30 | Adelaide United Res. | Para Hills Knights Res. | 4-1 | 5-1 | 3-1 | 5-1 | 4-1 | 5-0 | 3-1 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| 0 | 15/07/2025 | Mongolia | Premier League | 12:15 | Ulaanbaatar | Khoromkhon | 1-0 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 2-1 | 3-1 | 1-1 | 3-0 | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| 1 | 15/07/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 16:00 | Kairat | Olimpija | 1-1 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| 1 | 15/07/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 18:00 | Rīgas FS | Levadia | 2-1 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 1 | 15/07/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 18:00 | Milsami | KuPS | 2-0 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 0 | 15/07/2025 | Iceland | U19 League | 19:00 | KR / KV U19 | Thór / THK / V / M U19 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 1-2 | 2-0 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| 0 | 15/07/2025 | Iceland | U19 League | 19:00 | Thróttur / SR U19 | ÍA / Ka / Sk / VÓ U19 | 2-2 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| 1 | 15/07/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 19:30 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | FCSB | 2-0 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| 0 | 15/07/2025 | Scotland | League Cup | 19:45 | Airdrieonians | Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic | 4-0 | 5-0 | 3-0 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| 0 | 15/07/2025 | Scotland | League Cup | 19:45 | Annan Athletic | Ayr United | 1-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| 0 | 15/07/2025 | Scotland | League Cup | 19:45 | Forfar Athletic | St. Mirren | 0-0 | 4-2 | 3-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 1 | 15/07/2025 | Europe | Champions League | 20:00 | Budućnost | Noah | 2-3 | 2-2 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| 0 | 15/07/2025 | Ecuador | Primera B | 21:30 | Chacaritas | Leones del Norte | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| 0 | 15/07/2025 | Asia | EAFF E-1 Football Championship Women | 23:00 | Chinese Taipei W | China W | 1-0 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 3-0 |
| 0 | 15/07/2025 | Brazil | Serie B | 23:30 | Cuiabá | Amazonas | 2-0 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| 0 | 15/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 00:00 | Lionsbridge | 4-0 | 5-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 3-0 | 4-0 | 2-0 | |
| 0 | 15/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 00:30 | Ocean City Nor'easters | Hudson Valley Hammers | 2-1 | 1-1 | 3-1 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| 0 | 15/07/2025 | USA | USL League Two | 00:30 | Western Mass Pioneers | Long Island Rough Riders | 1-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 |
